If I’ve taken anything away from the last 5 days, it’s that the future is significantly more volatile than I originally had thought.
You mean, you hadn't gotten that impression from the last two months or the last two years yet?
OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#282> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.
This makes some sense to me. My experience with GPT is that it is capable of straightforward logical inference, but not more inspired thinking. It lacks the ability for a “eureka moment”. All complex inference it appears to have is a result of its training set. It is incapable of solving certain kinds of logic problems that a child would be able to solve. As an example, take the wolf, goat, and cabbage problem, but c…
Here's a simpler example that works.
Q: Prove that if cos(x) is an integer then so is sin(x).
A: The statement "if cos(x) is an integer, then so is sin(x)" is not true in general. To understand why, let’s consider the properties of sine and cosine. [...]
It had trouble when the problem domain is different from the usual one the same keywords typically fall into.
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because I did stump it, not claim to. Used GPT-4 near when it was released, fed it variations on the problem for about an hour. I found it to be a fascinating exercise because it was teaching be the difference between knowledge (training set) and intelligence (generalization).
It has overfit to the exact wolf, cabbage and goat example but literally change the names to whatever you want and it consistently solves it just fine.
Just tried and it completely fell over: https://chat.openai.com/share/ea9cf93f-0632-48b9-aa47-1bbf31...
Tried on Bing in "Precision" mode as well, and it fell over just the same, but starting with C instead of A.
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not following - if you think AGI is uncertain, shouldn't you actually be more surprised? I mean, looking at it from a bayesian lens, the lower your prior, the more (in absolute percentage points) you would need to adjust it based on new supporting evidence, no?
If you think AGI is uncertain, then maybe it's just an improvement on a paradigm that is near its end state: amazing autocomplete.
Enlighten me then - what is this limit point of "amazing autocomplete"?
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#285Weirdly enough, this sort of lines up with a theory posted on 4chan 4 days ago. The gist being that if the version is formally declared AGI, it can't be licensed to Microsoft and others for commercial gain. As a result Altman wants it not to be called AGI, other board members do. Archived link below. NB THIS IS 4CHAN - THERE WILL OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE. https://archive.ph/sFMXa
It's nothing like that. It solved a few math problems. Altman & co are such grifters. > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company. Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s…
Yup, that would totally threaten humanity — with math problems instead of "find images of crosswalks" style capchas to the poing where humans will jusy give up /s
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#286Weirdly enough, this sort of lines up with a theory posted on 4chan 4 days ago. The gist being that if the version is formally declared AGI, it can't be licensed to Microsoft and others for commercial gain. As a result Altman wants it not to be called AGI, other board members do. Archived link below. NB THIS IS 4CHAN - THERE WILL OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE. https://archive.ph/sFMXa
Also there is this recent comment on reddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/16sdu6w/rip_ji... Prior post was 5 years ago!
That's the real Sam Altman? Looks like it! And he just randomly posts on reddit that AGI has been achieved internally? (Later edits the post to say he's just kidding)? Weird.
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#287Weirdly enough, this sort of lines up with a theory posted on 4chan 4 days ago. The gist being that if the version is formally declared AGI, it can't be licensed to Microsoft and others for commercial gain. As a result Altman wants it not to be called AGI, other board members do. Archived link below. NB THIS IS 4CHAN - THERE WILL OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE. https://archive.ph/sFMXa
Altman has no stake in OpenAI, how could he make money licensing it?
If they actually have AGI, then being at the helm of could represent more power than any amount of money could. Money just gives you access to human labour, which would suddenly be massively devalued for those with access to AGI.
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#288Earlier quoted context omitted.
You have all the choice in the world. If you want, you can literally go and do subsistence farming — there are plenty countries in the world with extremely lax visa situation and plenty of empty land. Of course, doing this would extremely hard and dangerous. But living an easier and safer life is the whole point of the industrial revolution and it's consequences, so if you truly believe that it's the disaster for the…
Any meaningful impact has to come from governments, from large companies, and from huge numbers of concerned citizens. One person running off to live in the woods does nothing except make them miserable, or happy, or both.
Well that is a convenient answer.
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#289You've got to hand it to OpenAI for their bleeding edge marketing strat: "WE'VE GOT AN AGI IN THIS CABINET RIGHT HERE AND WE DON'T WANT TO LET IT OUT BECAUSE IT'S SO POWERFUL, IT'S SO AI YOU HAVE NO IDEA, BEST YOU THROW MONEY AT US AND WE'LL KEEP EVERYONE SAFE BUT SORRY YOU"RE ALL REDUNDANT BECAUSE AGI, SORRY" You'd think that so soon after so many Crypto scams people would be just a wee bit less credulous.
Also in the news today, the 86B share sale is back on.
I mean... come on.
Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
The moment I read about that clause I was shocked that Microsoft lawyers would agree to such subjectivity that can have incredibly expensive implications. Were they expecting it to never happen and were just ready to throw a mountain of lawyers at any claim?
The OpenAI charter makes very strong soecific statements about the capabilities that qualify as AGI. Microsoft is more than legally talented enough to challenge any proclamation of AGI that didn't satisfy a court's read of the qualifications. So it's facially subjective, but not practically once you include resolving a dispute in court. I'd even argue that Microsoft may have taken advantage of the board's cult-like b…
Funny thing though, if OpenAI achieved something close to strong AGI, they could use it to beat Microsoft's "mountain of lawyers" in court! Take this as a true test of AI capability (and day zero of the end of the world).