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Any clues to how they plan to invest $500 billion dollars? What infrastructure are they planning that will cost that much?
Reasonably speaking, there is no way they can know how they plan to invest $500 billion dollars. The current generation of large language models basically use all human text thats ever been created for the parameters... not really sure where you go after than using the same tech.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Microsoft has lots of revenue streams tied to that capex outlay. Does OpenAI have similar revenue numbers to Microsoft?
OpenAI has a very healthy revenue stream in the form of other companies throwing money at them. But to answer your question, no they aren’t even profitable by themselves.
Depends on your definition of profitability, They are not recovering R&D and training costs, but they (and MS) are recouping inference costs from user subscription and API revenue with a healthy operating margin.
Today they will not survive if they stop investing in R&D, but they do have to slow down at some point. It looks like they and other big players are betting on a moat they hope to build with the $100B DCs and ASICs that open weight models or others cannot compete with.
This will be either because training will be too expensive (few entities have the budget for $10B+ on training and no need to monetize it) and even those kind of models where available may be impossible to run inference with off the shelf GPUs, i.e. these models can only run on ASICS, which only large players will have access to[1].
In this scenario corporations will have to pay them the money for the best models, when that happens OpenAI can slow down R&D and become profitable with capex considered.
[1] This is natural progression in a compute bottle-necked sector, we saw a similar evolution from CPU to ASICS and GPU in the crypto few years ago. It is slightly distorted comparison due to the switch from PoW to PoS and intentional design for GPU for some coins, even then you needed DC scale operations in a cheap power location to be profitable.
What will be powering all these data centers? The thought of exponentially increasing our fossil fuel consumption scares the hell out of me.
Wouldn't 500bn into quantum computing show better returns for civilization? Assuming it's about progress and ... not money.
March 2024: The Stargate project is announced - https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell... June 2024: Oracle joins in - https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-to-use-oci... January 2025: Softbank provides additional funding, and they for some reason give credit to Trump?
Because tech CEOs have decided to go all-in on fascism as they see it's a way to make money. Bow to Trump, get on his good side, reap the benefits of government corruption.
It's why TikTok thanked Trump in their boot-licking message of "thanks, trump" after he was the one who started the TikTok ban.
A harder question is: why wouldn't billionaires like Trump and his oligarchic kleptocracy?
Any clues to how they plan to invest $500 billion dollars? What infrastructure are they planning that will cost that much?
Reasonably speaking, there is no way they can know how they plan to invest $500 billion dollars. The current generation of large language models basically use all human text thats ever been created for the parameters... not really sure where you go after than using the same tech.
Wouldn't 500bn into quantum computing show better returns for civilization? Assuming it's about progress and ... not money.
We don't really know anything useful that can be done with quantum computers for civilization. They can break some cryptography... other than that... what are they good for? There's some highly speculative ideas about using them for chemistry/biology research, but no guaranteed return on investment at all. As far as I know... that's it.
The fallout is going to be insane when the AI bubble pops.