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Daniel Kahneman has died

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Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#281

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This is exactly the kind of task that I want to deploy a long context window model on: "rewrite Thinking Fast and Slow taking into account the current state of research. Oh, and do it in the voice, style and structure of Tim Urban complete with crappy stick figure drawings."

>This is exactly the kind of task that I want to deploy a long context window model on: "rewrite Thinking Fast and Slow taking into account the... I want something similar but for children's literature. From Ralph and the Motorcycle to Peter Pan, a lot of stuff doesn't hold up. The books provide plenty of utility. But many things don't hold up to modern thinking. LLMs provide the opportunity to embrace classic conten…

It will not be anything lice classic content anymore.

You could not redact piece of art out of "old ideas". It is like re-drawing classics paintings but mask nipples and removing blood.

And books which could be redacted this way without falling apart — well, don't read such books at all and don't feed them to the children.

Literature for children must not be dumbed down, but exactly as for adults, but better.

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#282

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I read that as assuming that the "bank teller only" answer implied that the person was not a feminist, since most people would assume that being a bank teller does not make you a feminist. In any case, a bad phrasing to give for a survey.... These questions would be better off being as unambiguous as possible.

Why would that imply she is NOT a feminist? It just gives no information either way.

Because when you're talking to a real human that wants to hear your thoughts about Linda, it's much, much more likely that this is what they're asking and they didn't word it accurately.

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#283
post #132

Although many of the results in Fast and Slow didn't hold up, Kahneman was always refreshingly open and honest about that, and keen to identify the limits of knowledge. Which surely is one of the best things you can say about a scientist.

I was fortunate enough to take a cognitive psych grad seminar from him in the 90s, co-taught by his wife, Anne Treisman. He always seemed given to thinking a little more deeply in the moment than most people do. One half-joking comment he made about science in the real world vs some idealized notion of it has always stuck with me. In a discussion about whether the results of some paper conflicted with some model or t…

> He always seemed given to thinking a little more deeply in the moment than most people do.

"As soon as you present a problem to me, I have some ready-made answer. Those ready-made answers get in the way of clear thinking, and we can’t help but have them." – Daniel Kahneman

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#284
post #276

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It’s worth noting that many of the results in Thinking, Fast and Slow didn’t hold up to replication. It’s still very much worth reading in its own right, but now implicitly comes bundled with a game I like to call “calibrate yourself on the replication crisis”. Playing is simple: every time the book mentions a surprising result, try to guess whether it replicated. Then search online to see if you got it right.

This is unfortunately the case for many books on human behavior. Sure, Dan Ariely comes to mind, but the field itself is very tricky. I don't think we - people used to STEM - appreciate how difficult behavioral psychology is. In STEM, we are used to isolating experiments down, so there are as few variables as possible. And we are used to well-designed experiments being reproducible if everyone does what they are supp…

I don't agree, I think if you understand science in general then you realize at an early age e.g. 20 that social/behavioral science is at best a pseudoscience

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#285

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I find that most nonfiction books follow a common structure: * 1st third of the book: Lays out the basic ideas, gives several examples * 2nd third of the book: More examples that repeat the themes from the 1st part * 3rd third of the book: ??? I usually give up at this point I sometimes wish that more books were like "The Mom Test" - just long enough to say what they need, even if that makes for a short book.

I always think of this from Aaron Swartz: > But let’s say you can narrow it down to one good one, and you can find the time to read it. You plunk down an absurd $30 (of which, I’m told, less than $3 goes to the author) for a bulky hardcover and you quickly discover that the author doesn’t have all that much to say. But a book is a big thing, and they had to fill it all up, so the author padded it. There are several c…

Sounds like the man was arguing against spending a wonderful afternoon sitting in the sun reading anecdotes about something you're interested in.

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#286

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The problem is that Gladwell comes off as trying to be scientific, when really he's just a persuasive storyteller. If you view Gladwell as a purveyor of facts or a science communicator, then he does a horrible job and yes, it's hard to trust whatever he presents because he's at best not very careful about his facts and conclusions. In that case, why would you ever pay attention to him? On the other hand if you see Gl…

The problem with "take it or leave it, it's just a story" is that stories are not neutral, or cost-free. Memes compete for attention/proliferation/survival, and false-but-appealing memes outcompete true-but-boring memes. It's a mini DDOS attack on our collective bandwidth to be churning out durable falsehoods disguised as scientific insight.

Not just that, but real policy comes out of these books. Gladwell is highly influential among leaders of our bureaucracies. So when it comes time to look at airline safety policies, Gladwell's nonsense about Koreans being too hierarchical to fly safely can worm its way in there.

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#287
post #118
post #28

kahneman was such a fascinating personality. Other than "Thinking fast and slow", I highly recommend "The Undoing Project" by Michael Lewis about Kahneman and Tversky's incredible journey changing the standard economic theory. Some interesting talks with Daniel Kahneman - https://www.edge.org/adversarial-collaboration-daniel-kahnem... - https://replicationindex.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-... Kahneman himself…

Don't forget "Noise" it was a great read and great bridge between "Thinking Fast and Slow" with "Nudge"

Nudge is based on a significant amount of messy science and smuggled policy preferences. It has also not really borne out via the policy initiatives started based on its concepts.

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#288
post #6

I'm not one to give an exaggerated eulogy nor rhapsodize about all those "Books with a white cover and a weird picture" -- but I will say I read thinking fast and slow for the first time last year, after decades of resisting, and felt it covered some generally profound ideas that still are relevant as ever and not widely understood. (Though at some point, maybe the 2nd half of the book, drags on and you can skip most…

> If you don't have time for that, I'm sure chat GPT can give you a taste of the main premises and you can probe deeper from there.

From gpt4:

The Two Systems: Kahneman introduces the concept of two distinct systems that govern our thoughts. System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. The operations of System 2 are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration.

Heuristics and Biases: The book explains how the fast, intuitive thinking of System 1 leads to the use of heuristics—a kind of mental shortcut that facilitates quick judgments but can also lead to systematic biases and errors in thinking. Kahneman discusses several of these biases, such as the availability heuristic, where people judge the probability of events by how easily examples come to mind, and the anchoring effect, where people rely too heavily on the first piece of information they encounter.

Overconfidence: One of the themes of the book is the confidence people place in their own beliefs and judgments. Kahneman shows that people tend to overestimate their knowledge and their ability to predict outcomes, leading to a greater confidence in their judgments than is warranted. This overconfidence can contribute to risky decision-making and failure to consider alternative viewpoints.

Prospect Theory: Kahneman, along with Amos Tversky, developed Prospect Theory, which challenges the classical economic theory that humans are rational actors who always make decisions in their best interest. Prospect Theory suggests that people value gains and losses differently, leading to decisions that can seem illogical or irrational. It highlights the asymmetry between the perception of gains and losses, where losses are felt more acutely than gains are enjoyed.

Happiness and Well-being: The book also delves into the determinants of happiness and well-being, distinguishing between the experiencing self (which lives in the present) and the remembering self (which keeps score and makes decisions). Kahneman explores how our happiness is influenced more by how life events are remembered than by the actual experience. This leads to some counterintuitive findings, such as people being happier with experiences that end on a high note, regardless of the overall quality or duration of the experience.

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Had the exact same experience. Maybe someone can enlighten us with why this is -supposedly- such a revelatory book?

It certainly has interesting ideas in small doses but knowing about your heuristics and biases doesn't mean you still don't fall victim to them. The real issue I have with the book is the audio book is read in such boring way by Patrick Egan. I would love to hear a different voice actor take a shot at it as it is not the most exciting book on its own anyway. Then read in such a boring way it reminds me of the worst o…

> Because of its popularity I would say Thinking, Fast and Slow might be the most overrated book I can think of.

The Art of War is the most overrated book, imo. "If the enemy is more powerful than you, don't attack them!"

So profound. -_-

Re: Daniel Kahneman has died

#290
post #158

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Embarrassed because science worked as expected?

Doesn't science require replication? He wrote books based on un-replicated studies. Further, the confidence he extolled about his now debunked ideas make him a charlatan. This person was a bad scientist. If we esteem people who don't check their data and influence millions of people with falsities, we are going to create a society with low trust. Just look at this thread, the man lost respect among the people in the…

>Doesn't science require replication? He wrote books based on un-replicated studies.

People even publish studies on un-replicated research! There might be a lot to be said about his research, but I disagree that publishing your research is the worst thing you can do. Maybe there wouldn't be any replication of his studies if it hadn't been for his books.

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