So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".
A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#282I would be interested in comparison to human drivers excluding humans driving under influence. We know that humans under influence are really bad drivers. So bad, that DUI is illegal. Stats commonly include accidents caused these drivers.
Is this not the "no-true-scotsman" fallacy? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman )
For example, let's say an analysis tells us that a disease X has 1.0% mortality rate. Would you consider additional analyses that tell us that 90% of these are kids under 10 and that mortality rate for kids under 10 is 10% an useful insight or not?
EDIT: Maybe a better example would be a results from real studies that show a slight U curve for relationship between alcohol intake and total mortality. People not drinking any alcohol have higher total mortality than people who drink in moderation. Without additional data it seems that a moderate amount of alcohol is good for your health. Data from a newer study however shows that, if you exclude people who don't drink because of health issues, there is no U curve anymore and people not drinking any alcohol don't have higher total mortality than people who drink in moderation.
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#283I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…
I feel like I saw a self driving concept in the last few years where the headlights had eyes that could appear to be looking at you to signal that it was aware of your presence?
I guess it depends how they did it exactly. If it looked like an animal or cartoon character etc, that's what I would hate.
If it wasn't pretending to be an aware and caring being, that would be ok.
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If self-driving cars are widely available They won't be "widely available" because of the higher prices, just look at the EV market right now. You won't get a self-driving $2,000 clunker, and when you drive a $2,000 clunker you don't do it because you "like it", but because that's all that you can afford.
Ah yes. Technological progress will never happen.
Otherwise, believing in "technological progress" as a potential solution is just just that, an irrational belief.
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#285I wonder if this will ever make it to Canada's winter wonderland where there is ice and snow on the road for 4 months of the year (more or less in other areas.)
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
They are faking their way through using a Lidar-heavy approach. When it works it's great, but when it fails it's dog level pathetic.
Do you think the future is behind depth analysis from 2D pictures rather than in lidar scanning? I know lidars are quite pricey, but I haven’t heard of regular camera breakthroughs in the domain.
Waymo's safety data, on carefully curated paths, with human assistance and in the most car-centric cities in the world, is worthless. When these things hit the real world, with black ice, open manhole covers potholes etc. etc. don't expect lidar to save you from disaster. Maybe the average safety case can be made, but that won't be acceptable if they regularly kill people by confusing cows with flying plastic bags.
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#287Still worse than public transport, wastes more resources and endangers cyclists and pedestrians. I have yet to see anything that deserves to be called progress in self-driving. Yet another scam to sell more wasteful, inefficient vehicles.
Public transport is not the answer to everything man and saying this again and again is cringe. -A man in his 20s who doesn't need a car and only uses public transport
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#288I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…
I was just in CA for a few weeks and drove in SF quite a bit. There are Waymo cars everywhere and from the perspective of a driver I was more than a little cautious driving behind or next to one of them. I would rate their driving as quite good, but their signaling of intent was terrible. More than once did I see them use turn signals, only to never actually turn. Turn the signals on, then off again, then on again, e…
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a cyclist I avoid eye contact like the plague: it's only a small minority of drivers, but that small minority is dangerous enough to outweigh all benefits eye contact might have with others. Some drivers will inevitably read eye contact as "the cyclist has seen me and understood that my big and dangerous car will crush them without taking harm so they will yield no matter what traffic rules might say, so I will go…
Not just as a cyclist. As a pedestrian in one of those huge Asian metropolises with absolutely bonkers traffic, you should never ever make eye contact either. It’s the only way drivers will stop for you.
Actually, I got a fairly strong feeling that Shanghai traffic has gotten noticeably less crazy over time, but I can't rule out that I was just observing the local traffic of different regions of Shanghai at different times.
Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles
#290I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…
I ride my bike several times a day, and I have very mixed views about Waymo, etc. I care immensely about traffic safety (so much I moved to the Netherlands). If you took the world as it is now and left everything the same except that every car was a waymo and there were no human-driven cars left, I would be ecstatic. Humans are horrible drivers and some of them are downright murderous. If every car were a waymo I cou…