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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

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Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#281

Post by Nursie »

throwawaythekey wrote: post #250
ikiris wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only a debate if you reject the very principals of science. I realize we're getting there for a lot of people, but merely disbelieving in science is not a refutal of it. This ignores so called Austrian economists however, who are just flat out lying to either themselves or everyone else depending on the person.

Is there a fundamental repudiation to Austrian economics? All I know about them is that they don't like funny money, which to me as a systems thinker is perfectly reasonable. At worst you would expect it to be harmful, at best to obscure what is really going on.

Where mainstream economics is imprecise and frequently inaccurate, and credited with predictive powers it simply doesn't possess, it is at least an attempt to study economic reality.

'Austrian' economics is more akin to a religion, with associated dogma and moral tenets.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#282

Post by Etheryte »

toast0 wrote: post #24
EmpireoftheSun wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think Brin Drain is a win-win outcome in a globalized world. USA benefits but at expense of mostly poor nations sending their elite talent.

Depending on the origin country, there's a non-insignificant amount of people coming to the US, making a lot of money, then going back to their country of origin and building businesses or charities back home. Often with some amount of remitances in the meantime. I think that can be a win-win, but the ratios probably matter.

While this may happen to some degree, it's almost certainly overshadowed by the fact that this also quickly creates a vast wealth gap, leading to problems with housing, gentrification, etc. In other words, the people actually living there will very quickly be priced out of many markets. We see this effect to some extent in nearly every country in the world, just mixed in with all other economic activity, so it isn't as plainly obvious.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#284

Post by throwawaymaths »

ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things.

hows that going? economists have been giving advice to policymakers for decades, and we have a widening gap between the haves and the have nots, society increasingly in debt, etc.

Maybe economists have it wrong.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#285

Post by roenxi »

Nimitz14 wrote: post #161
roenxi wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago. I don't think any sane economists have ever "rejected" the gold standard, it is known to work. Pretty much any empire ever founded was built on a gold standard. The US jumped away from it because they were going to go bankrupt and picked a system that put the pain off until a later date. Now, 50 years later, they appear to have lost the title of…

If you had spent the time writing this and other comments googling/chatgpting you could have learned why returning to the gold standard is a joke.

Typically when someone says "I think A" the onus is not on them to do the legwork trying to prove A false. Although I agree that ChatGPT is generally better at putting together an argument than the HN average.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#286

Post by Aeolun »

nextos wrote: post #12
ViktorRay wrote: post #4

Steve Jobs told Obama something similar once. The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities. Basically give those workers a visa along with their diploma. Obama thought the idea was intriguing and mentioned it multiple times to his advisors. It never went anywhere though. Brain draining the rest of the world is one of the main reasons for America’s succes…

> The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities Some EU countries offer scholarships to attract good foreign undergrads and grad students to their universities. The whole point is that they stay afterwards, and they try really hard to keep them. It's been proven to be quite economically profitable, see e.g. [1]. I've never understood what's the point of a…

Japan is very good at this. They’re essentially like “You got someone willing to pay you? Cool, come on in.” Then after 5 years you can (if you want) naturalize, and after 10 you can get permanent residency.

No random nation based limits like the US somehow has.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#287

Post by aredox »

norswap wrote: post #256
aredox wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

geohot is a deeply unserious person. (See also: his attempt at self-driving, and his "internship" at x/twitter under Elon)

His "attempt" at self-driving is better than most of the industry, at a fraction of the cost. The man does and tries things. Man in the arena.

>His "attempt" at self-driving is better than most of the industry, at a fraction of the cost.

Because it was an unserious hack, like him.

https://venturebeat.com/ai/comma-ai-cancels-self-driving-car...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#288

Post by systemf_omega »

tokioyoyo wrote: post #252
systemf_omega wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money buys you freedom to live you life anywhere you want, and do whatever you want. Do you think grinding away for low pay until your mid 60s, only to end up facing a collapsing pension system in your final years with little savings is the best way to spend your time on earth? Also how can a person that hasn't experienced the economic freedom the US provides to top talent accurately judge if their country of choice…

My friend, not everyone makes 150K/year. Like yes, we can do it, and choose our freedom because of the industry we live in. But you might be very disconnected from an average person’s life. Average or poorer person in the US does not get to choose where they retire either. I promise, 70 year retired old ojiisans over here in Tokyo don’t think their life would’ve been better if they lived in Oklahoma. You guys think e…

> Average or poorer person in the US does not get to choose where they retire either.

I've already addressed this in another thread. We're talking about brain drain. That means we are talking about highly skilled professionals for in-demand fields that can easily get this level of pay.

A skilled senior SWE can very realistically demand $300k+ comp in US tech companies. In the startup space $150k + equity has become table stakes, and their hiring bar is often significantly lower. These are not anomalies, tech companies employ hundreds of thousands of engineers.

> You guys think everyone wants the same as you do, but it really isn’t like that.

Ok, so tell me, what are things people want? Because people in the aforementioned circles can retire in their 30s, and spend the rest of their lives traveling the world, taking care of their family, and pursing their passions without worries. Is that somehow controversial?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#289

Post by baq »

snowwrestler wrote: post #147

It's a surprisingly retro economic take from a tech guy. Kind of crazy to see famous tech personalities pivoting from "software is eating the world" to "it's fake unless it is made out of metal."

Every problem has a solution which is simple, elegant and wrong. I’ve made such confident mistakes when I was younger; nowadays when I have an idea for a fix in a complex system that is simple and elegant, I take a step back and try to look why it’s wrong. Usually doesn’t take much looking.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#290

Post by grumpy-de-sre »

raxxorraxor wrote: post #230
ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

I don't think economists overall, even when generalizing, have a good track record. Too often hidden interests modify the core of their messages. Krugman for example has a poor record on predictions, not sure about the other ones. That said, this isn't all "gold" either in my opinion. Money is still tied to productivity. At least it works as long as people believe debts can be repaid. If they wouldn't, there would be…

The interesting question would be how to tie the currency to real productivity in a way that makes financial engineering, and fraud unattractive.

Not a crypto shill but proof of work isn't so terrible, particularly something ASIC resistant. Energy isn't such a bad thing to peg your currency to (lot more flexible than gold). But nonetheless you still end up with a lot of weird distortions.

The legacy of ZIRP, and the effects of decoupling the financial and real world, are going to be felt for years to come.

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