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Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

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Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#281

Post by CamperBob2 »

paulmd wrote: post #273
paulmd wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This specifically and undeniably is what is killing unity too. They have always run on free money, they have literally never turned a profit in the history of the company, and with the end of 0% interest rate policy the music is over. The fact that they borrowed bigtime to buy this adtech company (hence the push for “if you use our ads, no fee increase!”) and are now deeply deeply underwater is forcing the issue, the…

the xbox stuff I wanted to give more explanation and sourcing/perspectives without bloating the above PS5 has won the console war, Series X's hardware advantage has been subsumed by upscaling into a meaningless "runs 840p instead of 720p input res" thing that doesn't sell consoles and Sony has actually organically built studios that pump out exclusive content that does draw in customers. Microsoft has largely failed…

Well, they aren't going to in front of the FTC and make themselves look huge and successful and dominating, now, are they.

Phil's entire job is to communicate the idea that they have to acquire third-party studios to keep the business running at all. "If you don't let us buy Activision, then we'll just be forced to fold our tents, and then there will be even LESS competition. You don't want THAT, do you?"

When in reality, Microsoft's attitude toward the Xbox division has always been more like Citizen Kane. "Why, yes, we lost $100 million last year, and we're on track to lose $150 million this year. At this rate, if things don't improve, we might have to shut this place down in... let's see... 12,000 years."

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#282

Post by johnnyanmac »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #78
enriquec wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

everyone looking for any reason when its obviously a massive recession due to govt. spending

It's monetary policy tightening (effective rate 0% -> ~5%), not government spending. There is no recession, just normalization (zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP, was an abnormality). Unemployment is close to lowest levels in history because of structural demographics. When money gets more expensive, you must perform, adapt, or die as a business. Cashflow is king, and profits juiced from government stimulus mentione…

>There is no recession, just normalization (zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP, was an abnormality).

I mean, both can be true. ZIRP wasn't made over the recessions either. Tech has been in that rush for at least 12 years now. If not longer. You mention 15-20 years after all.

We had at least one recession during your time period. It doesn't preclude another one.

>labor shortages in the post-pandemic era have led many employers to hold on to workers and hire less-skilled workers—even though they expect demand for their goods or services to weaken in the future. As a result, unemployment remains low, and labor productivity has declined."

I see this as a natural consequence to their actions, though. You require "Junior" engineers to have 3+ years of experience, discourage apprenticeships in lieu of short internship stints and headhunting acedemia, and overall try and compartmentalize engineering roles. So no surprise that labor in the Gen Z won't be as skilled as the Gen X that rose entire industries from the ground up. It's due (but not limited to):

- tech being more complex. How many people worked on Google search in 1999? How many work on search alone in 2023, let alone the other 30+ division Google has now.

- top talent more and more seeking out their own business ventures. Same questions as above. More startups and more Ycombinators to fund them. People really want to be or to fund "the next big thing" in a rate not seen since the Dot Com era.

- simply being ubiquitous. You can work in tech without being in a tech company. If you don't like the hustle of FAANG or high frequency trading, there are plenty of places who just need to maintain their website outside of tech. This won't drive growth as much, but it pays the bills.

There's many factors behind this, but I will emphasize that people requiring top talent need to invest in them. Schools don't have the same goals as employers, and schools as is are becoming more cost prohibitive as is.

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#283

Post by CamperBob2 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #78
enriquec wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

everyone looking for any reason when its obviously a massive recession due to govt. spending

It's monetary policy tightening (effective rate 0% -> ~5%), not government spending. There is no recession, just normalization (zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP, was an abnormality). Unemployment is close to lowest levels in history because of structural demographics. When money gets more expensive, you must perform, adapt, or die as a business. Cashflow is king, and profits juiced from government stimulus mentione…

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS (Pick 10Y time scale)

The Max timescale is even more interesting. Almost every time one of those gray-shaded recessionary periods begins, it's preceded by a graph segment that looks a lot like the last couple of years.

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#284

Post by crtasm »

myaccountonhn wrote: post #204
rb2e wrote: post #34

oh No, they sold Bandcamp... According to Jason Schreier https://twitter.com/jasonschreier/status/1707416234461909487

Hopefully they don't mess it up too badly. Bandcamp is the only way for a Linux user not in the US to get non-DRM music these days :(.

Are Junodownload, Boomkat, Bleep, Qobuz, etc. available in your country?

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#285

Post by danbolt »

danielvaughn wrote: post #30

Shouldn't there be games coming out fairly soon (next 1-2 years) that take advantage of Lumen/Nanite/Quixel/Metahuman? From my POV, the future looks bright for Unreal because those technologies give it a pretty crazy edge over its competitors, and that's not even taking into account the Unity fiasco.

If those tools can give a productivity edge for the sort of experiences you’d see in AAA games, then perhaps! Tech demos don’t always translate into compelling interactive art, which can be challenging!

I haven’t studied Unreal enough to say for sure, but I think those tools can be a boon if they enable a less technical developer to do things that normally took a lot more time.

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#286

Post by smabie »

pineapple_guy wrote: post #279
smabie wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that if your job is more enjoyable, you're getting a productivity boost. Unless you're suggesting that using an llm is just as efficient as not, but is somehow more fun?

Possibly, but why assume that developers are passing on that increased productivity without expecting a relative pay increase?

Why would they get a pay increase? Everyone can use LLMs.

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#287

Post by kyleee »

madeofpalk wrote: post #248
madeofpalk wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think the top 10% of workers are getting, at a minimum, a 30% productivity boost? You think they're getting in an extra 1.5 days worth of work a week because they're using Copilot?

Another way of spinning this - if "fancy autocomplete" is giving you a 30% productivity boost then either you're not actually in the top 10%, or you're doing working on "top 10% problems".

Which of course, is the overwhelming majority of people! Perhaps about 90% of people :)

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#288

Post by 1123581321 »

btown wrote: post #274
btown wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm somewhat hopeful about the synergies here. Giving musicians an easy path to monetize their catalog, as well as market their availability to be commissioned by brands, is a good thing... especially when artists are being dually hammered by Spotify's deci-cents-per-stream industry baseline and live music promoters' anticompetitive behavior. That said, there are ways Songtradr could abuse their new position of trust…

Self-reply: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37696171 makes me less hopeful that they're operating in good faith...

Interesting. I didn’t know about the union aspect and regardless, not retaining staff is a great way to stop understanding what’s important to preserve.

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#289

Post by kyleee »

paxys wrote: post #62
bcrosby95 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdote coming up, but when Google laid off a bunch of people those that I know that worked there said the most critical people on their teams were the ones let go.

And yet there has been no operational impact at Google since the layoffs...so maybe they weren't so critical after all?

Hah - you never know! Maybe they failed to innovate a way to cram another above the fold ad onto the SERP page due to laying off too many of their “best” people

Re: Epic Games is laying off 16% of its staff

#290

Post by toomuchtodo »

johnvanommen wrote: post #193
toomuchtodo wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's monetary policy tightening (effective rate 0% -> ~5%), not government spending. There is no recession, just normalization (zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP, was an abnormality). Unemployment is close to lowest levels in history because of structural demographics. When money gets more expensive, you must perform, adapt, or die as a business. Cashflow is king, and profits juiced from government stimulus mentione…

This might be the most succinct description of where we're at right now, that I've read all year.

I appreciate the kind words and the opportunity to present my analysis.
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