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Next stop: Miami

waymo.com

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Re: Next stop: Miami

#281

Post by fixprix »

sixQuarks wrote: post #168
fixprix wrote: post #85

Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles. I don’t know how Waymo can possibly compete with that. Their deployment by city is slow, their hardware is expensive, slown to produce, and not purpose built for self driving.

You are exactly right. Look at how you’re getting downvoted. It’s so disappointing that this so-called tech community is so deranged because of their hatred of Musk so much that they’re not willing to look at the facts. If it was any other company doing what Tesla is doing with their self driving, the comments here would be completely different.

Meh they got Bitcoin wrong as well and after 15 years still think it’s a scam.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#282

Post by fixprix »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #265
sixQuarks wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are exactly right. Look at how you’re getting downvoted. It’s so disappointing that this so-called tech community is so deranged because of their hatred of Musk so much that they’re not willing to look at the facts. If it was any other company doing what Tesla is doing with their self driving, the comments here would be completely different.

> they’re not willing to look at the facts. Quite the opposite. The facts are that Elon Musk is notorious for overselling and missing deadlines. RoboTaxi has supposed to have come out how long ago? How much did Cybertruck get delayed? Roadster was supposed to be out 4 years ago, and there's now basically not a peep about it. Elon has taken who knows how much money from people for reservations, and 4 years later they'…

So Waymo has 2 years left before the fun starts. Unless Waymo can build and design their own car in that time, they are screwed. CyberCab is way cheaper and can be built at a much faster rate.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#283

Post by tialaramex »

thegrim33 wrote: post #244
tialaramex wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's too dangerous for humans to drive (regardless of whether they do anyway, humans do all manner of things which are unacceptably dangerous) then I don't expect Waymo to offer service even if they believe they technically could have the Waymo driver [their software] continue to deliver service.

You moved the goalpost by introducing the "too dangerous for humans to arrive" qualifier. The person you're replying to never said that. They asked if it would refuse to drive in pouring rain. They never asked if it would refuse to drive in scenarios where it's too dangerous for humans to drive.

The problem is that "pouring rain" is vague. So that's why I drew a more specific line.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#284

Post by thrownv7032g »

standardUser wrote: post #216
comte7092 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the end of the day that isn’t a technical problem but a unit economics one. Removing the driver from a taxi doesn’t bring down costs that much . Self driving cars aren’t going to change the uber/taxi model at a fundamental level. They have a finite fleet that they need to deploy. Urban centers mean that fleet utilization is high, and relatively less time and miles are spent driving with no one on board. In rural a…

That doesn't follow from the facts. Rideshare drivers get around 50% of the fare (though this seems to vary from 25%-75%). And many riders tip 10-20% of the total. Most of that cost goes away if a single operator is monitoring ~10 cars. The tip goes away entirely. An average per-trip reduction of ~50% changes the economics entirely.

The driver's 50% pays for depreciation, insurance, car maintenance, and cleaning, all of which will need to be paid for no matter what

Re: Next stop: Miami

#285

Post by thrownv7032g »

sixQuarks wrote: post #142
bbor wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine it's hard to quantify "profit" with such a research-driven org. It's like penciling out the profitability of the metaverse after years of $XX billion dollar losses. In general I get the sense that Waymo is more of a diverse investment than a pure ride-hailing play; for example, as of 2020 they were working for Volvo, Chrysler, Jaguar, and Nissan[1], presumably for $$$. It's also worth remembering that Zoox…

[flagged]

Did the Tesla take the highway and the Waymo not?

Re: Next stop: Miami

#286

Post by oblio »

fixprix wrote: post #275
oblio wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles. Don't fall for the hype.

This is fundamental. Waymo doesn’t make cars. They can’t scale like Tesla can. Waymo vehicles are way more expensive and not optimized at all for FSD, it’s all bolt on. If nothing changes, when CyberCab comes around Waymo will be screwed.

It's not fundamental. We know how to make cars. Other companies are also adding sensors to their existing cars.

Waymo is partnering with existing car companies and those have a lot more production capacity than Tesla.

I had also hoped you Teslabros would chill with the Tesla hype when Model 3 was supposed to cost 35k but the cheapest model is about 45k, the cheapest Cybertruck was supposed to also be about 35k but instead it's about 100k, the Semi isn't doing much, the Roadster is still vaporware, FSD is nowhere near FSD...

Re: Next stop: Miami

#287

Post by philistine »

allturtles wrote: post #226
ndileas wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is indeed one solution to this "problem". However, maybe people who live in the sticks should just accept the tradeoffs that come with rural life? If you want next day delivery and taxi service maybe you should live in a place that has those? Not every service has to serve all people in all places and times equally. The government should absolutely not be mandating service levels across the whole US.

Some people need to live in "the sticks" to produce the resources (food, ores, oil, timber) that the rest of society relies on. Subsidizing the availability of services for those people doesn't seem unreasonable, and it is certainly something the federal government has historically taken responsibility for (for mail, electricity, telephone).

So people in the sticks are entitled to self-driving ride-sharing. Then why not casinos, operas, theme parks?

The deal has always been and will always be the same for the rural people: more freedom for less things to do.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#288

Post by fixprix »

oblio wrote: post #286
fixprix wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is fundamental. Waymo doesn’t make cars. They can’t scale like Tesla can. Waymo vehicles are way more expensive and not optimized at all for FSD, it’s all bolt on. If nothing changes, when CyberCab comes around Waymo will be screwed.

It's not fundamental. We know how to make cars. Other companies are also adding sensors to their existing cars. Waymo is partnering with existing car companies and those have a lot more production capacity than Tesla. I had also hoped you Teslabros would chill with the Tesla hype when Model 3 was supposed to cost 35k but the cheapest model is about 45k, the cheapest Cybertruck was supposed to also be about 35k but in…

Again, Waymo sensors are expensive. Waymo cars are also expensive, 4 seaters with lots of other parts included for manual driving.

Unless Waymo is working to design their own car for self driving they’re not going to be able to compete with a much cheaper self driving vehicle. Tesla will flood the market.

Also ‘partnering’ you think legacy auto is going to let a middle man like Waymo ‘use’ their cars once self driving taxi services are here. They will cut out Waymo middle man fast. People will be buying subscriptions to Honda and Ford taxi services, not Waymo.

I think you forgot to factor in 10 years of inflation into your prices. A factory for Semi is being built in Nevada as we speak. And FSD is incredibly good, it can drive today in far more places than a Waymo can. Personally it drives me 90% of the time, and the next update with auto parking support it’ll be up to 99%.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#289

Post by cozzyd »

yellowstuff wrote: post #133
jeffbee wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo does not have 85k cars lol. In their latest CPUC report they only have 480 cars in California and that is their biggest market by far. If they had 85k cars and only 175k rides per week that would be the worst business in the history of businessing.

It looks like they contracted to buy "up to" 20,000 Jaguars: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/27/waymo-sel... Pretty effective press release! Nothing in it is untrue, but it's obviously misleading even to careful readers.

Yes, and I have up to 20,000 jaguars in my garage. (ok, I don't even have a garage...)

Re: Next stop: Miami

#290

Post by standardUser »

thrownv7032g wrote: post #284
standardUser wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't follow from the facts. Rideshare drivers get around 50% of the fare (though this seems to vary from 25%-75%). And many riders tip 10-20% of the total. Most of that cost goes away if a single operator is monitoring ~10 cars. The tip goes away entirely. An average per-trip reduction of ~50% changes the economics entirely.

The driver's 50% pays for depreciation, insurance, car maintenance, and cleaning, all of which will need to be paid for no matter what

I know that rideshare workers have a raw deal, but they are absolutely not paying all of their earnings towards cleaning their car and insurance give me a break. Fulltime drivers are making a living. A robot literally requires 100% less costs for living. Plus no tip.
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