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Google to back three new nuclear projects

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Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, it's the NuScale guy again. NuScale got far enough to get approval to build a test reactor at the Idaho Reactor Testing Station, which is in Outer Nowhere for good reasons. But they never got enough funding to build it. The trouble with most of these small modular reactor schemes is that their big pitch is mostly "we don't need a big, strong, containment vessel because ... reasons." There's no inherent problem in…

The vallecitos reactor site is still there to look for anyone in the bay area, at least for the next few years. It's along the 680 corridor just south of Pleasanton and it's been quietly producing medical isotopes since the 70s. They shut down the power factors after they discovered that the entire Pleasanton valley is a gigantic active fault zone called the calaveras fault, and the site itself is in a rift from from…

The long de-fueled reactor vessel was removed just last year.[1] Sent to Texas as a final resting place. The containment dome was still in place then. The next step is to restore the Vallecitos complex to "conditions suitable for productive reuse for other commercial or industrial purposes."[2]

So that's the aftermath of the first commercial small nuclear power reactor.

[1] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Vallecitos-react...

[2] https://www.northstar.com/northstar-closes-ge-hitachi-vallec...

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#282
post #278
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or that by far the easiest way to produce massive amounts hydrogen without emitting carbon into the atmosphere is… wait for it… nuclear power. No, that isn't the easiest way. The easiest — not best, easiest — way to produce massive amounts of hydrogen is whatever your electrical power source is plus some low corrosion rods in a river. If you want the cheapest , well, in most cases PV is the cheapest source of elect…

Since PV needs batteries to be grid-useful (duck curve and all that), it's perfectly reasonable to have both. And no, hydrogen as the storage system doesn't make batteries redundant. Law of conservation of energy. You are talking about using electricity to split water molecules, presumably more electricity to compress and store the collected hydrogen, and then you have the losses associated with converting back to el…

> Since PV needs batteries to be grid-useful (duck curve and all that), it's perfectly reasonable to have both.

Needs storage*, what that storage is depends on other factors.

(* there's a "well technically" for just a grid, in that China makes enough aluminium they could build an actually useful global power grid with negligible resistance, but it doesn't matter in practice)

As it happens, I agree with one crucial part of your final paragraph — hydrogen is hard to store for any length of time (not sure you're right about comparatively low combustion energy but that doesn't matter, low energy density overall is accurate but I don't think matters).

I favour batteries for that because battery cars beat hydrogen cars, and the storage requirements for a power grid are smaller than the requirements for transport, so we can just use the big (and expanding) pile of existing factories to do this.

But hydrogen has other uses than power, and where it's an emergency extra storage system you don't necessarily need a huge efficiency. That said, because one of the main other uses of hydrogen is to make ammonia, I expect emergency backup power to be something which burns ammonia rather than hydrogen gas — not only is it much more stable and much easier to store, it's something you'd be stockpiling anyway because fertiliser isn't applied all year around anyway.

But you could do hydrogen, if you wanted. And some people probably will, because of this sort of thing.

> A square meter of PV provides a theoretical maximum of ~1KW at 100%. Even the experimental perovskite cells only get 45% of that. 450W/m^2. Whereas nuclear is measured in gigawatts per reactor with multiple reactors per plant.

This is completely irrelevant for countries that aren't tiny islands or independent cities.

Even then, and even with lower 20% efficient cells, and also adding in the capacity factor of 10% that's slightly worse than the current global average, Vatican City* has the capacity for 11.1 kW/capita: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=0.5km%5E2+*+1kW%2Fm%5E2...

They are of course not going to tile their architecture in PV — there's a reason I wrote "that aren't … independent cities" — but this is a sense of scale.

(* Number 7 on the Wikipedia "List of countries and dependencies by population density": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen...)

> Then a storm hits. Far less sunlight.

That's what the storage is for

> Then something like hail hits. Damage to panels.

Panels are as strong as you want them to be for the weather you get locally. If you need bullet-proof (FSVO), you can put them behind a bullet-proof screen.

> Then there's the issue of security if someone wanted to cripple the grid.

The grid isn't the source; if you want to cripple a grid, doesn't matter if the source is nuclear, PV, coal, or hamster wheels.

> Nuclear is 24/7, rain or shine, wind or no, impervious to even hurricanes, and already has a robust security and logistics apparatus around it.

Really isn't 24/7, it's 70-80%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Worldwide_Nuclear_Power_C...

And mis-estimating the environmental risks is exactly what went wrong with Fukushima.

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#283
post #56

I suppose like anything there are multiple reasons, but what are the top 3 why California electric rates are so high (compared to the rest of the U.S.)? https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/ Why doesn't the state encourage more capacity to bring costs down? (to encourage electrification/EVs, etc.) Is it because they are phasing out natural gas? Is it to encourage roof top solar? Or trying to reduce…

It's largely forest fires and regulation. Electricity prices are regulated by the state, and at the same time they mandate certain green energy goals. To hit these goals, electric companies have to ignore infrastructure to build renewable energy sources. If the infrastructure gets too old, it risks starting a fire, which could cost the company billions. When the state sees them lose money after a fire, the state lets…

> It's largely forest fires and regulation

It’s PG&E and regulatory capture. Santa Clara County is off PG&E and has normal energy tariffs.

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wind has down sides like ...Birds strikes Many birds die as a result of human activity. In the US, the leading cause of these deaths is cats [1]. Cats cause four times more bird deaths than the next anthropogenic cause of death, flying into windows. Cats cause ~1000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines. [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/15195/wind-turbines-are-not-k...

By sheer numbers, yes, but the kinds of birds killed are different. Larger, slower reproducing birds such as eagles, condors, etc. are more at risk being killed by wind turbines because deaths in those groups have a much larger effect whereas cats kill a much larger number of birds but they tend to be smaller, faster reproducing species and as such their numbers overall aren't as much at risk.

Cats are one of five categories with >100x the rate of wind turbine bird deaths [1].

If your position is that all five of these factors don't impact larger birds, the onus is on you to back that claim up.

[1] https://www.statista.com/chart/15195/wind-turbines-are-not-k...

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#285
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re not adding solar fast enough and are still struggling with storage. This would be a great way to bridge the gap. Not if the data centers consume all this new energy of course which seems to be what’s happening. Maybe after everyone has turned their own portrait into a studio ghibli picture we can go back and use that new, clean energy to solve the climate crisis.

The deployment of solar is growing exponentially, with its total capacity doubling roughly every three years. Wind is growing at a similar rate. Renewables currently already account for 30% of the global electricity production, and we're seeing projections of over 45% in 2030. Assuming the projected 2025-2030 installation speed is realistic and flattens out - bit "if", but not completely unrealistic - that means we'd…

> Nuclear reactors take 15 to 20 years to build, and it'd take an additional year or 5-10 to scale up construction capacity.

I just don't know if that assumption is true.

Looking at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/small-modular-reactor...

> The timeline is to finish construction of the first reactor by the end of 2029, and connect it to the grid in 2030.

Sure, let's add 100% buffer because it's a major project, that's between 8-10 years from now. Not bad.

Are we talking about different kinds of reactors maybe?

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#286
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is you need to ensure it's not bad in any possible configuration from an accident. This is hard to do. Will the energy release at criticality drive the material into an even more critical configuration? Such "autocatalytic" systems were considered for bomb design, but weren't chosen because of the large amounts of plutonium needed. But a fast reactor might have the plutonium of hundreds of atomic bombs. E…

Increasing the heat past a certain threshold reduces the nuclear reactivity. Read up on "passive safety". Teller may have warned about this in 1967, but nuclear technology hasn't been stagnant since 1967. Folks read his stuff and designed systems specifically to fail safe, not run away. Stop fear mongering based upon a 60-year-old supposition. Stop assuming everyone working in the nuclear industry is an idiot that ha…

> Increasing the heat past a certain threshold reduces the nuclear reactivity. Read up on "passive safety".

The safety arguments for fast reactors are typically that a serious scenario will not occur, for example that fuel won't melt, not that if it does occur the results won't be bad. Do you trust that sort of argument? I don't.

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#287
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens in such case were a reactor was to blow. What then? Or are you saying we just deal with it when it occurs? I am not fully detesting nuclear, but I do disagree it a cure to the environment crisis as Solar is plenty and free; as are Wind and Water too. The risks of what if; and that now we live in such a volatile world. How are you going to convince me it's safe? How do I know a drone won't strike it in th…

Nuclear reactors do not surprise explode. The Chinese designs are passively safe: cut off all power and they'll simply sit there. They do not require active cooling. The Gen 4 designs, which they also have, are physics safe: literally drop bombs on them and they still won't fail (bombing a nuclear plant in general is an over stated risk for other reasons too). They're building those now too.

> Nuclear reactors do not surprise explode. The Chinese designs are passively safe: cut off all power and they'll simply sit there. They do not require active cooling.

The same was said of Fukushima. And it was - until a tsunami fried all the backup local power keeping the control systems alive. Turns out the "passive cooling" still requires some valves to be controllable...

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#288
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lets then have a ban on all new natural gas power plants until its down to a single percent. That should not be a problem if that is all that is needed. Using UK as an example, the majority of energy is not renewables. Why should they build new natural gas power plants? Natural gas produce more energy than any other source in the UK. They are not going from 98% renewables, 2% natural gas. ( https://www.carbonbrief.or…

You seem to advocate for some holier than thou perfect path rather than the messy reality that is a transition of the entire energy system to a new cheaper source while upholding our modern society. Let’s look at the area under the curve? You know, we need to decarbonize agriculture, construction, transportation etc. as well. Let look at what the UK has done: - Coal has gone from 150 TWh to zero. - Fossil gas from 17…

If we want to talk messy reality, then the only realistic way to prevent critical point in global warming is to build everything that is non-fossil fuel, that being renewables, nuclear, experimental storage and so on, while at the same time utilizing market forces and use risk-benefit analysis for each government intervention in order to spend government subsidies as cost effective as possible. Everything is needed in order to do as much as possible to reduce emissions.

For EU regulation that requires lower emissions and environmental issues with hydro power, the messy reality is also that the cost of breaking the law and paying the fines are currently cheaper than the economical and political costs of complying with the law. So that is what the Swedish government are doing. The Paris Agreement is just a goal and clearly there is a lot of voters who see it as incompatible with modern society.

It is also the messy reality that many current governments in EU got their votes in the last election because they bailed out the citizens when the power crisis happened and paid the power bills through taxes, causing major harm in the market and further inflated prices. Building out more natural gas power plants will reduce the cost of the next crisis, which is also the stated goal of the new one that got built in Sweden.

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even without I think wind will become too expensive eventually to make it worth while. Especially when solar gets more efficient and cheaper. Wind has down sides like moving parts and requiring giant concrete poors. Birds strikes, noise as well as ground vibration are also issues.

> Wind has down sides like ...Birds strikes Many birds die as a result of human activity. In the US, the leading cause of these deaths is cats [1]. Cats cause four times more bird deaths than the next anthropogenic cause of death, flying into windows. Cats cause ~1000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines. [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/15195/wind-turbines-are-not-k...

> Cats cause ~1000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines.

Edit: this should be Cats cause ~10,000x more bird deaths than collisions with wind turbines.

Re: Google to back three new nuclear projects

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clean energy is scaling far faster than gas. Coal is dead. Nuclear takes 10+ years, and the US industry is so small that it can not scale to meet future needs. Look at what was deployed last year, in GW terms: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586#:~:tex... but note that gas produces at a capacity factor of ~50%, and solar at 25%, so scale solar down by half to better compare gas to solar. Batteries a…

The main problem with renewables is their capacity factor (amount of time they can produce their max capacity). In the US this is ~24%, in Germany I think it's ~12% (can be wrong here). The reason for nuclear here is that it has the highest capacity factor of any form of energy (see EIA.gov).

Those numbers sound about right, but the real problem for solar in Germany is how it inflates the cost, and the intermittency. The capacity factor is just a readout of those problems.

Germany is one of the major economies with the very worst solar resources in the world. So it might actually make a lot of sense for them to build a bit of nuclear instead of stringing HVDC from Spain or Italy or wherever is sunnier. Or not, it's a very tricky projection! These costs are changing quickly, and any nuclear build is a bet not only on the current costs of technologies, but a bet on the future 30-60 years of costs.

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