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US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

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Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#281
post #9

Every breakthroughs starts from government (people) funded initiatives, congrats to everyone involved, a future without the need to generate selfish profit is at reach!

Every breakthrough starts from government funded initiatives? Wilbur and Orville Wright disagree.

I don't think they do, since they started with research done by the Smithsonian Institution.

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#282
post #108

I tried to do some back-of-the-envelope calculations on what this means in regards to energy costs being saved, because I couldn't find a direct source (maybe GPT could help actually). Anyway, based on ITER [1] to equate the energy production of a 1000MW coal plant you would need 2.7t of coal for that plant or 250kg of deuterium and tritium for the fusion reactor (split equally). Based on [2] deuetrium costs about ~$…

[0] provides economic analysis for this type of power plant. They conclude it would not be unreasonable to get levelized cost of energy could get as low as $25/MWh. For this one really needs a high gain of 1000, although gains of 400 are a bit more reasonable, and a gain of around 100 may be economically competitive in some cases. While the gain NIF achieved was about 1.5, there is good reason to expect it can be sca…

I think capital costs & construction times are going to be extremely important.

I think the biggest reason nuclear energy stopped being built is it takes too long to get political wins.

NuScale and other SMNRs might be able to help with that.

However, the capital costs & construction time for Fusion Energy should theoretically be much lower than nuclear reactors.

But are we too far away from it being a reality that anyone is predicting how much?

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be a valid argument if the only alternative to fusion was petroleum.

I'm confused by this. Does the US have the productive forces and resources to replace petrolium with solar panels (and the required energy storage)? Does it have the nuclear fuel to replace petrolium with fission reactors? What alternatives to petrolium does the US have that it does not rely on others for?

What scheme do you imagine that fusion could be used to replace petroleum that would not also work when powered by solar? Production of synfuels using hydrogen, for example, would also deal with solar's intermittency, leaving the energy sources to compete on the basis of levelized cost. The levelized cost of solar has become quite low, and it's very difficult to see how any fusion scheme, and DT fusion in particular, will ever compete.

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s only because they’re using old school flash pumped lasers, not the new solid state lasers you’d use today if you wanted to make a power plant demo.

It just seems a little strange to take credit for a milestone when the milestone everyone cares about is yet to be reached. (More energy out than in.) Good to hear that there's a laser design that might achieve that.

I think the confusion here is at least partially due to most articles obscuring the primary purpose of the NIF. Its not supposed to support commercial energy development, its supposed to support nuclear weapons development under the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, where testing bombs via setting them off is banned.

So the NIF is supposed to give a testbed to study implosion created fusion reactions that produce enough energy to "ignite", that is, propegate the reaction to the rest of a hypothetical bomb. In that case, the amount of energy needed for the infrastructure to produce the initial implosion doesn't matter, what matters is that the energy coming out is more then the actual energy that triggered the reaction, so that the hypothetical bomb would blow up and not fizzle.

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#285

Here's your most exciting paragraph > LLNL’s experiment surpassed the fusion threshold by delivering 2.05 megajoules (MJ) of energy to the target, resulting in 3.15 MJ of fusion energy output, demonstrating for the first time a most fundamental science basis for inertial fusion energy (IFE). Many advanced science and technology developments are still needed to achieve simple, affordable IFE to power homes and busines…

Most of the funding for the Manhattan project went into the industrial infrastructure required to produce plutonium and enriched uranium. It will be time to unleash resources once they have a working fusion reactor design in order to build fusion power plants and the industrial infrastructure required to supply them. Until then they should of course get the resources they need but I don't think throwing money at them…

A uranium-gun bomb has a very simple theoretical basis, but enriching uranium is very expensive (and was even more expensive in the 1940s. Producing enough enriched uranium was the only hard problem in making that bomb; in fact they did not even test the bomb before dropping it on Hiroshima because they were fairly sure it was going to work and wouldn't have enough enriched uranium for a second bomb on the timelines involved.

Plutonium was significantly more easy to produce, but it did require some novel engineering for the implosion lens. They weren't sure it was going to work and did, in fact, test the bomb before dropping it on Nagasaki.

I think the Manhattan project is a great example of where more funds can help; if the funds were more restricted, it's entirely possible they would have gone with the "sure thing" of the uranium bomb instead of spending resources on the less sure plutonium bomb. Trying out multiple ideas in parallel often "wastes" money since if you try ideas in tandem, you will always try the high-percentage ideas first.

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a stupid question but I don't know anything about fusion: How is it possible for X energy to create X+Y energy in output? Doesn't that violate some fundamental law of physics?

If you look at the mass before of their fuel, 1 deuterium atom + 1 tritium atom: 2.01410177811 u + 3.01604928 u = 5.03015105811 u vs the mass of the fusion products of 1 helium atom and 1 neutron: 4.002602 u + 1.008 u = 5.010602 u You'll notice that even though we started with 5 neutrons and 2 protons and ended up with the same number there was some additional binding energy that is unaccounted for in the new configu…

Great comment. But you meant 2 helium atoms and 1 neutron in the second equation, correct?

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about this: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2333346-ignition-confir... Allegedly ignition was achieved a year ago. How is this different?

Quoted post unavailable.

You misspelled ’China’

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be a valid argument if the only alternative to fusion was petroleum.

I'm confused by this. Does the US have the productive forces and resources to replace petrolium with solar panels (and the required energy storage)? Does it have the nuclear fuel to replace petrolium with fission reactors? What alternatives to petrolium does the US have that it does not rely on others for?

Nuclear fuel actually isn't that expensive or rare

Those crazy sci-fi stories from the 30s and 50s where everyone used nuclear power (and it was so cheap they didn't bother to meter it) were all completely accurate from a non-political viewpoint

Re: US Department of Energy: Fusion Ignition Achieved

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Offset the financial viability with the cost of freedom from energy reliance and the need (more like craving) for military interventions

That would be a valid argument if the only alternative to fusion was petroleum.

Exactly. Beyond power generation, humanity still uses petroleum products in their chemical industry. Which is why the shutoff of Russian natural gas hurts Germany much more than other countries, they now have a starving chemical sector.
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