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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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281–290 of 497 posts

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#281
post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

More than the autonomous cars, but it might not be more then you're paying now - unless the autonomous cars are particularly expensive to crash into.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#282

I would be interested in comparison to human drivers excluding humans driving under influence. We know that humans under influence are really bad drivers. So bad, that DUI is illegal. Stats commonly include accidents caused these drivers.

Is this not the "no-true-scotsman" fallacy? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman )

No, it is not. I'm not saying stats that include DUI accidents are not good or useful, just that additional analysis (together with these results) would be interesting as it would give us better insight.

For example, let's say an analysis tells us that a disease X has 1.0% mortality rate. Would you consider additional analyses that tell us that 90% of these are kids under 10 and that mortality rate for kids under 10 is 10% an useful insight or not?

EDIT: Maybe a better example would be a results from real studies that show a slight U curve for relationship between alcohol intake and total mortality. People not drinking any alcohol have higher total mortality than people who drink in moderation. Without additional data it seems that a moderate amount of alcohol is good for your health. Data from a newer study however shows that, if you exclude people who don't drink because of health issues, there is no U curve anymore and people not drinking any alcohol don't have higher total mortality than people who drink in moderation.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#283
post #254

I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…

I feel like I saw a self driving concept in the last few years where the headlights had eyes that could appear to be looking at you to signal that it was aware of your presence?

I'm pretty sure I would hate that. I want information and feedback, not misrepresentation or infantalization.

I guess it depends how they did it exactly. If it looked like an animal or cartoon character etc, that's what I would hate.

If it wasn't pretending to be an aware and caring being, that would be ok.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If self-driving cars are widely available They won't be "widely available" because of the higher prices, just look at the EV market right now. You won't get a self-driving $2,000 clunker, and when you drive a $2,000 clunker you don't do it because you "like it", but because that's all that you can afford.

Ah yes. Technological progress will never happen.

Did it happen for EVs in the here and now? Where can I find a SH EV clunker for $2,000? I'm talking about an EV with performances similar to those of a gasoline-based $2,000 clunker.

Otherwise, believing in "technological progress" as a potential solution is just just that, an irrational belief.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#286
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are faking their way through using a Lidar-heavy approach. When it works it's great, but when it fails it's dog level pathetic.

Do you think the future is behind depth analysis from 2D pictures rather than in lidar scanning? I know lidars are quite pricey, but I haven’t heard of regular camera breakthroughs in the domain.

If you can't do reliable depth analysis from multi-angled pictures then you are not seeing the real world. That's somewhat of a problem for a task that is 100% visual and designed for human drivers.

Waymo's safety data, on carefully curated paths, with human assistance and in the most car-centric cities in the world, is worthless. When these things hit the real world, with black ice, open manhole covers potholes etc. etc. don't expect lidar to save you from disaster. Maybe the average safety case can be made, but that won't be acceptable if they regularly kill people by confusing cows with flying plastic bags.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#287
post #198

Still worse than public transport, wastes more resources and endangers cyclists and pedestrians. I have yet to see anything that deserves to be called progress in self-driving. Yet another scam to sell more wasteful, inefficient vehicles.

Public transport is not the answer to everything man and saying this again and again is cringe. -A man in his 20s who doesn't need a car and only uses public transport

You’re right that it’s not the answer to everything, but today car-only infrastructure is considered to be the answer to everything throughout America, so much so that we’ve reached the point where public transit is the only answer to how to move people more efficiently right now because it’s quite simply where all of our transit funding should be going.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#288
post #105
post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

I was just in CA for a few weeks and drove in SF quite a bit. There are Waymo cars everywhere and from the perspective of a driver I was more than a little cautious driving behind or next to one of them. I would rate their driving as quite good, but their signaling of intent was terrible. More than once did I see them use turn signals, only to never actually turn. Turn the signals on, then off again, then on again, e…

I think that as a pedestrian it would be hard for me to get used to. I like to look at the eyes of the driver to make sure they can see me.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#289
post #251
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a cyclist I avoid eye contact like the plague: it's only a small minority of drivers, but that small minority is dangerous enough to outweigh all benefits eye contact might have with others. Some drivers will inevitably read eye contact as "the cyclist has seen me and understood that my big and dangerous car will crush them without taking harm so they will yield no matter what traffic rules might say, so I will go…

Not just as a cyclist. As a pedestrian in one of those huge Asian metropolises with absolutely bonkers traffic, you should never ever make eye contact either. It’s the only way drivers will stop for you.

Really? I've seen a number of drivers in Shanghai stop for me while I'm just standing in the middle of the road, waiting for a clear spot in the traffic.

Actually, I got a fairly strong feeling that Shanghai traffic has gotten noticeably less crazy over time, but I can't rule out that I was just observing the local traffic of different regions of Shanghai at different times.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#290

I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…

I ride my bike several times a day, and I have very mixed views about Waymo, etc. I care immensely about traffic safety (so much I moved to the Netherlands). If you took the world as it is now and left everything the same except that every car was a waymo and there were no human-driven cars left, I would be ecstatic. Humans are horrible drivers and some of them are downright murderous. If every car were a waymo I cou…

It seems contradictory to care immensely about traffic safety but lament the idea of wearing a vest to cross the street. It seems like something that logically we should probably already be doing. Self driving cars are just making it more obvious.
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