Bank Failures Visualized • Hacker News Board

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#281

Post by reylas » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:04 PM UTC

abeppu wrote: post #275

Mike Bostock knows far more about data visualization than I do so I assume there are good reasons for choosing this presentation. But it strikes me as hard to think about, so I must ask: when is stacked+packed circles a good choice? The drawbacks to me seem to be: - At any given point on the x-axis, the associated height of the pile is partly taken up by circles but is partly space lost to circle packing. This propor…

The way I understand the graph is that is not the "number" of circles, but the area (money) that they consume. So those three bank failures are taking up the same space as all those other failures from 2008.

It is the total volume of money involved vs the count. The height of both stacks show just how much damage three did vs all the others in the left hand stack.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#282

Post by miclill » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:06 PM UTC

kypro wrote: post #79

Would be slightly more insightful if it was inflation adjusted. The circles on the right should be ~30% smaller.

"More insightful" is too gentle. At best the chart is misleading. But the _mistake_ to not adjust money for inflation is very common unfortunately...

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#283

Post by rout39574 » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:08 PM UTC

abeppu wrote: post #275

Mike Bostock knows far more about data visualization than I do so I assume there are good reasons for choosing this presentation. But it strikes me as hard to think about, so I must ask: when is stacked+packed circles a good choice? The drawbacks to me seem to be: - At any given point on the x-axis, the associated height of the pile is partly taken up by circles but is partly space lost to circle packing. This propor…

My read of it was that the circles are centered on the date of the failure, and the stacking was some flavor of minimum height. The result is you get an approximation of "area under the curve" of bank value that has failed, while retaining a sense of whether a particular peak was a few large actors, or a mound of tiny. I find that clear distinction valuable.

The nice thing about Mike having posted the code is that, if you think there's a better way to portray it, the canvas is spread out before you. :)

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#284

Post by sam_goody » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:14 PM UTC

thedufer wrote: post #265

sam_goody wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have time to research now, but there were some well detailed breakdowns of the large payments when the bailout happened. The first relevant link in DDG is a statement by the Chairman of the FDIC. He claims that the top ten accounts held more than 13.3B between them, which is more than 10% of the total of all deposits in the bank, and more than half of the $20B that the government is expected to payout in tota…

I think that's a misinterpretation of the data. Based on reports, SVB had around 130B of deposits when it was taken into receivership. Something like 90% of that was uninsured, so around 115B of uninsured deposits. The 20B hole means that without FDIC backing the uninsured deposits, they still could have paid out over 80 cents on the dollar. So if the top ten accounts had about 13.3B of deposits, they only received l…

Accepted, and thank you for the clarification.

At the time of the collapse there were definitely articles making that claim, with analysis and numbers, and I still assume it to be correct.

When I saw this, I was surprised, it seemed too clean and straightforward. Will have to look for the original sources.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#285

Post by dimitrios1 » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:21 PM UTC

cde-v wrote: post #91

dimitrios1 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And charge poor people $30 every time they dip under $0 even by a penny. The list of large corporate banks that charge NSF fees and overdrafts is vanishingly small. OTOH, I know of plenty of credit unions that still do both.

> The list of large corporate banks that charge NSF fees and overdrafts is vanishingly small. True for NSF fees, absolutely false for overdraft fees. https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_overdraft...

I would need to see 2022 as well. Many banks announced changes middle of 2021 and 2022.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#286

Post by lottin » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:21 PM UTC

yieldcrv wrote: post #159

lottin wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is any of this partially thanks to the blockchain?

because the clawbacks are easier to track through multiple hops, even when the initial recipient had already done other things with the funds

What do you mean clawbacks? Blockchain transactions are irreversible, right?

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#287

Post by aftbit » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:40 PM UTC

seviu wrote: post #229

RC_ITR wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are 100's of other examples of quite outrageous FTX-style crime. Woah woah woah. FTX (in the most generous telling) didn’t even have its own bank account. Let’s not conflate that with not proactively reaching out to snitch on a customer (as if they are some regulatory agency).

Add to the mix that despite all its flaws (which are many) crypto is way more transparent than a classical financial institution due to the fact that one can track all movements. Even for entities like FTX, we can guess what their wallets at and how many funds they hold. Part of the FTX debacle was due to depositors figuring out that it didn’t have enough money to cover their debts. Unfortunately for USD backed curre…

Alas, the biggest scams in crypto are more opaque than that. How many dollars does Tether hold, and in what forms? Where is all of this "commercial paper"? The biggest crypto falls are still to come.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#288

Post by hattmall » Wed, May 03, 2023, 3:42 PM UTC

Why so many in Georgia? Roughly 25% of all bank failures were in a state with less than 3% of population? Subprime lending?

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#289

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft » Wed, May 03, 2023, 4:04 PM UTC

tpxl wrote: post #227

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sort of inflation would take it from 2700 to 37,000 since 1987? How close to the CPI is that, exactly? It seems a little off.

> What sort of inflation would take it from 2700 to 37,000 since 1987? 7.5%. Doesn't seem that unbelievable.

Well, it doesn't seem bizarrely implausible. It has spiked even higher than that in my lifetime (not even counting recently).

The trouble is that I've been told that it was far lower. By official government sources.

It would be interesting to include the DJIA into CPI though. I bet some people would lose their shit over that.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#290

Post by everybodyknows » Wed, May 03, 2023, 4:40 PM UTC

WillAdams wrote: post #258

I only saw a couple of entries which might have been credit unions --- were they intentionally excluded? Or are they that much less likely to fail?

Excellent point. To Joe Consumer, bank vs credit union accounts are ready alternatives. Where might one find data on failures? A quick scan of this site offered no clues.

https://ncua.gov/

Insurance blurb from NCUA:

https://ncua.gov/files/publications/guides-manuals/NCUAHowYo...

They do have access to a high-margin business, "temporaily":

https://ncua.gov/regulation-supervision/letters-credit-union...

Lending at up to 18% is permitted.