Earlier quoted context omitted.
And GPT-4 is nowhere close to the human brain in terms of coding capabilities, and model advancements appear to be hitting an asymptote. So...
I don't see a flattening. I see a lot of other groups catching up to OpenAI and some even slightly surpassing them like Claude 3 Opus. I'm very interested in how Llama 3 400B turns out but my conservative prediction (backed by Meta's early evaluations) is that it will be at least as good as GPT 4. It's been a little over a year since GPT 4 was released to the public and in that time Meta and Anthropic seem to have ca…
Let me phrase this another way: Llama 3 400B releases and it has GPT-5 level performance. Obviously; we have not seen GPT-5; so we don't have a sense of what that level of performance looks like. It might be that OpenAI simply has a one year lead, but it might also be that all these frontier model developers are stuck in the same capability swamp; and we simply don't have the compute, virgin tokens, economic incentives, algorithms, etc to push through it (yet). So, Meta pulls ahead, but we're talking about feet, not miles.