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The next two years of software engineering

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Re: The next two years of software engineering

#281

Post by sanderjd »

iknowSFR wrote: post #133
miki123211 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a professional programmer, I think both are useful in different scenarios. You're maintaining a large, professional codebase? You definitely shouldn't be vibe coding. The fact that some people are is a genuine problem. You want a simple app that you and your friends will use for a few weeks and throw away? Sure, you can probably vibe code something in 2 hours instead of paying for a SaaS. Both have their place.

I’m seeing vibe coding redefine what the product manager is doing. Specifically, adding solution execution to its existing strategy and decision making responsibilities. The PM puts solutions in front of a customer and sees what sticks, then hands over the concept to engineering to bake into the larger code base. The primary change here is no longer relying on interviews and research to make product decisions that en…

Yes!

I think the next step is to realize that this kind of product manager role is one that more "engineers" should be willing to take on themselves. It's pretty clear why user interviews and research and product requirement docs are not obviously within the wheelhouse of technical people, but building lots of prototypes and getting feedback is a much better fit!

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#282

Post by sanderjd »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #211
spacebanana7 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally the demand for software engineers has increased as their productivity has increased, looking back over the past few decades. There seems to be effectively infinite demand for software from consumers and enterprises so the cheaper it gets the more they buy. If we doubled agricultural productivity globally we'd need to have fewer farmers because there's no way we can all eat twice as much food. But we can abs…

I have been around for “the past few decades”. Then you saw the rapid growth of the internet, mobile and BigTech. Just from the law of large numbers, BigTech isn’t going to grow exponentially like it did post 2010. It’s copium to think that with the combination of AI and oversupply of “good enough” developers, that it won’t be harder for developers to get jobs. We are seeing it now. It wasn’t this bad after the dot c…

I think the better way to think of this is whether it will be harder for people who are good at using AI tools to accomplish things with computers to get jobs. Maybe, but I don't think so. I think this skill set will be useful in every line of work.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#283

Post by justin66 »

smeeagain2 wrote: post #225
swah wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There must be "dozens of us" with this fear right now. I'm kinda surprised there isn't a rapid growing place for us to discuss this... (Youtube, X account, Discord place..)

[flagged]

> "going back to school" to learn what I already know pretty damn well already, given that I've been programming since I was 8

It's small consolation if sitting in a classroom is something you truly hate, but the guys who are programming pros before they go into a CS program are very often the ones who do really well and get the most out of it.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#284

Post by bjt12345 »

I honestly think middle management will be where AI causes job cuts.

In today's corporate environment, 70% of the costs are in management and admin muddlement, do we really think these "people skills" translate into anything useful in an AI economy?

The junior devs have far more hope.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#285

Post by AstroBen »

maciejzj wrote: post #143

TBH, it all feels like a huge gamble at this point. Neither skills, education, institutional ties, nor current employment can guarantee a stable foundation for life. This hits harder depending on how much money, social capital, or debt you accumulated before this volatility began. If you’ve paid off your debts, bought a house, and stabilized your family life, you’re gambling with how comfortable the coming years will…

Fresh grads will be fine regardless. You're okay to start over from scratch at 25. 42 on the other hand is tough

I feel for the mid-career people with families to support. Can't imagine how stressful that would be

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#286

Post by sanderjd »

pydry wrote: post #207
afro88 wrote: post #177

> The bottom line: Junior developer hiring could collapse as AI automates entry-level tasks If AI automated entry-level tasks from today, that just means "entry-level" means something different now. It doesn't mean entry-level ceases to exist. Entey-level as we know it, but not entry-level in general.

Entry level jobs have been in decline for years though. I used to work on teams which were 50% entry level. Then just one. Then all senior teams became the norm. This all happened after I became senior but before AI came along.

Yeah this is truly my biggest concern. I think it's really bad.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#287

Post by popalchemist »

hncoder12345 wrote: post #173
_heimdall wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you didn't like working with computers, then you probably made the wrong choice. This doesn't match what I have seen in other industries. Many auto mechanics I know drive old Buicks or Ford's with the 4.6l v8 because the cars are reliable and the last thing they want to do on a day off is have to work on their own car. I know a few people in other trades like plumbers, electricians, and chefs and the pattern hol…

Exactly this. I love writing code and solving problems. In my 20s and very early 30s I worked a lot of long hours and tried my best to always be learning new things and upskilling but it's never ending. It's hard sometimes to not look back and think about the hours I spent on code instead of building stronger friendships and relationships.

Every career path presents you with some version of this opportunity cost dilemma. The good news is you are not stuck - you can recalibrate to allow more of what you now know you want, while still maintaining a grip on the part of the job/career/enterprise that you actually excel at, and jettisoning the rest.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#288

Post by sanderjd »

cheschire wrote: post #151
thw_9a83c wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> More or less the same thing. Worse. The AI doesn't share any responsibility.

And can’t be mentored by the senior except in some ersatz flat text instruction files.

Yeah, this is a big thing. AIs (at the moment) don't learn. You wait for a new model to come out and hope it is better than the last one. But that isn't the same thing as a person learning over time.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#289

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

sanderjd wrote: post #282
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been around for “the past few decades”. Then you saw the rapid growth of the internet, mobile and BigTech. Just from the law of large numbers, BigTech isn’t going to grow exponentially like it did post 2010. It’s copium to think that with the combination of AI and oversupply of “good enough” developers, that it won’t be harder for developers to get jobs. We are seeing it now. It wasn’t this bad after the dot c…

I think the better way to think of this is whether it will be harder for people who are good at using AI tools to accomplish things with computers to get jobs. Maybe, but I don't think so. I think this skill set will be useful in every line of work.

That doesn’t solve the problem. It’s easy enough to be “good enough” at AI tools just like it’s easy enough to be a decent enterprise CRUD full stack/back end/mobile developer. It will still be hard to stand out from the crowd.

I saw this coming on the enterprise dev side where most people work back in 2015. Not AI of course, but the commoditization of development.

I started moving closer to the “business”, got experience in leading projects, soft skills, requirements gathering, AWS architecture etc.

I’m not saying the answer is to “learn cloud”. I am saying that it’s important to learn people skills and be the person trusted with strategy and don’t just be a code monkey pulling well defined tickets off the board.

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