Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe? Depends on the severity of the regression, how much it cost, whether there was negligence or carelessness involved etc. And arguably you'd first fire the person who set up a process that allows regressions to be pushed to prod so easily. Underperformance is not a single mistake. It's a pattern of behaviors that compound.
A CEO looking at the economic climate of 2020-2021 and thinking they needed to hire to support the growth in demand for their products is not being negligent, they simply lacked the crystal ball that would have told them the Fed was going to slam the brakes on the economy last year. Even the Fed said they wouldn't be doing that. In light of what's happened, companies need to get leaner to survive. Now if these CEOs d…
Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
281–290 of 329 posts
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#282Oh my sweet summer child.... As someone who lived through the .COM crash and implosion and then 2008, any company with "strong cash reserves" and "trajectory to profitability" is not making more money than they are spending. They are, to use the SV term - losing runway. This is catastrophic because it's infeasible to raise money right now to extend the runway. If the plane is not airborne (making significantly more m…
Someone watches GOT ;)
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
That seems absurd. I've worked at big companies. They sometimes have staff, often _lots_ of staff, like whole orgs, that are a net drain on the company. What's the alternative in that situation? Granted, getting into that situation was probably "executives making stupid mistakes" -- seems like it usually is -- and granted, they're probably not saying "we have to do these layoffs because I was an idiot last year", and…
> That seems absurd. I've worked at big companies. They sometimes have staff, often _lots_ of staff, like whole orgs, that are a net drain on the company. What's the alternative in that situation? Well, the evidence is that mass layoffs aren't having the result of being very positive for companies that engage in them. Given that what you say also feels true, in my experience, an explanation immediately suggests itsel…
All humans are not just FutureRedundantWetwareMeatsacks that the all knowing bean counters can move around on a board. In reality business is about relationship/small detail institutional knowledge silo'd in individuals/humans proactively getting done what needs doing, many details that get poorly caught by tribal documentation systems.
If your people are truly cogs you don't have a business, you have a franchise, and anyone else can do the cookie cutter things your business is doing, and most likely better/cheaper/flashier. But for some reason HK and all these companies doing layoffs either don't understand that, or they WANT to turn their company into a generic franchise where everyone is interchangeable and lose the flexibility/capability/competency that being a business of interconnected humans gives.
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#284This is highly personal for me since I was part of the early Confluent growth story, having seen the company grow from about 150 folks to 1600+ headcount. I was amazed to see the quality of people who joined the company as each person was highly skilled, motivated and talented in their trades across all the functions of the organization.
I treasured the time the team spent at the happy hour every friday and no pay thursday lunch in Palo Alto, as we bonded and built friendships for life.
I understand that this is a difficult time for everyone involved, and I want to express my deepest compassion for those who have been affected by the layoffs, including everyone in the technology sector as a whole. Losing a job can be a traumatic experience, and my heart goes out to all of those who are facing this challenge.
I hope that you can find new opportunities quickly and that this difficult period in your life is as short as possible. Please know that you are in my thoughts and that I wish you all the best during this difficult time.
If you need to speak to someone about how to navigate this cycle, feel free to hit me up. I want to chat with everyone.
I have seen market cycles both good times and bad times. I still remember back in the day when my graduation ceremony coincided with the 2008 market crash. As a new graduate, it felt like the end of the world, however once I refocused my energies to dissect the situation, I found an abundance of opportunities in the downcycle. I realized there is an opportunity in every change and that each opportunity is different and unique in perspective.
I also wanted to add that we need to capture this energy, across the technology sector in general, to reconnect, chat, share ideas and be there for each other, be part of this giant pack, be part of the confluent mafia, that everyone who is still wearing the golden handcuff will be one day regretful. I hope you do realize that this is a pivotal moment that we get to be a part of, that is to re-evaluate our strenghts and re-align expectations to explore new opportunities and position ourselves for the next stage of growth story.
As per the reports, Venture capitalists are burdened with hundreds of billions of dollars that they can't invest in later-stage companies due to economic conditions. There has probably literally never been a better time in history to work on solving real-world problems.
The acceleration of these highly competent people hitting the labor market at the same time is going to create an burst of innovation. This will create an opportunity that will certainly be a prominent pillar in the next economic recovery.
For example, here is a recent post on what others who have left Confluent have been upto: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6953693...
I know some of us got more severance than others, and I know some of us are in more delicate circumstances than others, but let's take a minute to consider the possibilities with each other and at least have a little fun thinking out of the box about what the future could bring.
I hope the following verse from Bhagvad Gita will bring peace and strength to you in the current situation: "The friction between our desire for the predictable and the mutability of life makes us feel a bit lost. Rather than rail against change, which the Gita says is inherent in all things, the key is to broaden our view by becoming less self-focused, less ruled by our ego. Change the inputs and you change the story. That shift occurs when we deepen our level of consciousness. The only place of unchanging truth, says the Gita, is internal, where we come into alignment with the Self."
Use all your power to free the senses from attachment and aversion alike, and live in the full wisdom of the Self. —Bhagavad Gita, 2.68
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#285We're well into the cargo cult layoffs. CEOs need to look good to their bosses and your job is a sacrafice they are willing to make. I'm sure there are some who will make their decisions based on real data and analysis - but they'll make thier decisions independently of other firms actions. Seeing all this clustered behavior suggests little analysis is really being done here.
Especially given the strong economic numbers that just came out, yeah I don't buy the "bad macro climate" argument anymore. It's really plain as day: these CEOs make some cuts of 5-15%, their stock price goes up. This is a pattern we'll likely continue to see through this year. Honestly, the tech industry was due for some churn from an employer perspective, and all this talent circulating is going to up the competiti…
The US Federal Reserve literally says they are committed to bringing the US to a recession to curb inflation (if it is what it takes to do so). So while strong economic numbers are a "good thing", it just means the current numbers will keep getting worse until it's a recession. (Or the Fed will change course. Who knows.)
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
A Google Monopoly that needs to be broken up and opened to the public (mainly, xooglers).
lol right. I want to rollover my Mcmillen score just like a 401k
I'm unfamiliar with this term and a quick search didn't produce any meaningful results.
What is it?
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#287to soften the blow?
because they're speaking to investors, often institutional for whom it's more useful to know the rates and who don't particularly care about the lives of the employees joining the job-seekers?
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#288Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Layoffs are especially hard on the performance of companies with a high reliance on R&D, low capital intensity, and high growth. Start ups are 2 out of 3. The thesis is that with layoffs the outcome is worse than without. So we can make all kinds of rhetorical debates, but the data seems to suggest for some causal reason companies that do layoff do worse off in the subsequent years.
Startups don't survive to later years in limited runways circumstances unless they decrease their spend. There is a survivorship bias point of view - but the critical point is that startups are not low capital intensity.
I'm uncertain if the data has a survivorship bias or not (did not review the actual academic papers). Your and I's conjecture needn't assume it.
None the less we're not talking about seed/Series A companies here. We're talking about late stage and large publics w/ 100s Millions to Billions of cash.
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#289I'm more increasingly convinced that ceo are capitalizing on this occasion to lay off people they deem undesirable.
Re: Tell HN: Confluent laying off 8% of staff
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
Layoffs are rational and are common in downward cycles. What downward cycle? All I'm hearing is panic and hand-wringing about the economy, but I don't see what the problem is. We had a "recession" in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. GDP dropped from 20,006 to a low of 19,895, then it went right back to its previous growth path. Inflation is high, but it's dropping. It maxed out at 9.1% in June of 2022. Now it's down to 6.5% and ex…
These companies are using forward-looking metrics to make these types of decisions, it really isn't follow-the-leader. I don't have access to the data, but it's quite possible with interest rates rising, high inflation, and tightening monetary policy that they are seeing slowing growth/sales. Companies want to get out ahead of that, especially with the massive (and frankly absurd) hiring that these companies did over…
Such as? This seems super hand-wavy.
The pandemic already happened. Inflation peaked last summer, after the Fed responded. The supply chain crunch is resolved or resolving.
They had the bad news months or years ago. What are these forward-looking metrics that are worse than what we already experienced in the last few years, and why isn't the entire market panicking over them?