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Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

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Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#281
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 75 years is a long time. At lot can change. True, but population collapse specifically is a tough headwind. You can't make more 2055 30-year-olds unless they've already been conceived today, and those will be the parents of the 2100 45-year-olds. While a lot can change, it's unrealistic to assume a birth rate will skyrocket all of a sudden (China's at 1.18 per woman and US is only at 1.6). The painful part, the bad…

Why do you have the maximalist outlook that population must grow. All developed nations are looking at population crunches. All of them, and China and Russia as well. Reducing it to a Chinese problem is reductive. It’s a collective choice, and how is China doing better or worse than its peers?

It's probably good for the planet if we depopulate. But the problem which comes with that is that socioeconomic policy and infrastructure has massively evolved over the course of the industrial and digital revolutions, boosted in the US by WWII, etc. A sudden decline of population makes things that were touted as viable or stable suddenly less viable or stable.

For example, the dependency ratio changes, especially in an aging population. Look at what Japan's going through. A working married male in Japan might be taking care of both their immediately family and both their parents and their significant other's parents. It's a significant economic load and leads to significant issues around mental health and work-life balance.

We can also look toward Japan as a test bed too, as their GDP and standard of living does continue to rise despite an ongoing population decline. This is not an impossible situation to manage, but it does require strong and thoughtful leadership

There's also the lost of trade skills and workers in general needed to maintain current service-based infrastructure.

In the case of China, their population of nearly 1.5bil is projected to be halving within 75 years. This is a massive difference that will require recalibration of policy and infrastructure, whereas other countries might experience a significantly lower ratio of decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_consequences_of_popul...

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but you've said that the conclusion is correct by rejecting the premise of the question. The conclusion could be correct given the premise, and also it could be moot because the premise is impossible, but those are two different claims. Obviously I agree with you that the proposed system is unworkable because the premise is impossible. (This is a "duh" thing that really isn't worth debating, anyone who fails to…

It might be interesting from a philosophical point of view, but when it comes to "do we want this person to have influence over how our government is structured?" it really doesn't matter if the conclusion is wrong because the premise is impossible or because it doesn't follow from the premise. In any case, this one fails both ways. A benevolent dictatorship might be the best form of government in the short term , bu…

Sorry, but again, you're just rejecting the premise of the thought experiment, which is "what if it were possible to always have a benevolent dictator, would that be the best government?".

This is a silly way to engage with a thought experiment. It's like if you responded to the popular "what if the allies lost WW2?" thought experiment with, "well, they didn't". Yes ... but you've missed the point.

I agree that this particular thought experiment about the best form of government is very silly because of how ridiculous the premise is.

But one thing that's slightly interesting about it is that it actually illuminates this difference of opinion I have with these people. Even if I accept the premise that it's possible to always have a benevolent dictator, I still don't agree that it's good!

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have noticed this too. I've only ever read him off and on, and I get the feeling that he must have written something during one of the periods I wasn't reading his still at all that got him "canceled", but I have no idea what it was.

When the American Left split into progressive and liberal camps in the mid 2010s, the rationalist and adjacent communities underwent a huge internal conflict. Scott and a lot of his orbit tend to stay on the liberal side which these days is called and often calls itself "centrist". The aftermath of the split has had pretty huge effects in most Western spaces. A lot of the progressive left is really angry at the centr…

He seems to get more hate than more mainstream people on the more centrist side of that split... Granted, they do all get hate, and your description does resonate. But he still seems to be an outlier.

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#284
post #186

I mentioned this previously, but I frequently think back to Gibson's "Jackpot" -- a cross-lashed, polycausal catastrophe: Lots of bad little things accumulating, building up a certain momentum. I think that even as far back as 2009, an astute observer would have noticed that society is beginning to burn through its seed corn. In some places, things are now getting extremely acute: https://www.neilobrien.co.uk/p/the-c…

> no way out but through Is exactly the philosophical dead end that Nick Land and Curtis and maybe Mark Fisher arrived at. Accelerationism is like the FedEx arrow in that it’s both an unforgettable idea and easy enough that anyone can grasp it, some of the dumbest politicians of our time are ardent believers. It’s fun to think about the possibility that belief in this conclusion was premature two decades ago when CCR…

Accelerationism doesn't work because "accelerating" = "making things worse for the people."

People who imagine that they'll emerge victoriously from the chaos are really quite childish; odds are that the accelerationists will suffer like all the rest -- or worse. They're like children who read medieval history and imagine themselves princes and dukes, rather than dirt farmers laboriously clearing woods and plowing fields.

When I say that there's no way out but through, I mean that things are bad and getting worse, and there's nothing anyone can do about it other than develop the skills to survive by any means necessary. (For some that means survivalism, or moving to Fiji, or just hanging out here and making lots of money.) Do you think we can vote our way out of this mess, with representative democracy? The way things are today? lol, lmao even.

As to the second part of your comment -- I'm reminded of what Jack Womack wrote in the 2000 reissue of Neuromancer: Has "the act of writing it down, in fact, brought it about?"

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the other replies that I've never been able to find any interesting ideas amidst his schlock, but I'm wondering what "many interesting ideas" you see, from your prospective? Just a couple examples would be useful. It's totally possible I've missed them because I haven't ever been able to engage with his writing.

He's pretty thoughtful about how power is actually leveraged and has interesting insights around these ideas, particularly areas of democratic failure that I think are worth thinking about. I think his solutions are more questionable, but his writing is at least worth engaging with. I think people just dismiss him out of hand because he's a political enemy.

I'm worried I'm sealioning, but could you possibly point me to one of these thoughtful pieces? It's a lot to wade through for me to try to figure out what you're talking about without any pointers...

I did read a decent amount of his "mencius moldbug" stuff back in the day, and I just wouldn't describe it the way you do in this comment, so I'm wondering what I'm missing.

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#286

I mentioned this previously, but I frequently think back to Gibson's "Jackpot" -- a cross-lashed, polycausal catastrophe: Lots of bad little things accumulating, building up a certain momentum. I think that even as far back as 2009, an astute observer would have noticed that society is beginning to burn through its seed corn. In some places, things are now getting extremely acute: https://www.neilobrien.co.uk/p/the-c…

Is his opinion really weird when a strong centralized leader (kings, emperors, etc.) was the norm until very very recently? Seems like it's more a return of the political theory of of "enlightened absolutism" that was popular amongst philosophers in the 18th century, or maybe something like Confucius' ideas on government.

Yeah. You should read what Schopenhauer had to say about government, and this was barely 150 years ago, in the mid 19th.

> "In general, the monarchical form of government is that which is natural to man; just as it is natural to bees and ants, to a flight of cranes, a herd of wandering elephants, a pack of wolves seeking prey in common, and many other animals, all of which place one of their number at the head of the business in hand.

> "Every business in which men engage, if it is attended with danger — every campaign, every ship at sea — must also be subject to the authority of one commander; everywhere it is one will that must lead. Even the animal organism is constructed on a monarchical principle: it is the brain alone which guides and governs, and exercises the hegemony. Although heart, lungs, and stomach contribute much more to the continued existence of the whole body, these philistines cannot on that account be allowed to guide and lead. That is a business which belongs solely to the brain; government must proceed from one central point. Even the solar system is monarchical. On the other hand, a republic is as unnatural as it is unfavourable to the higher intellectual life and the arts and sciences. Accordingly we find that everywhere in the world, and at all times, nations, whether civilized or savage, or occupying a position between the two, are always under monarchical government. The rule of many, as Homer said, is not a good thing: let there be one ruler, one king.

In general, I think that those experiments in autocracy that have taken place between 1850-Present rather disprove this notion. (One of the rare things old Schop was wrong about!) The Athenians were right: The affairs of state must be the affairs of every citizen. England's problems won't be solved by a restoration of the Stuarts (I think that the current Stuart heir is a 50 year old banker who is exceedingly uninterested in the job) but they can possibly be solved by dispensing with parliament and enabling qualified citizens to vote directly on laws and regulatory matters. I dare say you won't end up with butter knife bans this way.

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This one is interesting: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49533 . Submitted by pg!

Many tech billionaires are buying his shit.

That was submitted almost two decades ago. It would be interesting to know what pg thinks about this stuff today, but based on his recent writing I'd bet that he is not buying it.

(Also, submitting articles does not imply agreeing with them.)

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#288
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A sci-fi variant of autocracy is not an interesting idea though. Why is a CEO king and a royal board of directors interesting? Its not even novel: his proposal is identical to that laid out by the "technocracy" movement a century ago.

technocracy, aka the progressive movement, aka the acknowledged antecedents of most this thread's political views -- funny how things change

The alliance between tech and progressivism did not really exist until the 80s. Even then it’s always been tenuous and contradictory.

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#289

For what it's worth his writing is very thought provoking and novel. I'd recommend anyone bored of mainstream groupthink take a look at it.

It's been difficult since ~2020 to truly read pieces that are heterodox. Everyone who was painting outside the lines was effectively erased from the polite society of the online squares. Yarvis doesn't even touch many of the existing third rails today.

lol, this is the opposite of the case. It has never ever been easier to consume content (text, audio, video, whatever) outside the mainstream.

Re: Curtis Yarvin's Plot Against America

#290
Seeing him back in the news made me think more about Urbit, his decentralized computing project. For a bit of a discussion of the technical parts of Urbit this is decent: https://wejn.org/2021/02/urbit-good-bad-insane/

I have this feeling that Nock, effectively the bytecode of Urbit, is inspired by Paul Graham's Hundred-Year Language essay: https://paulgraham.com/hundred.html – for instance Nock only defines minimal math operations, as proposed in the essay.

The thing is, Paul's ideas in that essay were quite bad, based on a mathematical aesthetic that is both inefficient and aesthetically a poor fit for computing. That's fine for an essay, you throw some ideas out there and maybe they work or maybe they don't.

Then in Urbit Yarvin actually built the thing. And it's _terrible_. Hilariously bad. Some of the worst architecture you'll ever see. As a minor example they have a hexadecimal integer type... I understand i32, i64, etc., but a hexadecimal type is something you come up with if you don't understand how numbers work. There's literally a hundred other things just as embarrassing as that in the design.

It's fine to take a bad idea and explore it. But he didn't just try out the idea, he got people to invest, to develop the system, emotionally commit to this thing. Seeing community posts is sad, it's naive folks hoping to find a home and seeing some phrases that connect with them, and they don't know enough to see Urbit for the fraud that it is. The obscurantist terminology helps maintain the fraud, since people think there must be something there if only they could understand it... but there isn't, and most of them will never understand it. Every cool demo is just a regular web frontend with a half-assed Urbit backend.

All of which is to say, I think this is Yarvin's schtick: grab onto some ideas, explore them in a way that is so confusing that it hids how moronic the ideas are, while successfully appealing to some latent desire in the audience.

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