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Artificial intelligence is losing hype

economist.com

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#282

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

When Weizenbaum demonstrated Eliza to his colleagues, some thought there was an intelligent consciousness at the heart of it. Few even continued to believe this after they were shown the source code, which they were able to read and understand. Human consciousness is full of biases and the most advanced AI cannot reliably determine which of two floats is bigger or even solve really simple logic puzzles for little kid…

Especially if you remember that the change needed for the first "breakthrough" (GPT4) was RLHF. That is, a model that was specifically trained to mesmerize.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Content Generation: Spam isn't a feature. See also, this whole message that could just have been the headlines. > 2. Customer Service and Support: So… less clear than the website and not empowered to do anything (beyond ruining your reputation) because even you don't trust it? > 3. Summarization and Insights: See 1, spam isn't a feature. This is just trying to undo the damage from that (and failing). > 4. HR Can…

This seems unecessarily negative to me. >Content Generation I'm working on AI tools for teachers and I can confidently say that GPT is just unbelievably good at generating explanations, exercises, quizes etc. The onus to review the output is on the teacher obviously, but given they're the subject matter experts, a review is quick and takes a fraction of the time that it would take to otherwise create this content fro…

It is negative. Because the rest of us are still forced to wade through the endless worthless sludge your ilk produces.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#284

It’s become an invaluable resource for my team in debugging scripts we’ve written for our services. There are a couple of third-party integrations that have been helping us greatly increase our release of features and fixes for problems in our company.

This is why I feel like OpenAI and the public release of ChatGPT has probably done more damage than good. In trying to get ahead of everyone else, they have thrown a lot of great tech under the bus trying to get market dominance.

It has made people lump all AI technology into a bubble regardless of it is functional or not.

You are using this stuff to do some really cool things, but having hype attached to it can be very positive short term, damaging in the medium term and neutral long term. We are moving into the medium term.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are hundreds of billions of dollars figuring out how to get to the next level, and it's clear we are close. Are we really now? The smart people I've spoken to on the subject seem to agree the current technology based on LLM are at the end of the road and that there are no breakthrough in sight. So what is your take on the next level?

Define breakthrough, there's plenty of room to scale and optimize without any need for a breakthrough (well my definition of breakthrough). Emergent properties so far have been obtained purely from scaling.

There will be no more progress via scaling. All the available training data has already been exploited.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#286

As usual, when we see a thread on this topic on HN, the reactions tend to be bimodal: either "Yes, AI has transformed my workflow" (which is where I mostly fall), or "No, it's over-hyped." The latter often comes with an anecdote about how an LLM failed at a relatively simple task. I speculate that this diversity in opinion might be related to whether or not the user is employing a pro-tier LLM. Personally, I've been…

Yes, I think if we ask about a more trivial thing we will have the same responses. For example, “Do you put the toilet paper roll with the paper coming over the top or hanging under the bottom?”.

Regarding LLMs I bet we will see them evolving. Don't forget about https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41269791 there are many problems that LLMs are no good for but they are being better that many Google search results, and that means something from the economic point of view.

I am sure that The Economist analytics is having a good moment /s.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems unecessarily negative to me. >Content Generation I'm working on AI tools for teachers and I can confidently say that GPT is just unbelievably good at generating explanations, exercises, quizes etc. The onus to review the output is on the teacher obviously, but given they're the subject matter experts, a review is quick and takes a fraction of the time that it would take to otherwise create this content fro…

It is negative. Because the rest of us are still forced to wade through the endless worthless sludge your ilk produces.

reducing the load on overworked teachers by using GPT to generate exercises, quizes and explanations for students is "endless worthless sludge"?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#289
post #15

To be honest, I was surprised by ChatGPT. I didn’t think we were close. We are running out of textual data now to train on… so now they have switched to VIDEO. Geez now they can train on all the VIDEOS on the internet. And when they finally get bots working, they will have limitless streams of TACTILE data… Writing it off as the next fad seems fun. But to be honest, I was shocked by what openai did the first time. So…

Good point about robots. But there will be a throughput issue. You cannot accelerate physical movement.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#290
AI is a very strange thing where 2 seemingly smart coders use it and one comes out thinking it's obviously revolutionary and the other one thinking it's a waste of time and where 2 seemingly smart journalists use it and one thinks AGI and the end of the world is nigh and the other one thinks the market will crash when the hype dies over.

I think part of it is due to the politically and internet-induced death of nuance. But part of it I can't fully understand.

Personally I think it's rather useful. I don't consider myself a heavy user and still use it almost every day to help code, I ask it a lot of questions about specific and general stuff. It's partially or totally substituted for me: Stack Overflow, Google Search, Google Translate, most tech references. In the office I see people using it all the time, there's almost always a chatgpt window open in some of the displays.

I think it's very difficult to say this is 100% hype and/or a "phase". It's almost a proven fact it's useful and people will want it in their lives. Even if it never improves again, ever. It's a new tool in the toolbox and there will be businesses providing it as a service, or perhaps we will get to open source general availability.

On the other extreme, all the AI doomerism and AGI stuff to me seems almost as unfounded as before generative AI. Sure, it's likely we'll get to AGI one day. But if you thought we were 100 years away, I don't think chatgpt put us any closer to it and I just don't get people who now say 5. I'd rather they worried about the impact of image gen AI in deepfakes and misinformation. That's _already_ happening.

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