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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#281

Post by bilbo0s »

margorczynski wrote: post #133

Still, this kind of outsourcing of manufacturing (or even more food production) puts the US in an incredibly uncomfortable position, especially that China is its main geopolitical enemy. What if a war erupts? Suddenly the US cannot produce a lot of essential stuff - I think Covid was a good example of that happening. Of course the question is can this be done and what will be the price if so.

What if a war erupts?

I believe we should scale up manufacturing in the US for different reasons.

But I'm also a realist. If war erupts between China and the US, then anyone in the US or China still alive 4 weeks after the start of hostilities will have more pressing concerns than worrying about where things are manufactured. Again, just the reality.

We shouldn't plan on the basis of end of the world scenarios. Rather we should plan on the assumption that we want to confer maximum benefit on the US in likely non-apocalyptic future timelines.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#282

Post by bluGill »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #10
nathan_compton wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, sure, but perhaps some kind of plan is warranted?

Isn't the point of capitalism to not have a plan and let the market figure it out?

The point of Capitalism is Marx needed a straw man to tear down. The world has never seen what he envisioned.

What you might call capitalists very much plan. They don't believe in central planning where one "guy" makes a plans and everyone else implements them, but they do plan.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#283

Post by digikata »

rickdeckard wrote: post #252
like_any_other wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

The weird part for me is this: While the economy was evolving, Production was offshored from US for cost-reasons, but also in part to focus on higher-skill labor in US, delegating the low-skill mass-production to China. Over time, China also developed mid/high level skills, complemented their low-skill production offering with it and now competes in new industries, new tech, etc. So...to compete with China, the count…

I think the mistake here is the model of low-skill/high-skill labor is not a useful distinction. Manufacturing is high skill period, however there are low-infrastructure and high-infrastructure products and factories. The labor wages themselves are a factor, but an increasingly minor factor in product costs. By bypassing investment in US manufacturing skills and infra, the US sat itself on the sidelines for the ability to build, staff, and supply modern low, medium and high infrastructure factories.

It's not impossible to build back, but it would require long term stable policies to favor it at more levels than just tariffs.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#284

Post by freeone3000 »

pjc50 wrote: post #264
freeone3000 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At an individual level, it’s not more complicated: it’s reimbursed instead of exempted. And if you’re charging it, it’s easier , since you simply always charge instead of maintaining your list of exceptions.

UK VAT certainly has a complicated list of exceptions, especially "non-luxury food" (see the Jaffa Cake case https://www.astonshaw.co.uk/jaffa-cake-tax/ )

But these are per-product, not per-customer. (Businesses, charities, and some customers are exempt from sales tax regardless of what they are buying.)

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#285

Post by pjc50 »

bluGill wrote: post #183
pjc50 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're not alone. There's thousands and thousands of similar operations, all over the US, that will have to shut down, if something doesn't give. I wonder where they were on election day, when they had a choice. The record of business owners voting D is .. not great.

D has not been a good choice for small business either.

The electoral Monty Hall problem offered people a choice of two boxes, and we can all see what's in the one they picked.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#286

Post by toomuchtodo »

digikata wrote: post #283
rickdeckard wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The weird part for me is this: While the economy was evolving, Production was offshored from US for cost-reasons, but also in part to focus on higher-skill labor in US, delegating the low-skill mass-production to China. Over time, China also developed mid/high level skills, complemented their low-skill production offering with it and now competes in new industries, new tech, etc. So...to compete with China, the count…

I think the mistake here is the model of low-skill/high-skill labor is not a useful distinction. Manufacturing is high skill period, however there are low-infrastructure and high-infrastructure products and factories. The labor wages themselves are a factor, but an increasingly minor factor in product costs. By bypassing investment in US manufacturing skills and infra, the US sat itself on the sidelines for the abili…

The solution is to pay everyone a living wage, regardless of job, and disconnect healthcare from employment. Lots of inertia against those ideas though. So, instead, "good manufacturing jobs" is the parroted point. Any job is a good job if you can live off of it.

(tariffs do nothing to address labor shortages in healthcare, teaching, and other domestic service based sectors, for example)

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#287

Post by mindtricks »

acyou wrote: post #265

This article seems to be full of propaganda and downright lies. For instance, there are plenty of tool and die makers left in the USA, plenty of injection molding machines. I have personally seen them and met the tool and die makers as well as the machines making the molds. It's difficult to address the giant article full of misrepresentations point by point. It's tough to see it up at the top of HN. Wish that I coul…

If you feel there are misrepresentations, then just pick one point and discuss that. I've worked in manufacturing-dependent companies and industries, and lived in China for years. His observations don't feel entirely off-base to me and fit much of what I've observed. So if there is something wrong here, help us clarify one part of it.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#288

Post by kamaal »

jghn wrote: post #117

The other day I saw the results of a poll [1] where 80% of Americans thought the *country* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. However, only 20% of Americans thought that *they* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. It was surprisingly bipartisan. In other words, people like the idea of this, but no one actually wants this. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/845917ed-41a5-449f-…

Would interesting to know what percentage themselves or their own children wanted to work at a factory. Can tell with a huge degree of confidence for all practical purposes thats 0.

Its always easy to expect other people to make sacrifices working these jobs, while imagining you and your kids working office desk jobs.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#289

Post by taylodl »

like_any_other wrote: post #163
pjc50 wrote: post #35

> China generates over twice as much electricity per person today as the United States. Why? This appears to be completely wrong? All the stats I can find say that the US has about 4x the per capita electricity generation of China. Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. > If you’re building a new factory in the United States, your investment will a…

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

Thing is, manufacturing in America is up. The 2008 crises dealt a blow, but manufacturing has been building-back. I don't think people realize how many high-value items are made in the United States. Let the East Asians make our mass-consumer junk while we focus on the high-value stuff.

Just goes to show the administration isn't working with facts and doing the hard-nosed analysis required to drive effective policy.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=manufacturing%3Bou...

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#290

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

bluGill wrote: post #282
throwawaymaths wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the point of capitalism to not have a plan and let the market figure it out?

The point of Capitalism is Marx needed a straw man to tear down. The world has never seen what he envisioned. What you might call capitalists very much plan. They don't believe in central planning where one "guy" makes a plans and everyone else implements them, but they do plan.

> they do plan.

I've just sat through a long meeting with lots of Jiras and Q2 objectives. Trust me, there's planning. Lots of planning.

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