Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#281

Post by Terr_ » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:55 AM UTC

wtcactus wrote: post #56

jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

This all tariff imbecility created solely by Trump it’s atrocious, still, if EU response is to hit the main players in Nasdaq - where there are a lot of chip producers necessary for the ongoing AI revolution - we are just shooting ourselves majorly in the foot. Surely there are much better companies for the EU to apply directed tariffs. EU absolutely has their weaknesses, but giving blunt responses (like China just d…

> created solely by Trump

Nitpick: No, the entire Republican party is at fault here.

They willfully ignored every warning, and attacked the people giving the warnings. They promoted him, protected him in two impeachments, eventually re-elected him, and actively confirmed his cabinet of sycophants instead of requiring some adults in the Oval Office. Then they took specific steps to block anyone from challenging his "national emergency" against our neighbors, by declaring that the rest of the year simply "doesn't count" for the 15 day timer in the original legislation. [0]

Some Republican legislators may have had hard-choices for securing their own re-elections, but they still chose this route.

[0] https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5189410-house-gop-democra...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#282

Post by iknowSFR » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:55 AM UTC

rglover wrote: post #157

csense wrote: post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

AFAIK this is one of the first times that a significant downward move in the stock market wasn't also seen in the price of Bitcoin. Usually they're correlated.

What’s the sample size of significant downward moves in the market during the existence of BTC?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#283

Post by biophysboy » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:55 AM UTC

alaxhn wrote: post #198

beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

To lay out my own biases - I voted for Trump but do not consider myself a strong supporter (I saw it much more of a vote for who you dislike less sort of situation) - I don't understand and am not supportive of the approach on Tariffs - I am an active participate in what most here would consider right wing politics although I don't find myself aligning on every topic (e.g. I am supportive of the abortion laws in Cali…

To improve rust belt manufacturing, you would target competitors of industries in that area, not the whole global economy.

We imposed a 32% tariff on Taiwan. Simultaneously, we are making it more expensive to manufacture here in the states. We have 1/4 China's pop - why would we try to compete on raw output by ourselves, instead of strengthening ties w/ the world?

For many countries, there is nothing to negotiate since we already have free trade agreements with them. We may import a lot of goods, but we export a lot of services, like many developed nations do.

With regard to raising revenue, think of the tradeoffs. If demand is elastic (given our trade deficit, it has to be!), this will be a tax on many, many American businesses and consumers. Its just moving the taxes from income tax to a consumption tax. That's a worse deal for poorer/middle-class Americans.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#284

Post by Centigonal » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:55 AM UTC

hattmall wrote: post #203

Centigonal wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Yes, that's exactly what a liability is! US currency is an IOU. The more of it out in the world the less value there is in America's domestic assets.

I meant "liability" in the sense of "is the US's status as the global reserve currency, on balance, a bad thing for the US?" not in the sense of "Is a US dollar abroad an asset or a liability on America's balance sheet?" Probably could have used a better word.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#285

Post by MegaButts » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:56 AM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #245

owebmaster wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back The pump'n'dump scheme against Ukraine will forever change how small countries see the US support for democracy, even if it changes back to the previous status-quo.

In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics. They see Orbans, they see Le Pens, they see Trump, and they know what is behind it. I am quite sure that Ukraine did not expect anything else from the Trump faction of the Republican party. His victory was not unlikely and he is a simple creature. If different factions win, they will be eager to work with America again, with less trus…

> In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics.

Is that why Ukraine agreed to the Budapest Memorandum?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#286

Post by zip1234 » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:57 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #196

Majromax wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that a quotation is not necessarily an endorsement, but this is a fantastically short-sighted idea. > it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets How dare countries want pictures of dead Presidents so badly that... they're willing to send real goods to the United States for its consumption, with no expectation of reciprocation. > and the defense umbrella…

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

US manufacturing is at an all time high in terms of output. Less people are needed in that sector because it's an area where automation is highest. I agree that there is a national security reason to have tariffs to protect some manufacturing, but that should be a precision targeted tariff if anything.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#287

Post by ceejayoz » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:58 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #272

ceejayoz wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can just repeal the law [0] being used Only with a veto-proof majority in both chambers.

Maybe, but vetoes are politically very expensive. Even if he threatens to veto, Congress should still do it. Not doing obvious things because they might run into opposition/problems is a recipe for more and worse of the same.

> Maybe, but vetoes are politically very expensive.

As are felony convictions, top secret docs in a bathroom at your house, sexual assault settlements, and the hundred other career-ending scandals the guy has survived without a scratch so far.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#288

Post by sebmellen » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

zip1234 wrote: post #280

sebmellen wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only “in a sense,” but also directly — many of the parent or grandparent LPs to US venture firms are foreign wealth funds, and US tech companies are (by way of our capital markets) held as an investment by many foreign nations (e.g. Norway’s sovereign wealth funds). So we enrich foreign nations through our technology companies and capital markets. This is to the detriment of our domestic laborers, but it’s a grea…

I'm not even sure that it is to the detriment of our domestic laborers. It certainly makes domestic manufacturing less competitive, especially the lowest skill/barrier to entry manufacturing. However, the US manufactures a LOT still, there are loads of reasonably well paying jobs for lower skill worker. I will say that housing and healthcare costs are high in the US but those are not things that are imported.

It also depends on what you think people want. Do they want a vast array of cheap consumer goods and entertainment, or do they want more affordable basics, like housing, cars, and healthcare?

If you go by PPP alone, the US is already in second place [0].

PPP is a horrible metric, but I’m not sure GDP per capita is any better.

[0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#289

Post by lovecg » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

Vegenoid wrote: post #195

paxys wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next president is going to be Trump. If people don't think that's at least a serious possibity they are extremely deluded about the situation the country is in right now.

We have repeatedly seen Trump say something that sounds ridiculous, and his supporters say "that won't actually happen, and if it does I won't support it", and then he does it and his supporters support it. He has recently said he may try for another term as president, and confirmed "No, no I'm not joking". If you don't take his threats seriously by now, and the willingness of the GOP to get behind whatever he wants,…

Wouldn’t he have to get on the ballot in all the swing states at least? What if some states refuse to let him run? I can’t see California registering him for example, but that wouldn’t really matter of course.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#290

Post by tpetry » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

jarym wrote: post #30

beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

My best understanding of the administration's psyche is that they're determined to have more manufacturing happen in the US - regardless of the economic impact. It still doesn't make sense though - there's a reason sneaker makers like to have kids in places like Vietnam make shoes for a few cents per hour. It's because no one in the US would work gruelling hours for such little pay! POTUS wants to 'level the field' b…

The problem is more that the companies want to keep their insane profit margin. They could produce in the US, pay workers more and sell for the same price.

But thats less revenue for the company. Less shareholder value. Less bonus for CEOs.

The problem is the hyper capitalism which we have for the past 50 years that every company needs more and more profits.