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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#281

Post by aurareturn »

simondotau wrote: post #272
koolba wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They must have a massive influence. I think its gross revenue is something like 10% of the GDP of the whole country.

Even that understates things. TSMC is Taiwan’s singular Trump card in geopolitical negotiations. Now that righteousness and moral high grounds don’t matter any more, it’s the only thing keeping Taiwan safe.

  Now that righteousness and moral high grounds don’t matter any more, it’s the only thing keeping Taiwan safe.
It's not the only thing because if China controls Taiwan, they'll eventually control SK, Japan, and PH as well.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#282

Post by throwaway290 »

re-thc wrote: post #203
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

> If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

> replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

explain?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#283

Post by aurareturn »

nfw2 wrote: post #92
_t9ow wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they can more credibly threaten to destroy the Taiwanese fabs if China invades China's interest in Taiwan is ideological. It is not at all determined by whether the Taiwanese destroy their own fabs in the event of an invasion.

Even if the desire to absorb Taiwan is ideological, they would certainly also understand the severe practical implications of losing access to their chip production.

They already lost access.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#284

Post by alienthrowaway »

dragonwriter wrote: post #224
icegreentea2 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "clawing back" isn't simply a withdraw of resources back to America, it also requires structural fixes within America (mostly looking at the wealth inequality), as well as properly address the nativist embers that are currently lit. An America that successfully claws back, but does not address the internal weaknesses in time will have its own version of China's and Russia's demographic challenges.

> The "clawing back" isn't simply a withdraw of resources back to America, it also requires structural fixes within America (mostly looking at the wealth inequality), as well as properly address the nativist embers that are currently lit. The political faction pushing this kind of thing (and viewing it as a clawback) is also the one fanning the nativist (and racist!) embers as political cover for while advancing poli…

> ...in time will have its own version of China's and Russia's demographic challenges

They have a plan for that: birth control will be made illegal or access highly curtailed, starting with the "abortive" ones as the foot-in-the-door.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#285

Post by puppymaster »

Analemma_ wrote: post #7

How's that huge Foxconn investment in Wisconsin going? I can't believe people are falling for the exact same scam again.

Having been in Taiwan for 10 years, comments like these totally ignore the differences in personal traits and 誠信 between Terry Guo and Morris Chang. TSMC and the entire upper management is build differently than Foxconn. After all, Arizona factory is about to be up and running no?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#286

Post by justahuman74 »

tyre wrote: post #136
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

A vast nuclear weapons program is cheaper than $100b

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#287

Post by alienthrowaway »

Detrytus wrote: post #129
world2vec wrote: post #52

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

US has many military bases across EU, after such hostile act they might as well take control over the Netherlands

How big do you think those bases are, exactly? They are reliant in the host country.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#288

Post by deagle50 »

justahuman74 wrote: post #286
tyre wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…

A vast nuclear weapons program is cheaper than $100b

It would not go unnoticed and would pretty much guarantee invasion.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#289

Post by justahuman74 »

dev1ycan wrote: post #260
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

They've said so as much that they plan to give it a similar to hong kong style government if they wilingly join, and from the latest trump Q&A it almost confirms that once America has TSMC fabs running in their country they won't care to protect Taiwan. Being a realist Taiwan joining China willingly under those conditions before they basically technology transfer to America and make themselves worth much less (In Chi…

TSMC is 100% ruined if they join China, it is the end of it process competitiveness.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#290

Post by puppymaster »

aurareturn wrote: post #127

An ok deal for TSMC, terrible deal for Taiwan. Why? TSMC was likely threatened by Trump to invest in America. TSMC likely didn't want to do this. However, because they will have more fabs in the US, they'll likely avoid the tariffs as part of the deal. Further more, TSMC will still make chips in case of of a China take over. The risk here is that the US will simply confiscate TSMC's fabs if China uses military action…

It's not just the cutting edge node. Arizona chips will still be shipped back to Taiwan because TSMC only do Fan-out PoP packaging there. This will unlikely change for the next 5 factories. This is a good win win for everyone. Trump gets to parrot jobs back in america slogan, TSMC gets some extra money to scale out production to 64% of their revenue customer (US based) and Taiwan gets to keep what is really, really important.
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