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Taking Risk

tomblomfield.com

281–290 of 304 posts

Re: Taking Risk

#281
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are the one who started talking about "scammy". Look at what I've said, I've JUST said that US is more tolerant with con artist and bullshitters. I did NOT say "start-ups are con artist and/or bullshitter". What I mean is that US is less concerned to dodgy things, the more extreme being scam, the more benign being, for example, unrealistic claims. I'm just saying that the two are from the same mentality. In other…

> You are the one who started talking about "scammy". Not really? You said "con artist", did you not? "Scammer" is a near one-for-one replacement, I said "scammy" because "conny" isn't a word. > I did NOT say "start-ups are con artist and/or bullshitter". This is absolutely the implication of what you said. If I say, "I don't know how I feel about Ted Cruz, I don't like voting for rapists", then I didn't explicitly s…

> Not really

And again, "con artist" was not talking about start-up.

> This is absolutely the implication of what you said.

That is incorrect. I can see why you can interpret it like that, and indeed I should have been more clear, but it's just incorrect to pretend that there is a logical implication.

It's more like saying "I don't know how I feel about Ted Cruz, but then again, once, I voted for a rapist". In this case, it does not mean that I imply that Ted Cruz is a rapist, it just mean that my bar is as low as voting for a rapist. It does not mean I'm saying Ted Cruz is a rapist, it can totally mean that Ted Cruz is probably therefore above the bar. This is way more what I've said in the previous comment: "US people are less uncomfortable with start-up that will have unrealistically ambitious claims, but then again, US people are less unforgiving with con artists, so it's not surprising".

> but "con artists" is a lot more specific and critical than that, and that's what I was responding to.

And again, even if we go to the "start-up / scam" discussion, none of that is saying that all start-up are scam or that none of the non-start-up are not scam, but again, some start-ups are scam, this is just a fact. You seem to react like if saying that some start-ups are scam is going to far.

Re: Taking Risk

#282
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's extraordinary how determined the current UK government is to destroy its university sector. The economic and geopolitical advantages of having one of the world's best university systems are not only incalculable but also blindingly obvious . And yet apparently not too obvious to be missed by the caliber of person that currently makes up the cabinet.

We’re at 170 or so universities up from 90 or so pre-2000. I’m struggling to see the value in those universities and why the tax payer should be funding almost twice as many. Any other failing business would be allowed to go bankrupt and be wound up. Does any other country have such a massive increase in universities?

>Does any other country have such a massive increase in universities?

The increase in university provision and the percentage of young people who go on to university is a world-wide phenomenon: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/eag_highlights-2014-...

The new universities provide exactly the same kind of value that the old ones do, so I'm not sure why it's difficult to see what that value is (unless you just think universities in general are pointless). Countries should invest heavily in their comparative strengths. By any measure the UK punches hugely above its weight in global higher education. It's short-sighted beyond belief to throw that advantage away simply because some universities (a minority in fact) do not turn a profit in the simplistic sense that, say, a lemonade stand does. Moreover, if it is money you are worried about, then the measure that Sunak is proposing will only exacerbate the problem by cutting off a major source of funding.

The newer universities are, of course, not as good on average as the older ones. However, it takes decades, or centuries even, to build a world-class university. It would be a terrible mistake to close down these newer institutions simply because they have not somehow become competitors to the Russell Group or the Ivy League overnight. The short term cost saving (if there even is one) would amount to pennies in comparison to the terrible economic and social consequences to be passed on to future generations. But what hope is there of the current cabinet thinking further than the next few months?

Re: Taking Risk

#283
post #224
post #220

This is the most useless post one can read about some guy who is happy with his life and complain others are not doing things that he is thinking about... > just days before my start date at McKinsey, which finally gave me the confidence to choose the startup over a prestigious job offer. I highly doubt many people are getting offers at McKinsey and getting funded at the same time. The dude talks about risk but he li…

Yes, to get a sense of risk taking, I'd rather hear many stories by risk takers that failed than one story from the guy that succeeded.

I have personally found that success stories aren't that useful to me. Failure stories, on the other hand, are.

Re: Taking Risk

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s often the same person. I had a dozen failures before I struck on the sass product that retired me in my forties. You try, you learn, you improve, and eventually something might work. Or you don’t try, keep your safe job and work until you’re 70 like everyone else.

Thanks for this - I think there's something to also be said about too many people failing once and not trying again. This could be for any number of reasons: 1. burnout 2. life circumstances (dependents like kids, parents or others) 3. time to failure - if you built a company for 9 years, you might have less time and appetite to start again (partly due to 1 and 2) Life is uncertain, many things about our life are pro…

> I think there's something to also be said about too many people failing once and not trying again.

Yes!

If you're an entrepreneur, short term failure is by far the most likely outcome. Successful entrepreneurs are the ones that keep trying until they finally hit on a success.

Re: Taking Risk

#285
post #245
post #220

This is the most useless post one can read about some guy who is happy with his life and complain others are not doing things that he is thinking about... > just days before my start date at McKinsey, which finally gave me the confidence to choose the startup over a prestigious job offer. I highly doubt many people are getting offers at McKinsey and getting funded at the same time. The dude talks about risk but he li…

There is a saying that pessimist is right while optimist makes progress.

[deleted]

Re: Taking Risk

#286
Fantastic post highlighting difference in mindset towards taking risk and starting companies in UK vs US

Re: Taking Risk

#287
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh, I’m guessing from the downvote that the answer is no. That’s kind of what I thought. Risk is often a stand -in for comfort. In general, I find that teams that are willing to be uncomfortable will come through. Ones that aren’t will fall apart. I think this is because at some point, the level of commitment that is typically required to thrust a project above the noise floor implies a significant level of discomfo…

I wasn't the one to downvote you for reference, but to be clear, moving out and abandoning my partner and country so I can put together a half-baked MVP and give away equity for that hard work isn't what I, nor anyone else on this forum I suspect, would consider a good trade. I assume others are downvoting you because your comment sounds like you're running a scam operation. If you want to conflate running away from…

I think i overdid the hypothetical , I’ll agree with you on that. Certainly the need to move is extreme for many people. It’s never been much of an issue for Me so I think I failed to adjust that to most peoples attitudes about travel.

It still reflects a bit though, and in my limited experience it holds true that the successes I have been either involved with or adjacent to have been accomplished by either money in the bank, credit cards, or shedding “normal” expenses by moving to somewhere that the cost of living was maybe twenty percent of normal.

Obviously you’re not going to do any of those things unless you are really sold on the value proposition of your product, and you think it can scale to bring 100x plus rewards on your time.

But if it’s a 10 percent chance of success on a 100x gain, that’s a bet I’ll take all day, every day.

But I don’t criticize anyone for not being willing to drop everything only to probably fail, and repeat that 10 times to get one solid win. That’s not for everyone, to be sure.

But I think that’s really what I mean anyway, if you’re going to try for anything but the low hanging fruit, you’ll have to be willing to do what most people will not.

That doesn’t make it the “right” thing for everyone though, and it sure doesn’t lead to a Healthy work-life balance, at least in the beginning.

Edit: Now that you've got me introspecting a bit, I think I realized my own ideas about these things are probably fundamentally unworkable for most people's dominant paradigm.

I haven't held a job in 40 years, I'm comfortable now but wasn't always. Even when I was young I refused to do anything for money I wouldn't do for free. That is a very expensive attitude to have, and unless you are willing to live in a very primitive way as I was, it is a very hard line to tow.

But I am happy with that decision, it has served me well, and made me very very comfortable and happy in life.

It honestly never occurred to me that anyone would think of starting a business that they weren't just dying to do anyway lol, but now I can see that that's an edge case, and your sincere if unenthusiastic words about your business made that click.

That said, I really don't think anyone should launch a startup or any business that they wouldn't do without compensation if they had the free time. Not that there aren't plenty of opportunities to make money for money's sake, but I just cant see that as being a wise way to spend the very finite hours we have in this life.

Thanks for being sincere, It has helped me to understand others a little better. Ive often seen a lack of total commitment as an insincere interest, but I now think maybe its more nuanced than that for many people. Still, I don't think I would fund or be involved in any project where i felt that the key people could be dissuaded from trying to complete their goal.

Re: Taking Risk

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> are the crazy-high rankings of Britain's top schools The problem(in general) with University rankings is that the ranking is done almost entirely on the number of publications.....in English. So it's no wonder that British universities take a lot of the top spots. I've had these conversations many many many times with people - it's not like the Universities of Warsaw or Milan or Prague are not as good as Oxford -…

> a lot of research doesn't get published in English, so somehow it doesn't "count". As it shouldn't. I am from a non-English speaking country myself, and I cannot begin to tell you how senseless it is to cling to native languages for any serious work. It's creating an arbitrary barrier to collaboration just for pride or convenience. English is the lingua-franca (lol) of the world, just embrace it and stop being prou…

It's not about pride - it's about the reality of the fact that most academics do not have a sufficient command of English to write research papers in that language. We can lament this fact if you wish, but somehow it seems more important to me that a mathematics or chemistry researcher is good at those categories and not necessarily at writing in English. Again, you can think this is their loss - and maybe it is, but my general point is that the quality of their research isn't any worse just because it isn't done in English.

The obvious solution to this is translation - but I'm sure you can see why not every research paper is translated, the cost of doing so would have to be carried by someone so only some papers are translated, which means that by default English-speaking universities are getting a better position in rankings because all of their research counts, no matter how bad or good it is.

>>Imagine Prague universities would have top AI research published in Czech, would that actually help the scientific community?

Well it's a bit of a catch 22 - if it was top AI research, then university of Prague would pay to have it translated and then yes it would help.

Re: Taking Risk

#289
I dropped out of university for my £35k job as if I finished my final term I would have had _literally_ no money and no where to live. I could not afford to take risks. I had no family to rely on.

I was later invited to work for a startup as the first engineer. They offered me £45k which I negotiated up to £50k, which I declined as my stable job raised me to £52k to keep me. This startup is still doing well it seems, but that just wasn't a risk I could afford. I had no liquidity, I was barely saving £200 a month. If the startup fell through and I had no severance, then I would have had to find a job almost immediately or default on my rent.

This article is an extremely privileged take (which it acknowledges). University is relatively cheap in the UK, which makes the people that attend top universities often come from all classes of wealth.

I now have a lot more of my own cash in hand now and can certainly survive a few months of downtime, but I still probably wouldn't go for an early stage startup as I'd likely have to take a huge salary cut and would not be adding into this savings pot. I would rather be in a stable and good band of living rather than risk being on the poverty line again.

Re: Taking Risk

#290
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If FAANG sets up shop in Milan and pays 80k compared to the local average of 40k I see this types of claims on HN frequently. This looks "too easy". Why isn't Big Tech setting up offices in large southern European cities to do exactly this?

I don't know, that's why I'm asking. My guess would be that they didn't get tax incentives or other behind the scenes things that we rarely find out about.

Yeah, I'd say it's mostly tax reasons.

Generally, if you have a substantial presence somewhere, you become liable for a bunch of taxation stuff.

That being said, it's probably also non-English as a first language.

Note that the vast majority of tech in Europe is either in Ireland (tax reasons) or London (city known to Americans), both of which are English speaking.

Switzerland is interesting, in that it's not English speaking. I know that FB generally just set up Eng offices wherever Google did, so the real question is why Google set up there.

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