This will be fun to look back on in a few years. Making concrete predictions in a market moving this fast is a minor act of courage, so much respect.
Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
281–290 of 552 posts
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#282I remember when Netflix took out a whole page ad for their Orange is the new Black show. John Oliver had a piece on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_F5GxCwizc This is a natural extension of it. But what is revolutionary is the scale that this is now possible. We have so many people out there who now blindly trust the output of an LLM (how many colleagues have you had proudly telling you: I asked Claude and this i…
> slowly they'll become more part of the text Wouldn't that be quite challenging in terms of engineering? Given these people have been chasing AGI it would be a considerable distraction to pivot into hacking into the guts of the output to dynamically push particular product. Furthermore it would degrade their product. Furthermore you could likely keep prodding the LLM to then diss the product being advertised, especi…
You could run a second lightweight model to inject ads (as minor tweaks) into the output of the primary powerful model.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a collective action problem. If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money.
>If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money. Does this actually work? Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts. How does giving…
This is how we had a major boom in middle-class wealth int he US post WW2.
If you are only selling coconuts, a single raw material, yes, you will run into supply constraints such that prices go up. But that isn't how economics works. Your zero-sum economics example is only applicable in short-term scenarios: over the longer term, new industries develop to solve persistent problems that people are willing to pay to solve.
Money solves the problems of the people that have the problems. If the problem is 'we need to eat', producers will diversify into new food sources to meet the demand, solving the problem, and capturing the money of the people who have that problem.
There is an enormous space of problems people have which cannot be solved due to lack of access to money. Increasing costs in childcare, elder care, and education are good examples.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can still derive a lot of info without having possession of the data through the use of PETs. There's a reason why companies like Google and Tik Tok make heavy use of PETs for their advertising products.
"PETs"?
Yeah, I have no idea what this acronym stands for.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#285Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can still derive a lot of info without having possession of the data through the use of PETs. There's a reason why companies like Google and Tik Tok make heavy use of PETs for their advertising products.
"PETs"?
So that's how my CAT and DOG aquired their new shiny toys.
They sold my info.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a collective action problem. If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money.
>If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money. Does this actually work? Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts. How does giving…
If the economy is 100% coconuts — all supply is coconuts, all demand is coconuts — then coconuts are all. Business owners sell coconuts in exchange for coconuts in order to acquire more coconuts. Employees are paid in coconuts which they trade for more coconuts. Paying workers more coconuts gives them more of what they want, which is coconuts, that they turn around and spend on coconuts.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
>If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money. Does this actually work? Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts. How does giving…
If the economy is 100% coconuts — all supply is coconuts, all demand is coconuts — then coconuts are all. Business owners sell coconuts in exchange for coconuts in order to acquire more coconuts. Employees are paid in coconuts which they trade for more coconuts. Paying workers more coconuts gives them more of what they want, which is coconuts, that they turn around and spend on coconuts.
That's exactly the problem. At the end of the day, unless you increase production of "stuff" (or coconuts), there isn't going to be magically more "stuff" (or coconuts) to go around just because people are shuffling "stuff" (or coconuts) around.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#288Earlier quoted context omitted.
who would pivot to selling ads if AGI was in reach? These orgs are burning a level of funding that is looking to fulfil dreams, ads is a pragmatic choice that implies a the moonshot isn't in range yet.
Because AGI is still some years away even if you are optimistic; and OpenAI must avoid going to the ground in the meantime due to lack of revenue. Selling ads and believing that AGI is reachable in the near future is not incompatible.
>Because AGI is still some years away
For years now, proponents have insisted that AI would improve at an exponential rate. I think we can now say for sure that this was incorrect.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a collective action problem. If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money.
>If everyone pays higher wages, there's a greater supply of money for buying stuff / solving problems (assuming the higher wages aren't eaten by rents). No individual form recoups all of the higher wages they pay their workers, obviously, but there's a larger market for the goods of everyone has more money. Does this actually work? Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts. How does giving…
> Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts.
This is why nobody takes economists seriously. What you lose in simplifying down to this model is literally everything. The coconut economy has zero predictive power.
In the real world, distribution effects dramatically affect the functioning of the economy, because workers are also consumers and owners of capital are siphoning off the purchasing power of their customers. Productivity isn’t the question in the modern economy - we’re already massively overproducing just about everything - our problem is both our wealth and production allocations are borderline suicidal.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the economy is 100% coconuts — all supply is coconuts, all demand is coconuts — then coconuts are all. Business owners sell coconuts in exchange for coconuts in order to acquire more coconuts. Employees are paid in coconuts which they trade for more coconuts. Paying workers more coconuts gives them more of what they want, which is coconuts, that they turn around and spend on coconuts.
That's exactly the problem. At the end of the day, unless you increase production of "stuff" (or coconuts), there isn't going to be magically more "stuff" (or coconuts) to go around just because people are shuffling "stuff" (or coconuts) around.
I don't understand what compels you to continue down this line of thought when its obvious flaws have been so clearly elaborated by other commenters.