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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#281

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #227
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is enough pain for the US that they wouldn't actually attack Pakistan These are the states whose Senators are in play this year [1]. Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none. Let's go one step further. Pakistan nukes Al Udeid and Camp Arifjan (both theoretically within ran…

> Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none. If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America In your scenario India did literally nothing. I know the rivalry but even then India has its own nukes and if India wasn't part of the plan then…

> then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

This isn't an option. Not within a nuclear window. The only bases within range are Al Udeid and Camp Arifjan. Hence its inclusion in the above scenario.

> then China would be genuinely pissed and a WW3 conflict can arise

This is tantamount to saying Pakistan can't actually retaliate. Which is my point. Pakistan's nuclear deterrent doesn't actually deter America. China does.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#282

Post by anonymous908213 »

jojobas wrote: post #279
hollerith wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason Mao helped Pyongyang still applies: namely, it would make China less secure to have on its border a regime allied to a great power other than China.

They already have a border with Pakistan and got exactly zero problems from it (if anything, China is the one to stir up shit on that border). You seem to be repeating Putin-style propaganda points. Stalin and Mao were never threatened by the West really, that was part of the Marx-mandated global commie land grab.

Saying "The West is no threat to anyone" at the same time you're advocating for an invasion and abduction of a country's leader is certainly a position to hold. Not a very internally consistent or convincing one, though. And I suppose Vietnam never happened in your constructed reality.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#283

Post by lovich »

adventured wrote: post #82
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Nuclear deterrent is absurd. You have to assume everyone is willing to die over every single thing short of obliteration. So what's the scenario then? Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Maduro. Venezuela launches its nukes, everyone dies on both sides. Please, explain that laughable premise. Everyone in Venezuela dies for Maduro? Go on, explain it, I'll wait. Back in reality: Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Madu…

Are you trying to argue that M.A.D. hasn't been an effective deterrent to violence for decades?

Do you think the US and EU would have hesitated to send enough arms to keep Ukraine comfortably fending off Russia if they weren't afraid of the nuclear threat that Russia kept toying with?

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#284

Post by jojobas »

anonymous908213 wrote: post #277
jojobas wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Us has these nifty things called aircraft carriers, which were used to capture Maduro as well. They can be in international waters, the choppers fly quite far. China would not retaliate against the US.

That is a bold assertion to make considering China literally did retaliate against the US in North Korea once already, to the tune of war. Kidnapping heads of states is an act of war. Venezuela can't defend itself, but China certainly will do whatever is necessary to secure its vassal if the alternative is NK collapsing and having US military bases on its border. You also rule out the possibility of an invasion of Se…

Other than by launching nukes (and getting 10x on themselves) China has no capability to attack the US. I don't think attacking SK is unlikely because it's "unfair", but rather because there's no incentive to do so. The concept of "if you attack Cuba we'll attack Europe" is an old playbook for the commies, and I think was always a bluff.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#285

Post by acdha »

jojobas wrote: post #272
the_af wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From where would an hypothetical operation to kidnap Kim be launched? Likely from SK or Japan, right? So yes, China could retaliate. The operation against Maduro was launched from countries in the region aligned with the US.

Us has these nifty things called aircraft carriers, which were used to capture Maduro as well. They can be in international waters, the choppers fly quite far. China would not retaliate against the US.

China knows about carriers, and tracks them carefully. They have built a variety of weapons to sink them, too, but I don’t think they’d need to use them: note how the raid on Maduro went so quietly that people have been looking for evidence that some of the Venezuelan military were in on it? North Korea has built up a lot more paranoia and China wouldn’t need to sink a carrier, simply ensuring that the NK military knows what’s coming as soon as planes take off and communicates that in a way which makes it impossible for any potentially disloyal faction to act short of declaring a coup (you can’t “accidentally” miss something the entire chain of command knows about). I detest the NK government but I’d expect that to be a much bloodier fight, especially after a huge warning.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#286

Post by JumpCrisscross »

monocasa wrote: post #251
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that practically looks like Russia telling NATO what it's going to do Which is indistinguishable from a Russian first strike. Russia glassing Ukraine is about as rational as it launching a first strike. So serious people would have to weigh–based on incomplete information–whether Putin is still in charge and if tens of millions of lives might be saved if we neutralise their silos first. Outside nuclear holocaust, R…

> Which is indistinguishable from a Russian first strike. It's really not. Once they've launched, it's pretty clear where they're going. All NATO needs is enough time to respond, and they absolutely have that. > Outside nuclear holocaust, Russia, on launching a strategic nuclear strike on Ukraine, would have crossed a red line Beijing, New Delhi and Tehran each value. (The last because Russia's justification for glas…

> It's really not. Once they've launched, it's pretty clear where they're going

What are you basing this on? Even back when warheads were strictly ballistic we couldn't do that. Russia's arsenal, today, contains maneuverable warheads.

Flip it around: if we committed to a first strike on Russia and China, is there a world in which we wouldn't say it's to glass North Korea?

> All NATO needs is enough time to respond

This is not how strategic nuclear exchanges are ever modeled. Because it's now how strategic war plans are ever written.

Use it or lose it. Silo-based missiles are sitting ducks. By the time nukes are landing in Ukraine they could be landing across a good chunk of Europe and Turkey.

> If you look, their nuclear policy is to respond overwhelmingly to a nuclear strike

I'm not saying India will nuke Russia. I'm saying India and China would both exact a price from Russia for normalising nuclear war in the modern context. This has been repeatedly messaged by both in respect of the Ukraine invasion.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#287

Post by cr1895 »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #232
lawlessone wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a16z. Same reason this post got flagged and died. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46356858

wait whose a16z. Can you provide me more context about it? Also what was written in that comment if you can tell and why it died? Another quick question but is there no storage of flag/died posts on hackernews? Seems like its possible with things like https://hn.live/ or I saw some other website like this as well. Perhaps, something like this can store flag/dead posts but I am not really sure if it has any use case b…

>is there no storage of flag/died posts on hackernews?

they're not deleted, just hidden. you can toggle "showdead" in your profile settings.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#288

Post by nostrademons »

erxam wrote: post #41
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were. For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

Note that MAD only works when there are a small number of players. Once it gets up past around 12, a.) it becomes too easy to detonate a nuclear weapon and then blame somebody else to take the fall and b.) the chance of somebody doing something crazy and irrational becomes high. Same reason that oligopolies can have steady profit but once you have ~10-12 market players you enter perfect competition and inevitably get a price war.

There are 9 nuclear-armed states today. Likely this has set us on a path where nuclear war is inevitable.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#289

Post by refulgentis »

pamcake wrote: post #141
refulgentis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO the rest of the world isn't asleep. Denmark's prime minister said the same as you, for example. US just got roasted at UN by inter alia, France, with ~20 countries either speaking the same or asking to speak on it. That's just from 30s with front page of nytimes.com.

In EU, so far I believe only the PM of Spain had the backbone to speak properly with anything that could be considered "strongly worded", proving that it's possible. The others have been variants of "Celebrating liberation of the Venezuelan people from the illegitimate dictator, a new dawn for democracy! (oh and everyone (not naming names) please behave and try to be mindful of international law and human rights from…

It’s really dumb I’m sitting at -2 and the top reply is about a Macron tweet from 2 days ago, lying and saying no one else from Europe has said anything, and lying and saying anything besides the King of Spain was actually celebrating. You’re making stuff up. Full stop. You could easily have googled either thing I mentioned. You didn’t, choosing to free associate instead. May you reap what you sow.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#290

Post by the_af »

jojobas wrote: post #272
the_af wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From where would an hypothetical operation to kidnap Kim be launched? Likely from SK or Japan, right? So yes, China could retaliate. The operation against Maduro was launched from countries in the region aligned with the US.

Us has these nifty things called aircraft carriers, which were used to capture Maduro as well. They can be in international waters, the choppers fly quite far. China would not retaliate against the US.

> Us has these nifty things called aircraft carriers, which were used to capture Maduro as well.

It wasn't just carriers in Maduro's case. The operation was carried from multiple places, including out of Caribbean countries aligned with the US. The US was literally signing deals with those countries months in advance.

Who would those countries be in an hypothetical NK strike? Because those countries would suffer retaliation.

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