Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humans are confidently wrong about all kinds of things all the time. We don't call it hallucination other than for very specific, limited subsets. We call each other names over it, call it mistakes, stupidity, or lies. In fact, we structure large parts of society around it (the presence of multiple contradictory world religions means the majority of the worlds population goes through life being confidently wrong). It…
humans are constantly reinforced from childhood that making confident claims about things we don't actually know well is often going to have negative consequences If only that were universally true!
Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
281–290 of 388 posts
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#282Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humans "hallucinate" in the AI sense (it's an awful word that obscures how often we do it) all the time too. You'll find people confidently make claims not supported by data or indeed by any of their own data all the time, where when you poke around in their justifications you'll find they have none. The key difference appears a combination of two factors: We appear to be more likely to have learnt which subjects we'…
Humans have a way to verify reality. Their senses + scientific method Saying “most humans make dumb statements” is not a defense to build a machine that makes dumb statements imo
If we made a ChatGPT that has some “senses” it can use to verify its perceptions, and it does as well with this as humans generally do, I’m sure we’ll get interesting results but I’m not sure we’ll be any closer to solving the problem.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, that’s right. AGI ≠ a lot of AI. They are fundamentally different things. The first computer was designed in 1837, long before a computer was ever built. We know how fusion reactions work, now we’re tweaking the engineering to harness it in a reactor. We don’t know how human intelligence works. We don’t have designs or even a philosophy for AGI. Yet, the prevailing view is that our greatest invention will just s…
your hypothesis is that there is a qualitatively different property to agi than whatever we have now. Most people here are just saying "if chatgpt is smarter that would be agi". Going by the differences between gpt3.5 and gpt4 is really interesting. It is better able to reason in basically any problem I throw at it. Personally I think that a hypothetical system that is able to generate a sufficiently good response fo…
In many ways, AGI and AI are opposites. We don’t actually “train” humans. We present them information. And a human can choose to ingest that information or - just as importantly - choose not to.
A 3yo learns English not through being force fed, but through their own curiosity and motivation to learn.
GPT and the like are proving to be amazing tools. The compute model of probabilistic algorithms (“plain” AI) is going to transform industries.
But the more sophisticated these tools get, the further from AGI they will become.
When we create AGI, it will begin with a blank slate, not the whole of human knowledge. It will study some topics deeply and be uninterested in others. It might draw its own conclusions instead of just taking the conclusions presented to it. Or it may decide not to study at all, preferring to instead become a hermit.
David Deutsch is the most compelling on this topic: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5nGOkhcJ7VszXm2WVgxKyC?si=8...
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humans are confidently wrong about all kinds of things all the time. We don't call it hallucination other than for very specific, limited subsets. We call each other names over it, call it mistakes, stupidity, or lies. In fact, we structure large parts of society around it (the presence of multiple contradictory world religions means the majority of the worlds population goes through life being confidently wrong). It…
I think that the ChatGPT model (at least chatgpt-3.5-turbo) has gotten impressively better at this. - In my most recent tests, it will tell you when the data you've provided doesn't match the task (instead of inventing an answer out of thin air). - It will also add (unprompted) comments/notes before or after the result to disclaim a plausible reason why certain choices have been made or the answer isn't complete. You…
With respect to the competing draws here, I'm not sure they necessarily compete that much. E.g. being able to ask it to speculate but explain justifications or being able to provide a best guess or being able to ask it to just be as creative as it wants, would be sufficient. Alternatively one that knows how to embed indication of what it knows to be true vs. what is speculation or pure fiction. Of course we can "just" also train different models with different levels of / types of reinforced limits. Having both a "anything goes" model and a constrained version that knows what it does know might both be useful for different things.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#285Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree with you. > Essentially all we've done is pushed the basic model proposed by linear regression to it's absolutely limits No, we haven't pushed linear regression to its limits. If it was only linear regression, it wouldn't work. Neural networks need a non-linearity to model complex things. The beauty is that given an infinite series of nonlinearities, one can model any mathematical function. In practice we…
>I think ChatGPT is good evidence of this. What evidence do we have that this isn't how intelligence works? People don't need the gigantic amount of input data that ChatGPT needs to learn. However I'm not sure what exactly "this" is you and GP are referring to, and it may be possible to improve existing ideas so that it works with less input data.
The common perception has been that children aren't exposed to enough data to arrive at their grammatical language skills, implying there's some proto language built in. Comparative analysis of languages has looked for what aspects are truly universal but there's actually not a lot of concrete true universals to ascribe to our genetic innate language.
But if it is genetic that doesn't really mean it's fundamentally different than ChatGPT, it just took a different and drastically longer training period and then transfer learning when children learn their mother tongue.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
your hypothesis is that there is a qualitatively different property to agi than whatever we have now. Most people here are just saying "if chatgpt is smarter that would be agi". Going by the differences between gpt3.5 and gpt4 is really interesting. It is better able to reason in basically any problem I throw at it. Personally I think that a hypothetical system that is able to generate a sufficiently good response fo…
That’s right. In many ways, AGI and AI are opposites. We don’t actually “train” humans. We present them information. And a human can choose to ingest that information or - just as importantly - choose not to. A 3yo learns English not through being force fed, but through their own curiosity and motivation to learn. GPT and the like are proving to be amazing tools. The compute model of probabilistic algorithms (“plain”…
I think some people explitly dont want AGI to simulate emotion or self-defined goals because that would be little more than an artistic curiousity. Why intentionally make a tool less useful? Less willing to do the things you want it to do? Perhaps you hold some belief that simulating such things is necessary for some goal you have in mind, but personally I don't think that's true, for literally any goal
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hallucinations are an indication that something is missing, surely? Does chatGPT need a way to verify reality for itself to become truly intelligent ?
Just the other day, my friend asked me if I knew what this bug she took a picture of was. I replied it looked like a house centipede, and it was indeed one. Two things: 1) My confidence was around 80%, without any sense of absolute certainty. 2) I had no idea why I knew that, and where did I originally learned about what a house centipede looks like.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#288I'm confused about what the goal of "AI" is anymore. Does anyone else feel similar? Researches seem fixated to create something like "a really smart person or intellectual slave", LLMs make it seem like we're close to that I guess? Is there not a whole lot more usefulness in solving actual problems with "AI" without the potential risks and baggage of creating, I don't know, is it super capable idiot savant? The appro…
I think you might be misconstruing his definition of 'enlightenment'. In this instance I believe he is referring to humanity having the time and freedom for the pursuit of knowledge and intellectual reasoning. There are a number of instances in fictional literature were the authors discuss worlds in which civilization has achieved a state of enlightenment and dedicate their lives exclusively to science, philosophy and the arts (Olaf Stapleton's First and Last Men, and Starmaker provide several)
>but for what now? Just intellectual curiosity ?
The purpose is out of exercise to understand it. But again, if we might produce an AGI which is capable of digesting massive amounts of knowledge, but with the ability to reason we might be able to achieve certain goals like fusion energy sooner than expected. IMO solving the energy problem in itself is worth the risk as our uncontrolled use of fossil fuels is an existential threat to life on this planet, not to mention it would rebalance the distribution on wealth and power around the world.
As for Hinton, I think you are spot on with why he reacted this way. However, I facepalm every time the 'killer robots' example comes up because it is the worst example of the threats these things pose compared the following:
- AI being used to manipulate public opinion on a massive scale creating a new age of demagoguery.
- AI being used to fabricate different realities within an information sphere by generating text, imagery and audio/video media supporting a certain set of narratives. Essentially a type of super propaganda.
- AI being granted trust to by humans to perform certain functions which it is not capable of, because humans are too ignorant to subject it to proper scrutiny.
- AI being used to manipulate either markets, financial institutions or economies at a massive scale, dramatically shifting the balance of power around the world.
Essentially, the general public's concept of warfare needs to be broadened to consider non-kinetic conflict. Warfare is effectively a pursuit in the change of policy in other nations(or groups) by many different means. The last resort of these methods is inevitably a kinetic engagement, where all other approaches have failed to achieve the desired result.
Altering this viewpoint allows us to reassess what we consider to be weapons rather than tools, and gives us a better idea of where we should expect these threats to emerge first.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#289Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks, forgot where the analogy came from and should have taken the time to source it.
First you call it a metaphor, now you call it an analogy. Which are you using it as? An analogy highlights similarities, a metaphor is saying a bird is a plane. Is a nuclear power station a coal-fired power station? Both produce electricity. Is an EV an ICE? Both can get you from point A to point B. A statistical model is not the same as a complex neural network, and its capabilities are not comparable. I don't think…
That is precisely the point I am making. OP says we are a long way from achieving intelligence because we don't understand many of the components of human intelligence.
We don't need to believe that artificial intelligence will arise from similar properties as human intelligence. In much the same way aeroplanes don't fly using the same mechanics as reached via evolution.
Not sure what you mean when you say a statistical model is not a neural net. If we are talking LLMs, they are neural nets.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
What do you mean exactly "besides math/logic"? Because logic underpins everything we think. For example it cannot identify musical chords because despite (I presume) ample training material including explanations of how exactly this works, it cannot reasonable represent this as an abstract rigorous rule, as humans do. So I ask what is C E G and it tells me C major correctly, as it presumably appears many times throug…
Sure. Let’s take quantum theory. There are lots of concepts that are based in math but can be reasoned about non-mathematically. The reason that chatGPT can write quantum computer programs to in any domain (despite the lack of existing programs!) is because it can deal with the concepts of quantum computing and the concepts in a domain (eg, predicting housing prices) and align them. Very little of human reasoning is…
Can you be more specific? I literally don't know what you mean. What can you say about quantum mechanics that is not mathematical or logical in nature? Barring metaphysical issues of interpretation, which I assume is not what you mean.