Solid analysis. A word of warning from personal experience: I am part of a medium-sized software company (2k employees). A few years ago, we wanted to improve dev productivity. Instead of going with new laptops, we decided to explore offloading the dev stack over to AWS boxes. This turned out to be a multi-year project with a whole team of devs (~4) working on it full-time. In hindsight, the tradeoff wasn't worth it.…
This might have to do with scale. At my employer (~7k employees) we started down this path a few years ago as well, and while it has taken longer for remote to be better than local, it now definitively is and has unlocked all kinds of other stuff that wasn't possible with the local-only version. One example is working across multiple branches by switching machines instead of files on local has meant way lower latency…
I work for a not-really-tech company (and I'm not a full-time dev either), so I've been issued a crappy "ultra-portable" laptop with an ultra-low-voltage CPU. I've looked into offloading my dev work to an AWS instance, but was quite surprised that it wasn't any faster than doing things locally for things like Rust compiles.