Earlier quoted context omitted.
Smallpox eradication
That was not a black swan event, that was a concerted effort over two centuries.
The discovery of the vaccine itself
Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
281–290 of 1001 posts
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#282Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Nuclear weapons. There hasn’t been a full scale war between major powers since.
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Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
All of these are fantasy. 0. LK99 is so obviously a fraud. They've been dicking around with this substance for 24 years. 1. some diseases will be possible to fix, like metabolic problems, but where structures are already formed in an adult organism this will be impossible. Like Autism. Go ahead, change every chromosome in every cell, the malformed brain structures will remain. 2. Sure there will be ignition, but the…
0 write your proof then, rise to unending fame.
If contemporary scientists cared about proving negatives, let alone assigning prestige to the task, then there wouldn’t be a replication crisis.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nuclear weapons. There hasn’t been a full scale war between major powers since.
As long as the people with the weapons act rationally. Which might be an anomaly.
The problem with game theory is that the actors do act rationally, and the most rational scenario is still the doomsday genocide: first strike, with a submarine counterstrike.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#285This is the first time in years where I physically have goosebumps the more this seems to be verified. In a good way.
The potential changes this can introduce is equivalent to when Faraday, Volte, and all the other 17th/18th century scientists started figuring out how electricity works. They had no idea how much it would change every aspect of life in the century to come after them.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Auctions, sanitary towels, retirement, banking, disposable razor, sewing machine, canned food, interchangeable parts, antibiotics, solar cells, postage stamp, light bulb, pencil, air conditioning, insurance, dwarf wheat, spreadsheet, cold chain, double entry book-keeping, S-bend, infant formula, clocks, public key cryptography, passports, batteries, printing press, video games, GPS, contraceptive pill, shipping conta…
I’ll add some more:
Language, standards, the internet, agriculture, glass, sunscreen, resilient rice, sterilization, human flight, spontaneous development of sentient life in the universe…
When you think about it all, you start to appreciate how miraculous things actually are.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
1) doesn't make a whole lot of sense. A perfect understanding of something doesn't mean you can fix anything wrong with it. 3) has already happened. The AI chat bots aren't very smart, but they're clearly capable of some degree of basic reasoning.
There's a wonderful paper on 1) from a few years ago: https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/jo... >Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor? >We show that the [neuroscience experimental] approaches reveal interesting structure in the data but do not meaningfully describe the hierarchy of information processing in the microprocessor. This suggests current analytic approaches in neuroscien…
Which was inspired by this, "Could a Biologist Fix a Radio?"
https://www.cell.com/cancer-cell/pdf/S1535-6108(02)00133-2.p...
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#288Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you can't answer the question then you won't ever understand how to measure zero resistance.
Would one method (assuming a pure sample) be to pass a high current through it and measure if it heats up? I know nothing about this, but that would be my first guess.
It will heat up, as the contact points & probes will have resistance, not sure if there are good ways to correct for that.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Nuclear weapons. There hasn’t been a full scale war between major powers since.
Entirely ruined by the reality that those having them are not bombed to ground by conventional weapons when they attack somewhere.
So I would argue they are either neutral or massive negative.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Cure for aging 2. AGI exists and ends up being somehow, unexpectedly easy to control 3. Russia / China / North Korea eventually become democratic Some of the “good” black swans at the top of my mind…
Democracy is a diversion technique honestly. “Rulers” are always a few people/corps and the fate of the people depends on them.
Honestly there's a big difference in the way people live in North Korea and Switzerland.