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Buy payphones and retire

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Re: Buy payphones and retire

#281

Post by throwaway2037 »

ac29 wrote: post #206
SirMaster wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rental income doesn't need any work if you are just an investor though. I don't do a single thing. The people who are managing the deal are the ones who do the work and hire the workers to work on site and such. They of course get an even better return during the sale, but I am happy with what I get for doing nothing. My rental properties are paying me a decent passive income of about 6%, and additionally the total i…

>additionally the total investment about doubles in roughly 5 years According to data at FRED ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS ), the median US home price has gone from $320k to $420k in the past 5 years (an increase of around 30%). So, I guess good for you that you happen to have done so much better than the median, but your results are atypical at best, and misleading at worst.

Thank you to share this data. 320->240 in 5 years is 5.6% compounded. It is hard for home prices to outpace a combination of inflation and real economic growth rates for very long. As some point, home prices stall out because buyers cannot get enough leverage from mortgages.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#282

Post by eru »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #273
eru wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would working men of the world uniting be a disaster for my ETF? Don't the working men need machines and capital to work? > If you have $20M and your lifestyle requires no more than $800K/yr of income taxed a waaaaay lower rates than the working stiffs pay on the same, then a 4% return more than suffices to live off of income that is waaaaay more passive than most passive income frauds even come close to promisin…

My comment is very specific about the ultra rich who use tax sheltering to reduce taxable burden on passive income from bonds: In the US, there is (was?) a special class of municipal (state/local) bonds call "triple tax-free"/TTF, where the owner can receive interest, but pay no federal, state, or local taxes. Of course, there are limits, but it is a big business, and the buyers are almost always ultra rich. To be cl…

Well, you can also use the buy-borrow-die strategy in the US to avoid capital gains taxes.

Here in my adopted home of Singapore we don't have such silly things as capital gains taxes. Makes things a lot simpler for the average person who doesn't want to pay for the lawyers and accountants.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#283

Post by throwaway2037 »

derf_ wrote: post #153
andrewla wrote: post #57

The concept of "passive income" is almost a scissor concept. Or maybe only if you couple it with the categorical imperitive. On the one hand, it's so obviously true that it would be great to have passive income. Draw the salary you're drawing now, with some growth, and not have to work. On the other hand, if everyone had access to this capability then society and civilization would grind to a halt. People make things…

> On the other hand, if everyone had access to this capability then society and civilization would grind to a halt. On the contrary, everyone does use this capability. It is what makes the concept of "retirement" possible. You borrow money when you are young and do not have much of value to contribute to society (for education, for purchasing a home, maybe for starting other ventures), you earn money during your prod…

    > It is what makes the concept of "retirement" possible.
Sorry, I disagree. What makes retirement possible in highly advanced economies is a national pension. In the US and many other rich countries, a huge portion of elderly, retired people only live from national pension. It is scary how many poor, elderly people exist when you look closely. The vast majority of Americans will retire with zero or "peanuts" in their 401K, or spend it down very quickly, then become 100% dependent upon national pension ("Social Security") or their family/children/charity.

On a personal note, each time one of my co-workers shares about their retirement savings, I am shocked by the tiny amounts. They will retire into "virtual" poverty compared to their current compensation. They are living for today, not tomorrow.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#284

Post by HPsquared »

pezezin wrote: post #146
crooked-v wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many huge contextual differences between the US and Japan when it comes to vending machines, but the most obvious one is that Japan is eminently walkable, while the US is so pedestrian-unfriendly that there's no guarantee that people will even be around your row of vending machines in the first place.

> but the most obvious one is that Japan is eminently walkable Big cities like Tokyo or Osaka are walkable; outside of them, Japan quickly devolves into very pedestrian-unfriendly urban sprawl (I know because I live in one such place). But somehow you still find plenty of vending machines everywhere, even besides a road in an otherwise empty field.

Vending machine in an empty field just reminds me of Japan's low crime rate.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#285

Post by refurb »

andai wrote: post #74
andrewla wrote: post #57

The concept of "passive income" is almost a scissor concept. Or maybe only if you couple it with the categorical imperitive. On the one hand, it's so obviously true that it would be great to have passive income. Draw the salary you're drawing now, with some growth, and not have to work. On the other hand, if everyone had access to this capability then society and civilization would grind to a halt. People make things…

>If the goal is to have a system where everyone can have passive income, then achieving that goal is the end of the world. If AI and robotics continue to be developed, then eventually most human labor becomes uneconomical by comparison. At that point, the system provides passive income on a mass scale (UBI) to prevent its own violent destruction. At least, that's the good ending.

Or, what has already happened through the massive technological advances of the past thousand years, AI and robots replace human labor, and humans spend their time doing something else, whether being the person in charge of the robots, or breaking into an entirely new area of work that never existed before.

It’s the same argument that was made back before printing presses, the cotton Ginny, tractors, cars, etc, etc.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#286

Post by HPsquared »

hyperhopper wrote: post #223
zdw wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan also has very flexible zoning for residential and commercial uses, so nearly anyone can host a vending machine as a commercial enterprise, which would generally not be allowed in most other places with different laws. Also, some of them are insanely thin, like 25cm depth for a cold drink machine, so they can fit nearly anywhere with a power outlet.

The vast majority of vending machines in Japan are allmost as deep as American counterparts. And even if not, maybe we could just have more thin vending machines here. Also the zoning issue is just a very clear policy failure. I don't think even the most hardcore NIMBY suburbanites would complain about being able to get meat and dairy steps from their front door in an automated low traffic fashion.

The zoning thing again comes back to high trust. Trust that businesses aren't going to screw up the neighborhood.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#287

Post by bdjsiqoocwk »

btilly wrote: post #42

Ah. Passive income. It can indeed work out for you, but it is the fact that it can work out that makes it so tempting for scammers. Warren Buffett claims that the best business that he was ever in was installing pinball machines in barber shops, then splitting the revenue with the barbers. See https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/19/warren-buffett-bought-a-25-p... for verification.

He was obviously joking

> As Buffett told Gates in the Omaha candy shop: “It was the best business I was ever in. I peaked very early in my business career.”

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#288

Post by HPsquared »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #104
bbarn wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a non-technical friend that runs a vending machine business. He targets exclusively small locations like gas stations, bodegas, etc. He makes a great living, but he's also started farming out filling and collection to employees now because it's a lot of driving and work to do it.

That makes no sense to me. Why would a gas station or bodega invite an automated competitor onto their property? Unless the vending machines offer some merchandise the store is unable/unwilling to carry?

It depends on the machine and what it sells. Some machines might actually draw paying customers to the store.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#289

Post by ElFitz »

ryandrake wrote: post #117
ElFitz wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, a major obstacle on the path to UBI is that it seems to conflict with the interests of those who benefit from the current status quo. If everyone receives a sufficient basic income, who will fix their toilets or clean their yachts? If the answer is ’no one’, then I’m afraid we’ll need significant advances in automation and robotics—or pitchforks—before we see UBI implemented. But my point of view may be simpli…

Technology is quickly helping to eliminate the "pitchfork" option. By the time we are in a world where human labor is unnecessary or worth nearly nothing, the elite will have all the automated surveillance and robo-policing technology they need to prevent rioting and pitchforks, and more secure ways to remain safely isolated from the rabble. When it comes to "what Sci-Fi future we're headed towards" I would bet on so…

It might indeed be easier to develop automated surveillance, reinforce police states, and isolate themselves, than create working robot-plumbers, automated 3 star worthy kitchens, and self-cleaning boat decks.

And it might be cheaper for them than UBI.

Re: Buy payphones and retire

#290

Post by bdjsiqoocwk »

SoftTalker wrote: post #52
cryptozeus wrote: post #44

Slight off topic self rant: I tried this (dropshipping etc), went against all the good wisdom and rules of creating honest and passionate business. Failed miserably. Funny how brain works, I knew in 3 months that this is not honest, it feels spammy but then orders were coming in so I convinced myself that half the amazon products are doing the same thing. There is market for it then why should I not do this. This nag…

The lesson here is that there really is no free lunch. There is no secret, no-work way to make lots of money. If anyone can do it, there's little value in it so you won't make much money. If you have thousands of dollars to invest and want to do no work, just buy index funds.

> there really is no free

> just buy index funds

Sounds like your contradicting yourself. Sounds like index funds are in fact a free lunch.

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