U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

Post by tzs » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 6:04 PM UTC

riazrizvi wrote: post #207

RC_ITR wrote: post #50

I think it's interesting that everyone's immediate reaction now-a-days is to assume incompetence or maliciousness, rather than curiosity at the root cause (very telling this attitude has even permeated a forum for supposed 'hackers'). A high-level is that 80% of the economy is very easy to track b/c it's not very volatile (teachers, for example). What we have seen is a huge surge in unpredictability in the most volat…

Explain to me please why job numbers aren’t simply a matter of querying the Federal social security database? A longstanding process of polling businesses for what they want to report, followed by corrections up to one year later, has got to be a pantomime to fudge the numbers.

Post by peterfirefly » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 6:04 PM UTC

ta1243 wrote: post #263

Arainach wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's much easier to destroy than build, and some things once destroyed can't be rebuilt. Trump's inconsistent tariff and policy flip flopping means no one trusts the US to behave rationally and predictably. The fact that the US population elected him a second time means that the US as a whole can't be trusted to behave like rational adults. Decades or centuries of reputation has been thrown away. That can't be change…

If a new face can reverse policy on a dime, then that reversal can be reversed a couple of years later. It's amazing how few people seem to understand this. Countries are oil tankers, they take years to turn even a little - and that's a good thing. In 2000 the world broadly knew what was going to happen, Gore and BushII would implement pretty much the same policies. Same thing in 2008 when it was McCain and Obama. Su…

Post by spicyusername » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 6:05 PM UTC

penguin202 wrote: post #163

cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

Last administration cooked the books on BLS numbers for nearly 2 years, issuing corrections and all that nobody paid attention to. They also redefined what a recession is during the last administration. Wasn't a news story then, but is now b/c trump.

    Last administration cooked the books on BLS numbers for nearly 2 years

Post by nullocator » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 6:06 PM UTC

jshen wrote: post #230

baron816 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The good news is that these economic problems are entirely the result of bad policies and can be reversed. If we were to also raise broad based taxes, it would allow the Fed to cut interest rates, stoking long term investment, loosen up the housing market (which would allow more people to move), lower the Federal deficit, and improve the trade balance (as if that actually mattered).

I don't believe it's entirely the result of bad policies, but you also left if vague. Which bad policies are entirely causing this in your opinion?

Post by dh2022 » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 6:07 PM UTC

ta1243 wrote: post #267

jghn wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember my parents being excited about the opportunity to refinance their mortgage to something in the high teens. And now these days headlines act like the apocalypse is occurring when mortgage rates are in the 6-7 range.

I'd rather owe 100k over 30 years at 15% than 300k at 4%.