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Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

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Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#281

Post by xracy »

vineyardmike wrote: post #207
stocksinsmocks wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think it’s possible to know anything conclusive about the safety for a few decades and a generation or two of affected kids can be observed. Given that finding harm would embarrass important aristocrats, I don’t think that evidence would ever be found in the foreseeable future. That mRNA and lipid nano particles were never found to be safe until the exact moment of crisis is awfully convenient for its investo…

Where do you get decades? That study says 200 days.

I interpret this as the comment saying "we won't know how this affected things until decades from now." Which can likely be attributed to existing vaccine skepticism and is unlikely to result in them changing their opinion in the next ever.

What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID. They feel like they're being asked something risky in a vacuum, when in fact, they're being asked for something with (as best as we can tell) limited risk against a backdrop of a dangerous virus that killed millions and caused a global pandemic.

Even if they could demonstrably prove the vaccine created a higher risk of outcomes for people who took it, the risk compared to getting COVID is de minimus, and the likelihood of getting COVID is high. I would be surprised if there was a significant population of people who had avoided it at this point.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#282

Post by xracy »

dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

"bUT wE StILl DoN't KnoW tHe LOnG TeRM EffECts oF ThE VacCInES."

I swear these folks will be on their death beds 50 years in the future claiming this. There will be no amount of evidence or time that matters to them.

Someone can prove me wrong, and tell me exactly what evidence would convince them that the vaccines are safer than the alternative.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#283

Post by gus_massa »

runako wrote: post #226
mberning wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the part that people doubt is the highly compressed timeline for approval. Hard to anticipate long term effects when something has only been tested for a short period of time. Also during this time the pitch degraded from “you won’t get sick or spread the disease” to “well I still got sick, but it probably would have been worse without the vaccine”. It is actually crazy to think about in retrospect.

> during this time the pitch degraded from “you won’t get sick or spread the disease” to “well I still got sick, but it probably would have been worse without the vaccine” This line of thinking is so odd to me. Would you have preferred communications to use inaccurate, outdated points for the sake of consistency? When honest interlocutors learn more about something, they communicate details more accurately. What woul…

I'd like accurate communication from the beginning.

>> “you won’t get sick or spread the disease”

I read that many times. It was a totally unrealistic promise, because not even all the other vaccines do that, even after years of research and improvements. (In particular, here is a big trade off in the inyectable vs oral vaccine for polio.)

Who is the highest ranking person that said it? I guess it was not one of the researchers. Perhaps it was a politician that is probably a lawyer and not a medical doctor, or perhaps a tv show host, or perhaps a random internet commenter. Who hallucinated that?

>> “well I still got sick, but it probably would have been worse without the vaccine”

Actually that was what the trials show before the vaccines were approved. I think they had like 50k persons each. The number of deaths was too small to have a statistical significative result in the death toll. It was enough to have a statistical significative reduction of hospitalizations, like a 60% reduction in old style inactivated virus vaccines to 95% in the new style mRNA vaccines. And remember that hospitalization+ventilator is really bad.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#284

Post by xracy »

albeebe1 wrote: post #240
pjc50 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would win, the combined efforts of the best scientists in the field, or innuendo from a fancy markov model? You could at least paste the points here.

For me, it’s a way to break down and analyze articles more critically, not to pick a side.

I think this reads to me as a way for you to couch your ignorance as criticism while learning nothing from reading a study like this. Why not do this for your own biases?

What metrics do you focus on while reading an article that result in you confirming your own preconceived ideas?

If you have to come at an article like this in a hostile way, then you're not learning anythign about it, you're just confirming your own biases. I think I would recommend that you focus all of these criticisms inward at your own biases in terms of what you react to and need to explain and see if it's explained in the paper above. Then see if you find yourself convinced by the scientific method that they undertook?

Otherwise you're prepping yourself to continue living in an echo chamber.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#285

Post by xracy »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #150

It’s sad that these days anytime health studies or recommendations come out I half to make sure it’s not from an official US government source. But to be honest even before the current shit show I was taking recommendations from foreign health departments when it came to COVID. I got a booster shot after getting the J and J vaccine before it was officially recommended by the CDC because I saw other countries’ health…

I think it's pretty safe to assume given the conclusion that the US gov't had nothing to do with it. It wouldn't be a headline if they did.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#286

Post by sdo72 »

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #272
sdo72 wrote: post #247

I don't consider myself an anti-vaxxer. But I do have doubt in vaccines especially mRNA vaccines nowadays, and I wish these studies do more than just this. I have 4 kids, and 3 of them got vaccinated for the covid (1 is a baby 2 years old) for the very first time with Delta. They struggle for weeks to recover, they get tired, they seem to have heart related symptoms. Eventually, those went away after months. The baby…

I'm having a hard time following your second paragraph, but I don't see where you're questioning the cause of these issues to be covid itself instead of the vaccines? That's my biggest problem with the "I now have X problem after the vaccine" crowd; quick to blame the vaccine, but they never question whether it was the virus itself that caused it. My dad is one of these people and it infuriates me to no end that he d…

We all started getting weird symptoms after the vaccines, not after having covid, you got it backward.

I am not quick to blame the vaccine. If you take the vaccine and immediately after you start develop symptoms, then the chances that the vaccine are doing something strange to the body are very likely, not the virus infection.

And these don't get diagnosed with Covid or having Covid symptoms before, it must be something related to the vaccine. That's evidence, not just observation.

I went to UCI, SoCal Kaiser hospitals and cardiologists 6-7 times, a bunch of tests, no doctors could explain why.

I took the vaccines myself, I am no anti-vaxxer, and when it comes to this situation, I don't see there's conclusive studies about the vaccines.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#287

Post by [deleted] »

jibal wrote: post #248
sdo72 wrote: post #247

I don't consider myself an anti-vaxxer. But I do have doubt in vaccines especially mRNA vaccines nowadays, and I wish these studies do more than just this. I have 4 kids, and 3 of them got vaccinated for the covid (1 is a baby 2 years old) for the very first time with Delta. They struggle for weeks to recover, they get tired, they seem to have heart related symptoms. Eventually, those went away after months. The baby…

> I don't consider myself an anti-vaxxer. But you write anti-vax comments filled with the usual anti-vax post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacies.

[deleted]

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#288

Post by ifyoubuildit »

xracy wrote: post #281
vineyardmike wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you get decades? That study says 200 days.

I interpret this as the comment saying "we won't know how this affected things until decades from now." Which can likely be attributed to existing vaccine skepticism and is unlikely to result in them changing their opinion in the next ever. What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID. They feel like they're being asked something risky in a vacuum, when i…

> What I think a lot of people who are anti-vax miss is the risk of the vaccine compared to the risk of COVID

Why do people still frame this as either/or? How many people out there didn't get covid after they got some number of shots?

The only real scenario is covid with n shots, where n >= 0. In other words, when you got covid, how many shots had you gotten.

(Not anti vax myself, though generally avoid whatever drugs I reasonably can)

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#289

Post by triceratops »

HaZeust wrote: post #271
triceratops wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would they calculate 4 year all-cause mortality on people who got vaccinated after Nov 2021? In case you haven't looked at a calendar recently, it's December 2025 now.

They excluded initial doses before May 2021, as well; in case you look at a calendar - that fits the criteria. Something doesn't square.

My memory is failing me right now. When did they start vaccinating en masse?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#290

Post by acjohnson55 »

btilly wrote: post #263
acjohnson55 wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Papers like this are designed to fit into the conventions that allow knowledge to compound. Not that the conventions are perfect at doing this. I would suggest that rather than changing this convention in a big way, there needs to be good pathways for communicating the most important takeaways to the general public. Unfortunately, there's kind of a chasm between academia and popular science.

With all due respect, I disagree. You are providing the standard excuse. It is our job to advance knowledge. It is someone else's job to communicate it to a broader audience. It's just too bad that nobody is stepping up and doing that other job. I don't buy it. In my experience, most scientific papers can easily be rewritten into simpler language. The act of trying to do so often catches mistakes - thereby immediatel…

I'm not saying it's someone else's job to communicate to a lay audience. Simply that a research paper doesn't have to be a self-contained device for doing that and accurately describing the research to people who already have a lot of background knowledge on the topic and methods.

I guess I will say that I have thought for a long time that serializing research into linear documents seems archaic at this point.

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