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Nine things I learned in ninety years

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Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#281

Post by jrussino »

bdangubic wrote: post #272
mfro wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you trying to say with this, that you disagree, or that it's an intelligent perspective afforded to those who are not hopeless? I don't see how anyone can disagree that the aggregate actions of your parents, your locality, your culture, your nation, play the largest role in the cards you are dealt from the beginning.

> If we make choices based on not just what's best for ourselves but what's best for all of us, we will all suddenly become more "lucky". I personally know handful of extremely lucky people who spent their entire lives doing the exact opposite of this

I think the point is that this only works in the aggregate. Individuals in a group/organization/society can make small positive decisions that improve the likelihood that any individual in that same group will get "lucky".

There's a sort of "freeloader" problem, though, which is that the ones who get "lucky" don't themselves have to be making positive choices. In fact, being a selfish individual in a group of generous ones can be an easy way to get ahead - as long as you can get away with it without being noticed or punished.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#282

Post by latexr »

mainecoder wrote: post #259
latexr wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistics without context can be misleading. It’s reasonable to assume that the cause is the prior situation which lead to it , not the act itself. Picture two scenarios: 1. A loving unmarried couple, regardless of gender, sexual orientation, or child bearing, lives in an affluent neighbourhood, in a rich country, have steady incomes, and decide to have a child. After ten years they decide “I love you so much. I don…

Proof by analogy is fraud" - Bjarne Stroustrup Yes; page 692 of TC++PL. A good analogy is an excellent way of illustrating an idea, but far too often such analogies are not accompanied by solid reasoning, data, etc

Analogies are seldom perfect but they are often useful. They help to illustrate a point. The world is not a programming language and most things can’t be ascertained by mathematical proofs.

But all that is irrelevant because what I posted above wasn’t an analogy. It was… A thought experiment? A purposefully exaggerated example? Anyway, not an analogy. Analogies compare two different things via a third thing they have in common, but here I used examples which are directly related to the subject matter. The point was to make it clear, via extreme but realistic examples, that correlation does not imply causation.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#283

Post by e40 »

ropable wrote: post #36

> what an outsized role is played by luck This speaks to me. So much of our life circumstances are beyond our control (parents, genetics, geography, society, wider economy, etc.) It's humbling, how much of our success or failure is influenced by pure chance.

> Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity

I know that quote is reductive, but I do find it is relevant to my life and what I observe in others. The opportunity part is what we usually call luck. Preparation is another matter, though. Many people just aren't prepared to take advantage of situations which present to them.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#284

Post by prewett »

darkwater wrote: post #229
flanked-evergl wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Being married or not is just signing a paper. If we ignore almost all of human history save for the past 50 years, then yes. If we redefine marriage to not mean what most humans that have ever used the word meant by it, then yes. But why would we do these things? If you call all relations between two human beings marriage, you gain nothing, you just lose a word. Marriage is a covenant between two people, a man and…

> If we ignore almost all of human history save for the past 50 years This seems pretty narrow-sighted and Christian-oriented.

To my knowledge, "marriage" has meant "a man + a woman for a lifetime" in most societies that I am aware of. (In the context of this conversation, I think the lifetime part is what the parent was talking about.) Frequently a man could have multiple marriages, but each was for a lifetime. It might be acceptable to have a mistresses outside the marriage (Rome), but the heirs came from the official wife. I'm told that the pre-Christian Irish renewed (or didn't) their marriages every year. Divorce also existed; I know that both the Romans and the Mosaic Law had divorces. But marriage was usually taken pretty seriously by all societies, especially agricultural ones, regardless of whether they were Christian. The idea that "it's just a piece of paper" seems to me to be fairly rare. Maybe the Romans had that (I think Cicero divorces his old wife for a new young one when he was old), and Jesus criticizes the Pharisees for no-fault divorces, but these seem unusual situations compared to most of history.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#285

Post by dctoedt »

larsnystrom wrote: post #165
ropable wrote: post #36

> what an outsized role is played by luck This speaks to me. So much of our life circumstances are beyond our control (parents, genetics, geography, society, wider economy, etc.) It's humbling, how much of our success or failure is influenced by pure chance.

On the other hand, many things attributed to chance are actually the aggregate effect of other people's choices. If we make choices based on not just what's best for ourselves but what's best for all of us, we will all suddenly become more "lucky". And vice versa, if we only think about ourselves that luck will diminish.

> not just what's best for ourselves but what's best for all of us

One can paraphrase the Summary of the Law (Luke 10:25-37) as, Seek the truth; face the facts; seek the best for others as for your self.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#286

Post by bigstrat2003 »

Kurtz79 wrote: post #40

Since he might not be known to most (especially a younger audience), the author is a writer best known for many of the Choose Your Own Adventure books that were hugely successful in the 80s. Jimmy Maher wrote about them recently https://www.filfre.net/2025/09/choose-your-own-adventure/

The original headline actually said that, before it got edited out. :/

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#287

Post by fpsvogel »

bluGill wrote: post #181
fpsvogel wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To take one of your examples, high school graduation rates vary from ~25% to ~98% in U.S. school districts. It's not because some districts have a lot more virtuous young people, but because some districts are poor and others are wealthy, among other factors. Even if one of those factors is virtuous parents, kids can't choose their parents. I'm not denying our moral agency, but it is often constrained by environment.…

No, but a few of those poor kids see the claim change their life instead of following their parents examples and those kids tend to do well. We see this most in immigrants where the parents come with nothing and barely get by but their kids despite going to the same bad schools do well

Adsolutely. I agree that our lives aren't determined by family background, and we can draw on many other resources, both within ourselves and from other people besides family.

If I overstated my point, it's only because I was pushing back against the idea that education, employment, and a traditional family are equally attainable by all, and if someone has failed in any of these areas, it's because they lack virtue compared to other people (many of whom had more advantageous starting points in life, but supposedly that doesn't matter).

Or in simpler terms, "poor people are poor because they're bad and they deserve it". It's a sentiment that's been very useful for the ultra-wealthy class, and detrimental to everyone else, not just the poor.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#288

Post by bigstrat2003 »

ErigmolCt wrote: post #87
ropable wrote: post #36

> what an outsized role is played by luck This speaks to me. So much of our life circumstances are beyond our control (parents, genetics, geography, society, wider economy, etc.) It's humbling, how much of our success or failure is influenced by pure chance.

It's wild how much of what we chalk up to merit is really just the invisible scaffolding of luck: being born in the right place, with the right wiring, at the right time...

There's certainly an element of luck. But every individual, no matter how unlucky their circumstances, has the opportunity to make good or bad choices from that starting point. It is not like people are powerless victims of the unlucky birth they had.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#289

Post by mfro »

bdangubic wrote: post #272
mfro wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you trying to say with this, that you disagree, or that it's an intelligent perspective afforded to those who are not hopeless? I don't see how anyone can disagree that the aggregate actions of your parents, your locality, your culture, your nation, play the largest role in the cards you are dealt from the beginning.

> If we make choices based on not just what's best for ourselves but what's best for all of us, we will all suddenly become more "lucky". I personally know handful of extremely lucky people who spent their entire lives doing the exact opposite of this

The point is not that individual luck plays no part. It's about what your environment offers you as a baseline, not accounting for individual luck.

Re: Nine things I learned in ninety years

#290

Post by unfitted2545 »

altacc wrote: post #227
vladms wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While strictly true, I wonder what does this sentence generates in the minds of the readers. I personally would prefer other formulations, because while I agree with the core, I think this idea should just reduce frustration if you don't succeed, while I am afraid it can be used as an excuse for not trying. Yes, you need luck, but if you never get out of your room/street/neighborhood/city/country, you might have less…

"I'm a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." - Thomas Jefferson There's lots of similar quotes throughout time, all about what you say in your list line: to be lucky you need to create as many opportunities as possible to get lucky. You can't win at dice if you never roll them.

He sure was lucky to be white. Do you think he could have rolled the dice if he was shackled up?
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