The gamblification of the country will go down as one of the darker chapters of USA.
Isn't this just the result of unregulated capitalism?
Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
281–290 of 517 posts
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#282Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you are underappreciating how "manipulation of poly market odds" can be destructive when you are betting on geopolitics. Here this means that every decision is now a conflict of interest, and that doing the unpredictable (politically, economically etc) has a financial incentive for potential insiders. Sounds pretty dangerous to me.
On the other hand we have had stock markets forever. Sure you couldn't directly bet on e.g. if trump would invade iran, but you could indirectly bet on it by betting on things like the price of oil. I dont think this is a new threat.
Comparing crusty old stock markets to the mass appeal of shiny, low-barrier-to-entry Polymarket is somewhat naive.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#283[dead]
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#284I read the article but failed to grasp what exactly the disaster is that America would be walking into. Is the reliability of Polymarket predictions overhyped? Sure. Is there manipulation of Polymarket odds by some people? Most likely there is. But to say that this is a disaster that America is walking into is nothing else but clickbait.
The disaster is the consequences of people treating the data generated by these prediction markets as revealing some sort of insight into future events, rather than just a silly game played by silly people.
It's actually not a terrible idea to take some insights from prediction market data.
For example, you can expect the data to closely correlate to poll results for elections, because when it doesn't... people will notice and correct it.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#285Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…
Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#286Having a "betting" market whereby someone is in complete control of the outcome is just asking for it to be gamed. Betting should be on unpredictable events.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you are underappreciating how "manipulation of poly market odds" can be destructive when you are betting on geopolitics. Here this means that every decision is now a conflict of interest, and that doing the unpredictable (politically, economically etc) has a financial incentive for potential insiders. Sounds pretty dangerous to me.
On the other hand we have had stock markets forever. Sure you couldn't directly bet on e.g. if trump would invade iran, but you could indirectly bet on it by betting on things like the price of oil. I dont think this is a new threat.
It was the crash of the stock markets that eventually created the social situation that pushed people into WW.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#288I'm kind of surprised the article doesn't spell out why these are "prediction markets". They're prediction markets because it used to be that what they were doing was illegal. It was illegal to just set up a gambling website in the US and so these "prediction markets" were the same thing as crypto, masking what was really happening behind some tech speak. In the same way that in the crypto market you regularly get behaviour that would get you locked up if it were to occur on the CME, what happens on these prediction markets would be illegal if you were just a betting company.
The reason they're getting big now though, is because we know none of those regulations are going to be enforced. So through regulartory arbitrage, these gambling sites are just going to eat the entire regulated industry until nothing is left.
It used to be Harry Enten's former boss would joke about Scottish teens, when talking about betting markets because frankly, the betting markets didn't seem predictive and were so niche, it seemed like the people on them were generally just betting with no idea what they were betting on.
But today, let's face it, soon we're going to see a contract on whether the S&P goes up or down tomorrow, and when you have that contract, gamblers are going to be betting on it instead of going to Robinhood and buying some Puts.
It's a real test to see if what all those people who talk about the halo effect of trusted well regulated markets are actually correct. The conventional wisdom is that most of the users of these sites are going to get their faces ripped off, and the companies will get very rich doing that.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#289I am broadly in favor of the existence of prediction markets. They are powerful tools for forecasting complex events that can help enrich and empower folks from across a range of backgrounds.
The article has two core points, but fails to go deep enough in addressing either. This leads to a _somewhat_ incorrect scapegoating of prediction markets rather than acknowledging head on some more core issues with the state of American journalism. Bullet (1) addresses this core issue while bullet (2) tries to suggest some ways in which these prediction markets can better harnessed to serve the interests of journalists and readers/viewers. IMO the first point is far more important than the second to understand the broader challenges.
1. The centralization and roll-up of American media has led to a dangerous monoculture where truth and accuracy risk being compromised by pressure from big business as well as politicians.
This is by design. It is important for folks to recognize that these are systematic efforts to denigrate and marginalize critical/skeptical voices by individuals with tremendous amounts of wealth and power. A prime non-journalism example of this is the persecution and harassment of short sellers (like Andrew Left) in public markets.
2. Prediction markets are not being described / addressed with sufficient uncertainty. The article touches on this, but fails to go so far as to suggest a fix. Prediction markets should, as the editors/implementers at orgs in the article suggest they do, serve as another data point rather than the whole story.
They should be addressed with the skepticism applied to any source (a lot of "journalists" don't even do this anymore though) with the source, values and market depth questioned.
Editorial standards need to be improved to accommodate this (don't report on very thin markets, acknowledge high amounts of uncertainty, signs of manipulation, and provide a bit of market structure analysis education to readers. All of this is more feasible than ever with good analysis tooling that can be re-appropriated from what professional market analysts (and gamblers) use to assess their odds.
If journalists want to add market information to their reporting then great, just do it responsibly instead of yeeting some number from strangers on the internet.
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Fight back by voting with your dollars and speak up in favor of the truth. Boycott garbage sources and platforms that are trying to one-shot your friends/parents and support strong investigative and local journalism with your money. Talk to your friends and family and encourage them to do the same. Voting with your dollars and presence is one of the most powerful tools you have in our heavily market based society.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#290Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…
Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.
Except when "gambling adicts" end up as a cover for money laundering and funneling cash to people to buy influence.