It is interesting how most M&A transactions trend to have a 30% premium above the trading price. I have tried to investigate why but could not find a good explanation to why this number is so prevalent.
Imagine ranking all the shareholders of the company. For each, you've asked them how much you'd have to give them to convince them to sell. At the top of the list would be the one who is the most interested in selling, and thus is willing to take the lowest price. At the bottom of the list would be the person who is the least interested in selling, and is demanding the highest price. In order to buy one share you ask…
But I think you’re spot-on. If someone owns the stock, usually it’s because they think the company is worth more in the future than it is currently.
And you need to convince the majority of the shareholders to sell it to you now.
So you need to take into account their expected future value on holding, and give them a reasonable risk-adjusted premium for that expected future value of their shares.