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You are the scariest monster in the woods

jamie.ideasasylum.com

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Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#281

Post by cindyllm »

znort_ wrote: post #261
mediaman wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't need fossil records. We have a clear chain of evolved brain structures in today's living mammals. You'd have to invent some fantastical tale of how God is trying to trick us by putting such clearly connected brain structures in a series of animals that DNA provides clear links for an evolutionary path. I'm sympathetic to the idea that God started the whole shebang (that is, the universe), because it's rather…

>clear links for an evolutionary path there are clear links for at least 2 evolutionary paths: bird brain architecture is very different from that of mammals and some are among the smartest species on the planet. they have sophisticated language and social relationships, they can deceive (meaning they can put themselves inside another's mind and act accordingly), they solve problems and they invent and engineer tools…

[dead]

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#282

Post by adornKey »

ViktorRay wrote: post #87
Flamingoat wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it is not accurate at all. There are some people that do all of these sure, however the vast majority of people live pretty ordinary lives where they do very little of what is described. I actually think it is very intellectually lazy to be this cynical.

I think it is partially true. The vast majority of human beings don’t act like that. But it seems the ones in power or close proximity to power do. This is why it is important to have societies where various forms of power are managed carefully. Limited constitutional government with guaranteed freedoms and checks and balances for example. Regulations placed on mega corporations is another example. Restrictions to pr…

I don't think there's much secret evil out there. I've taken a look at some people that were officially in power for something - they were nice handsome people - sometimes a bit stupid. I think the biggest problem is stupidity. Stupid people in power will do powerful stupid things - while they think that they're doing something great. The more intelligent ones can change their minds quickly if you feed them with good arguments - but that's not easy, because they often live in a bubble and are out of reach.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#283

Post by hearsathought »

woeirua wrote: post #44

There's this weird disconnect in tech circles, where everyone is deathly afraid of AGI, but totally asleep on the very real possibility of thermonuclear war breaking out in Europe or Asia over the next 10 years. There's already credible evidence that we came perilously close to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine which likely would've spiraled out of control. AGI might happen, but the threat of nuclear war…

> There's already credible evidence that we came perilously close to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine which likely would've spiraled out of control.

Spiral out of control in what way? Wouldn't it have ended the war immediately.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#284

Post by aradox66 »

nonethewiser wrote: post #233
woeirua wrote: post #44

There's this weird disconnect in tech circles, where everyone is deathly afraid of AGI, but totally asleep on the very real possibility of thermonuclear war breaking out in Europe or Asia over the next 10 years. There's already credible evidence that we came perilously close to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine which likely would've spiraled out of control. AGI might happen, but the threat of nuclear war…

>There's already credible evidence that we came perilously close to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine which likely would've spiraled out of control. I do agree nukes are a far more realistic threat. So this is kind of an aside and doesn't really undermine your point. But I actually think we widely misunderstand the dynamic of using nuclear weapons. Nukes haven't been used for a long time and everyone kin…

It's not an assumption, it's an extremely developed international field of tactical and strategic study that leads to these conclusions

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#285

Post by foxyv »

BoxOfRain wrote: post #191
foxyv wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the best argument against us ever finding AGI is that the search space is too big and the dead ends are too many. It's like wandering through a monstrously huge maze with hundreds of very convincingly fake exits that lead to pit traps. The first "AGI" may just be a very convincing Chinese room that kills all of humanity before we can ever discover an actual AGI. The necessary conditions for "Kill all Humanity…

Is there a plausible situation where a humanity-killing superintelligence isn't vulnerable to nuclear weapons? If a genuine AGI-driven human extinction scenario arises, what's to stop the world's nuclear powers from using high-altitude detonations to produce a series of silicon-destroying electromagnetic pulses around the globe? It would be absolutely awful for humanity don't get me wrong, but it'd be a damn sight be…

I think it's much more likely that a non-AGI platform will kill us before AGI even happens. I'm thinking the doomsday weapon from Doctor Strangelove more than Terminator.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#286

Post by myrmidon »

Juliate wrote: post #62
myrmidon wrote: post #13

I struggle to understand how people can just dismiss the possibility of artificial intelligence. Human cognition was basically bruteforced by evolution-- why would it be impossible to achieve the exact same result in silicon, especially after we already demonstrated some parts of those results (e.g. use of language) that critically set us apart from other animals? I'm not buying the whole "AI has no agency" line eith…

> Human cognition was basically bruteforced by evolution You center cognition/intelligence on humans as if it was the pinacle of it, rather than include the whole lot of other species (that may have totally different, or adjacent cognition models). Why? How so? > As soon as profit can be made by transfering decision power into an AIs hand There's an ironic, deadly, Frankensteinesque delusion in this very premise.

> You center cognition/intelligence on humans as if it was the pinacle of it

That's not my viewpoint, from elsewhere in the thread:

Cognition is (to me) not the most impressive and out-of-reach evolutionary achievement: That would be how our (and animals) bodies are self-assembling, self-repairing and self-replicating, with an impressive array of sensors and actors in a highly integrated package.

I honestly believe our current technology is much closer to emulating a human brain than it is to building a (non-intelligent) cat.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#287

Post by owenfi »

I like this fairytale as an analogy for AGI, but this article misses the point.

We are the mouse.

> I don’t really believe in the threat of AGI Just like the mouse doesn't believe in the Gruffalo (until it shows up).

The mouse goes through the woods scaring the hypothetically-more-dangerous creatures with its stories (us, using our intellect, weapons, destroying habitats) until the real Gruffalo shows up.

For a bit, the mouse "uses" the new tool to scare the animals even more (as alluded, human with tool, scarier than without).

Eventually the mouse scares the Gruffalo away (analogous to the brief window when we think we have AGI under control).

The next (unwritten) chapter probably doesn't look so good for the mouse (when the gruffalo grows to enormous size, eats him and all the other animals in the woods on a sandwich, and sucks up the rest of the resources on the planet.)

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#288

Post by moralestapia »

myrmidon wrote: post #13

I struggle to understand how people can just dismiss the possibility of artificial intelligence. Human cognition was basically bruteforced by evolution-- why would it be impossible to achieve the exact same result in silicon, especially after we already demonstrated some parts of those results (e.g. use of language) that critically set us apart from other animals? I'm not buying the whole "AI has no agency" line eith…

>why would it be impossible to achieve the exact same result in silicon

Because there might be a non-material component involved.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#289

Post by Spivak »

olooney wrote: post #278

I think this is interesting and partially true: humans are scary. But it's important to remember the opposite is true as well: humans are the most cooperative species out there by a wide margin. Eusocial insects and pack animals are in a distant 2nd and 3rd place: they generally don't cooperate much past their immediate kin group. Only humans create vast networks of trade and information sharing. Only humans establis…

I'm not sure if it's your intention but this reads as a strong critique of the technolibertarianism world philosophy that dominates our industry. We lose something by replacing high-trust cooperative systems with ones that are mutually antagonistic. We fall into the bad square of the prisoners dilemma by not only not exorcising the defectors but holding them up as the highest moral good and the example to follow.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#290

Post by abbycurtis33 »

slow_typist wrote: post #132
abbycurtis33 wrote: post #104

What I'm scared by now is non-sentient intelligence, which I never thought would be this capable and still obviously dumb, which really makes it dangerous.

Is sentient intelligence less scary than the non-sentient variant? Or is non-sentient intelligence already scary enough?

I hope we can reason with sentient intelligence.
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