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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#281

Post by danmaz74 »

vitorgrs wrote: post #118
ggm wrote: post #87

I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…

The weighted average of the new U.S. tariffs will be 29% it seems. Maybe they know the consequences, but to give you a idea... it was 1.5% before. The new ones will be equivalent to Brazilian tariffs in 1989 before opening the economy (31%, data from World Bank). Now, Brazilian tariffs, which have one if the most closed economies, by weighted average, is 7%. China, have 2.2%. The United States will be an autarchy, si…

By the way, what I find most baffling in these discussions is that these calculations are always based only on physical goods, ignoring services, where the US usually has a positive balance - eg, with the EU, the US has a 109B positive balance. In our economies, which are more and more service based, why are services ignored?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#282

Post by groestl »

ggm wrote: post #87

I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…

> What's the plan for that?

The answer to this is pretty simple, although American Exceptionalism makes it hard to see for many Americans. For every other country, most could see pretty clearly that they'll not plan on holding free elections going forward.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#283

Post by coderenegade »

seydor wrote: post #169
iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

Suppose you even find those workers. How are american products going to compete with cheaper chinese / european ones. People over there are used to much lower wages / purchasing power. You can look at Tesla vs BYD prices as an example

More likely the goal is for foreign companies to set up factories in the US for the domestic market. The US market is too big for most industries to ignore, and as they move manufacturing there, they skill up the US population.

Industries don't exist in isolation, and you need to be able to make simpler things in order to cultivate the know-how to make complex things. If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. This is as much a strategic initiative as it is an economic one.

And BYD should be a wake up call that the US cannot compete in high value goods anymore.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#284

Post by danso »

TrackerFF wrote: post #62

From what I understand, de minimis exemption has also been removed. That is a huge, huge deal. It effectively means that all goods imported from China will be slapped with a 30% import tax, as soon as said goods arrive the US border / customs. Usually what happens then, is that the courier will pay that tax, and then bill the recipient later on - as well as charge some fee/fees for the work done. This is why in some…

FWIW eliminating the de minimis exemption had already been proposed by President Biden late last year:

https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statement...

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#285

Post by h4ck_th3_pl4n3t »

ggm wrote: post #87

I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…

Always keep in mind that Blackrock manages the retirement/social insurance funds of a lot of countries. If the USD crashes, they will, too.

The aftermath will probably be complete isolation of the US, because no country will want to trade with them. And the administration is fine with that, because they're not interested in keeping the status quo of democracy alive.

More influence for them, less influence from outside. That's how oligarchs think and act.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#288

Post by risyachka »

ggm wrote: post #87

I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…

Even the best economists can't predict economy results from "small" actions.

With global ones like this - they are absolutely oblivious what will happen.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#289

Post by lysecret »

mikewarot wrote: post #227

As a preview of our future, it's now a good time to review the decline of standard of living that occurred when Great Britain lost the privilege of having the World's reserve currency, the Pound Sterling. My estimate is we're in for a 75% haircut to our personal standard of living as the US Dollar loses it's place, and we actually have to pay for everything we want in hard currency or real goods. Trump killed the gol…

Yep what many people overlook is that this deficient just means the rest of the world is financing the US overconsumption. And the only reason they are happy to do it is because they are happy to hold USD and are happy to invest in the US economy.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#290

Post by spacechild1 »

mcoliver wrote: post #92

Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh... https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...

There is a dedicated article in an Austrian newspaper about that: https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000264129/das-verrueckt... They essentially call it batshit crazy.
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