Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I wish GPT4 had never happened

chaudhry.notion.site

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 1001 posts

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#281

Post by t43562 »

nirvdrum wrote: post #268
logicalmonster wrote: post #138

1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new jobs…

> 2) Chaudry ignores that you need a human in the loop to check an AI's work. You don't know that an AI's answer is always right. Even if it's perfect in 99% of cases, the answer could be jaw-droppingly destructive in that 1% of cases and make errors that even the dumbest human wouldn't make. Being grossly wrong even a small percentage of the time is far worse than a human making minor errors sometimes, and being slo…

not after a few lawsuits.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#282

Post by 908B64B197 »

pixl97 wrote: post #178
surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

My friends in the gaming industry have the complains they can't get new junior and associate members on their team for development. Instead companies want to throw more tooling at them to make the senior developers more productive. With how bad companies are at providing on the job training now, what does the future look like with 100x developers versus newbies that can't talk to AI?

The gaming industry is probably the worse place to look at.

It's constantly trying to farm work abroad and looks at every possible way to cut costs. And it's dominated by young, naïve devs and artists who don't understand the market and are "passionate" about the product.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#283

Post by pydry »

mort96 wrote: post #249
pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? The extra value has gone to enrich the oligarchs rather than to the people. Maybe that should change.

How do you deprive an oligarch of their ill gotten wealth without violence?

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#285

Post by pythonaut_16 »

nemothekid wrote: post #223
satvikpendem wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. You are working the same number of hours as before (40 ish) because companies are producing 10x as much goods in the same amount of time. If they produced only the same amount, ie 1x, you'd have your 2 hour work day (or more likely be out of a job). It is because companies are producing more stuff that you have a job…

> You are complaining about the very thing you benefit from now. It's dubious that anyone except the most wealthy benefits from this. Even though productivity has exploded, wages hasn't followed and the rewards of productivity has gone to a small few. I don't know how anyone can look at wealth inequality today and think most people should be "grateful". It's more likely to me that rest of America will start to look l…

I really hate how the wealthy benefit from my washer, dryer, dishwasher, Internet, air conditioning, access to a huge variety of food... When will the wealthy start passing the benefits of progress on to the rest of us?

We've got big problems in our economy and income inequality is certainly one of them, but it's asinine to pretend that most individuals in society have not benefitted from technological progress.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#286

Post by ThorsBane »

GPT-4 will accelerate the enjoyable aspects of every job and reduce the tedious aspects. For everyone. No form of labor is excluded. GPT-4 can be hooked up to Boston Dynamics hardware to create the robots from iRobot. Every form of labor can now be automated. What this means is we have achieved universal basic income where we can now economically justify massive benefits for every citizen on the basis of completely automating everything including necessary resource extraction, refinement, and recycling. This can also now happen off-planet. We can even now build all of our computing and manufacturing needs off-planet if we want the pollution to just be space noise.

All of this can happen with what we now have, without compromising the social stability and social cohesion of the American Melting Pot.

Diversity really is our strength - pick a Synagogue, pick a Church, pick a Mosque, pick a Temple, pick a Community Center you like. Join that Community so that work and salaries aren't your lifeblood. Learn mathematics for the sake of enjoying and understanding mathematics. Learn science for the enjoyment of it. Worship God for the enjoyment of it. Stretch the limits of apologetics and philosophy for more innovation there if you are an agnostic instead. GPT-4 will not be able to generate innovative new ideas, but it can definitely surface the best information and also automate many things. The innovation in thinking will still need to come from humans, and human-AI partnerships will always be necessary like in The Matrix.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#287

Post by rootusrootus »

I've been using ChatGPT a lot. I'm no longer feeling much anxiety over the future of software engineering. GPT is a great tool. Still just a tool. It helps remind me how to do things I do rarely. To get code that exactly fits my requirements, I'd have to get so specific that I might as well just write the silly code myself. But for shell scripts, SQL, stuff like that, it's pretty decent.

Yesterday I asked it to give me a postgres SQL query to do something I don't often do, but I had a pretty good idea of what it would be. It confidently lied. I replied with "that is plausible but incorrect, I think you need to use X function instead" and it actually said "You're right, I'm sorry, that is the correct way to do X, here is an example". I laughed pretty hard at the casual apology followed instantly by the actually correct result. I'm in no danger of anthropomorphizing an LLM, but still.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#288

Post by croes »

satvikpendem wrote: post #202
pavel_lishin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? > Though some people in some companies might be laid…

> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. You are working the same number of hours as before (40 ish) because companies are producing 10x as much goods in the same amount of time. If they produced only the same amount, ie 1x, you'd have your 2 hour work day (or more likely be out of a job). It is because companies are producing more stuff that you have a job…

So how come that many people can't afford a house but could 30 years ago?

Machines made blue collar work near worthless, except for some crafts.

And things like ChatGPT can lower the worth of white collar jobs.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#289

Post by nashashmi »

There is a big elephant in the room that people are ignoring. AI is coming in disrupting job flow processes (everyone sees this) And the new graduates are not equipped to enhance their work with AI (independently). The new graduates have already graduated through a curriculum based on self analysis and thought. AI will test their skills and make them obsolete. They are most at risk of structural unemployment. The advent of the Internet did the same for those who graduated right before 2000. These graduates did not have skills needed to work with the Internet. And often found themselves going back to school to learn a new trade.

On the other hand, there are those who graduated and have 2 yrs experience on their side have built a job independence where they can try new things like AI and modify their work process. They are well positioned.

The other thing people do not realize is though jobs will become quicker, quantity of jobs will be few for limited time. So imagine somebody who is testing chemicals that people up the supply chain are supplying. Now imagine that AI enhanced the testing of chemicals and sped the process, it has yet to sped up the supply. Give it a couple of years and industry will add more tests instead of reducing the amount of people who are testing. (there are no such thing as cost savings).

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#290

Post by ResearchCode »

eropple wrote: post #232
ResearchCode wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They seem less dispensable than any other white collar professionals if we're talking about AI taking jobs.

"Less" isn't "not".

It can happen. I'm thinking it's 20 years out and not happening tomorrow, but I'm all for UBI and saving ambitiously.
Post reply on HN