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Who killed the rave?

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Re: Who killed the rave?

#282
post #222
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supply can't possibly keep up when real estate is used as an investment. As an analogy to the dead internet hypothesis I present the dead real estate market hypothesis. Increasingly it's just investors buying and selling properties from each other. And it's not just a hypothesis. China built enough homes to house its population twice over, yet it's not reflected in the prices. All because everyone and their grandma i…

> China built enough homes to house its population twice over, yet it's not reflected in the prices. All because everyone and their grandma is investing in real estate. Yes, but this is reflected in China's vacancy rate: 22% by some estimates. In the US, home vacancy rates are sub-1%. Not saying people aren't treating homes as investments, but it seems clear we also have a supply issue. "Real Estate is Investment" sh…

>"Real Estate is Investment" should naturally lead to overproduction as investment-only properties get built to satisfy that demand—as we see in China

China had massive home overproduction because the goddamned totalitarian government told builders to build or else. It was not market forces.

How do you suppose we do that in the US? Especially with this administration?

In the US, builders don't build 100 starter homes because it is more profitable and easier to build a couple McMansions and sell them for crazy prices. THOSE are the homes that get built as "investments". No builder will benefit from producing a large supply of homes, so they don't. The market will not self correct.

Re: Who killed the rave?

#283
It's very difficult to operate a moderate-sized event secretly. Raves used to be promoted locally (at record & clothing shops) , and then shared among friends. The venue was secret right up to the event, because you first had to drive to a number of secret waypoints that were revealed by phone. The final location was often hidden in the wilderness or at a condemned (or squatted) building.

Accidental and deliberate surveillance is so common and cheap that this is no longer viable.

Re: Who killed the rave?

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

costs aren't equal. The price of an acre plot in downtown SF is not the same as the suburbs. My point is that if you remove jobs and pay from the current incentives, city demand would decrease dramatically.

If you removed the legal protectionism imposed by zoning codes, which require the reservation of large tracts of land for single-family housing regardless of actual market forces, suburb demand would decrease even more dramatically.

Im not sure I follow your point. What does demand have to do with zoning?

I agree that if you remove zoning, many areas of single family homes would be built up if they are in and around urban cores. That isnt new demand, but existing demand, not able to be expressed by current law.

However, my point is that if your [random small town] job paid the same as NY or SF, you would see a flux out of those cities to the small towns.

WE are describing two different situations.

Re: Who killed the rave?

#286

I find it really hard to believe this and am questioning the data. I raved back in the early 2000s and I still rave now and the popularity is absolutely booming in a way I've never seen before and in more parts of the world. 15 years ago there was zero electronic music events in Dubai, now there are huge electronic music festivals there and it's clear a ton of people at those events are taking "something" that isn't…

The UAE is a microcosm and not representative of general trends imo.

I believe that, 15 years ago was peak deadmau5, skrillex, dubstep explosion, EDC expanding everywhere. No way globally its more popular now then it was in the 2010s

Re: Who killed the rave?

#287
What's missing is GenZ isn't into it. The kids are the ones that go out all the time and they drive a lot of the revenue that big clubs need to stay alive. I'm not really sure what GenZ is into instead -- would've been cool if this article had tried asking them.

Re: Who killed the rave?

#288

Probably a bunch of factors... Tier 1 city RE prices have made live entertainment venues harder to run profitably. GenZ studies have found a lower participation in "risky behavior" which late night clubbing may or not be considered. Mobile internet & smartphones seem to be killing all forms of live in person interaction. And finally electronic music of various forms used to be a niche, and now it's mainstream. In the…

the best raves these days have great anti-phone measures: - stickers on cameras - you can’t even take your phone out of your pocket on the dance floor

Some places I visited in Berlin even required checking in your phone at coat check. These were the best-organized coat checks I’d seen in my life.

Re: Who killed the rave?

#289

What's missing is GenZ isn't into it. The kids are the ones that go out all the time and they drive a lot of the revenue that big clubs need to stay alive. I'm not really sure what GenZ is into instead -- would've been cool if this article had tried asking them.

I think we could say that covid killed a lot of these things. GenZ just happened to be coming of age during the pandemic years and thus prefers to stay home as they see that as normative.

Re: Who killed the rave?

#290

Probably a bunch of factors... Tier 1 city RE prices have made live entertainment venues harder to run profitably. GenZ studies have found a lower participation in "risky behavior" which late night clubbing may or not be considered. Mobile internet & smartphones seem to be killing all forms of live in person interaction. And finally electronic music of various forms used to be a niche, and now it's mainstream. In the…

I think we could say that covid killed a lot of these activities (some were already in decline, but covid delivered the final blow). GenZ just happened to be coming of age during the pandemic years and thus prefers to stay home as they see that as normative. Millennials are past the rave stage as they're getting into their 40s.
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