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Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

arstechnica.com

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Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#281

Post by hunterb123 »

aw1621107 wrote: post #270
hunterb123 wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not talking about all bots. I'm talking about mDAU bots. You guys are trying to argue against a point I'm not making. 3rd party estimations range from 10-20% for mDAU bots, Twitter's is 5%. Others were defending it by saying "well the number doesn't have to be accurate legally" or "well Musk should have known it's not really accurate". My counter is that weasel legal wording and logic doesn't give much confidence…

> 3rd party estimations range from 10-20% for mDAU bots Could you provide some sources for these estimates? In particular, I'm curious about the methodology and data sources those third-party sources use.

https://sparktoro.com/blog/sparktoro-followerwonk-joint-twit...

Their methodology is very detailed. Maybe Twitter can post theirs to give more confidence in their 5%.

They used multiple datasets and posted the calculated mDAU for each.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#282

Post by siliconc0w »

kentm wrote: post #196
siliconc0w wrote: post #93

Musk has a chance if he can show that Twitter knowingly mislead the public about the bot %. It sounds like their methodology was indeed pretty weak, arguably deliberately so, and they had people on staff that should've known this would produce poor estimates with a large margin on error.

Their stated methodology isn't weak though. It's pretty good actually,

Was it? TBH I'm a little confused by the downvotes - going by the 100 sample size number @ a 95% confidence level this is a 10 point margin of error. This seems like basic statistics but maybe I'm missing something. I think it's fair to assume that they had people who were taught basic statistics doing these calculations. If these people then say they think the number of bots is 5% without mentioning the margin of error due to their methodology that seems deceptive. I'm not a lawyer but if I was on a jury I could see being persuaded by that.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#283

Post by viraptor »

dragontamer wrote: post #118
jjeaff wrote: post #105

Imagine this whole ordeal playing out on a house that was not listed for sale. The buyer starts harassing the homeowner to sell to them, they say no, so he buys up the mortgage lender and tries to force a sale. His antics are hurting the home's value so you relent to selling and give him an as-is sale contract, which he signs and gives you 24 hrs to respond or he will try to force a sale. All the while, this is of co…

> Who could possibly be on the side of the buyer? Except you can just buy up supporters by gaslighting huge masses of people on Twitter. The house in question. Its so ridiculous. Musk's popularity is largely *BECAUSE* of his Twitter antics. So this "buyer" is basically someone who has come to house-parties / benefited from the house in question for the last decade. And the people arguing against the (current owners)…

> Except you can just buy up supporters by gaslighting huge masses of people on Twitter. The house in question.

What's the path from the masses on twitter and courts which will hear the case? Public opinion doesn't matter here. The case over the contract doesn't even have a jury if I understand correctly.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#284

Post by nemothekid »

codingdave wrote: post #106
jcranmer wrote: post #8

I think Musk's counterclaims are more interesting than Twitter's response. Here's the summary of the five counterclaims: * Twitter committed fraud by lying to the SEC about the mDAU numbers with the intent of inducing Musk to buy Twitter at an inflated price. No, really, this is the allegation (see paragraphs 202-206). * Count 2 is that Twitter committed [Texas fraud statute] by lying when it offered its shares. It's…

I don't honestly believe either side cares about the merits of the legal case - this is all just a very public and showy exercise to negotiate on a new price during a settlement.

>I don't honestly believe either side cares about the merits of the legal case

TWTR is only down 1.6% YTD.

* SNAP is down 80%

* PINS is down 40%

* FB is down 50%

A good chunk of TWTR's current valuation is now being propped up by Elon's buyout offer. Elon could be looking at paying a 100-125% premium on what should be the fair market value for Twitter. Twitter's board should care deeply about getting as much value here as possible.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#285

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

I really can't see any other outcome besides Musk getting his ass handed to him by the Delaware Court of Chancery.

It's always important to look at incentives and motivations when trying to read the tea leaves, and if you look at Delaware's incentives, it's very clear. The whole reason everyone incorporates in Delaware is because they have centuries of handling business cases and have built out a clear set of rules and procedures. That is, businesses go to them more for stability and predictability than anything else.

Musk signed a contract. The BS reasons he is trying to use to back out of it are borderline laughable, and even he knows this, so if anything is just really trying to negotiate better terms. The Delaware Court has every incentive to hold up the established rules of contracts, especially business acquisition contracts, and I'd be pretty shocked if they ruled in favor of Musk on any of his claims.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#286

Post by dane-pgp »

shapefrog wrote: post #266
rossdavidh wrote: post #111

It is possible that this means Musk's spam analysis tool is defective. But, there is another logical possibility...

If Musk can prove that he is a bot, then he wins this lawsuit.

Imagine the gasps in the courtroom when his lawyer walks in and people notice it's actually a prototype of his Optimus android, that somehow managed to pass an online law degree.

Presumably it would then announce that it is an expert in "bot law" and the judge would have no choice but to let it argue Musk's case.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#287

Post by [deleted] »

jawns wrote: post #216
jjeaff wrote: post #105

Imagine this whole ordeal playing out on a house that was not listed for sale. The buyer starts harassing the homeowner to sell to them, they say no, so he buys up the mortgage lender and tries to force a sale. His antics are hurting the home's value so you relent to selling and give him an as-is sale contract, which he signs and gives you 24 hrs to respond or he will try to force a sale. All the while, this is of co…

Imagine it playing out in a romance! "You cad. I never wanted to marry you, but I felt compelled to accept your proposal. But now that you are trying to back out, I am trying to force you to marry me, you idiot." Although in this case, contrary to what it's arguing, Twitter doesn't actually want the marriage to happen. It just wants to keep the $1B engagement ring.

[deleted]

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#288

Post by nemothekid »

saalweachter wrote: post #276
fullshark wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To close the sale and end litigation

So right now the Twitter market cap looks to be about $12 billion dollars lower than the standing offer. I'd naively assume that the price to settle starts at $12 billion dollars, and maybe goes up rather than down -- right now that $42 stock price is at least anchored by the probability of Musk being forced to buy it at $54, so if this ends without a sale, we might expect the stock price to go down.

>So right now the Twitter market cap looks to be about $12 billion dollars lower than the standing offer.

You also have to factor in almost every other social media company is down 50% YTD. If the deal falls through, the market will price TWTR like how they did to facebook which shaves off another ~$15B off their market cap.

So TWTR actually stands to gain ~$27B in value.

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#289

Post by 762236 »

jonathankoren wrote: post #222
762236 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said that I don't feel sorry for Twitter. The law should apply without consideration of political ideology.

What law are you talking about? The first amendment? It doesn't apply to private actors. Not only does it not apply to nongovernmental entities, it SHOULD NOT apply to them. To do so would be government compelled speach.

I'm referring to the law in the context of the purchase offer from Elon, as the person I'm replying to quite clearly stated "securities and contract law".

Re: Twitter says Musk’s spam analysis used tool that called his own account a bot

#290

Post by 762236 »

anothernewdude wrote: post #181
762236 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

So you're an asshole and think others should have to put up with you? I doubt they do in real life, why should it be different online?

I don't understand this comment at all.
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