Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 75 years is a long time. At lot can change. True, but population collapse specifically is a tough headwind. You can't make more 2055 30-year-olds unless they've already been conceived today, and those will be the parents of the 2100 45-year-olds. While a lot can change, it's unrealistic to assume a birth rate will skyrocket all of a sudden (China's at 1.18 per woman and US is only at 1.6). The painful part, the bad…
Why do you have the maximalist outlook that population must grow. All developed nations are looking at population crunches. All of them, and China and Russia as well. Reducing it to a Chinese problem is reductive. It’s a collective choice, and how is China doing better or worse than its peers?
For example, the dependency ratio changes, especially in an aging population. Look at what Japan's going through. A working married male in Japan might be taking care of both their immediately family and both their parents and their significant other's parents. It's a significant economic load and leads to significant issues around mental health and work-life balance.
We can also look toward Japan as a test bed too, as their GDP and standard of living does continue to rise despite an ongoing population decline. This is not an impossible situation to manage, but it does require strong and thoughtful leadership
There's also the lost of trade skills and workers in general needed to maintain current service-based infrastructure.
In the case of China, their population of nearly 1.5bil is projected to be halving within 75 years. This is a massive difference that will require recalibration of policy and infrastructure, whereas other countries might experience a significantly lower ratio of decline.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_consequences_of_popul...