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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#281

Post by somenameforme »

sacred_numbers wrote: post #242
NeverFade wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real earnings has been in a sharp decline since 2020, now mostly thanks to inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q I don't have the time to link the other stats, but they're not so rosy either, except employment. One good stat and several bad ones is still a recession.

I think that chart shows that things are going back to normal. The reason weekly earnings were at an all time high in q2 of 2020 is because the low wage earners all got laid off because of the pandemic. Now that things are going back to normal, the low wage earners are going back to work at approximately the same real wage (although nominally it's probably a bit higher because of inflation).

That's quite an interesting bias and probably accurate, but one issue you run into here is that wages now are lower than even Q3 2019 which is well before any of this kicked off. And the current trajectory is downward.

So it seems safe to say that real earnings are indeed decreasing, rather than regressing to some past mean.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#282

Post by dmux »

gorwell wrote: post #113
thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

I don't remember the book ever mentioning architecture, a form of history itself.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#283

Post by hedora »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #76
boredumb wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fairly obvious there are political bias in american media and always has been. If your party is hostile to increasing federal government or regulatory capture you will be under a microscope and even sacrifice some credibility to attack you, otherwise you can bumble around, redefine common terms, deflect and mislead and have the entirety of relevant and 'trusted' media sources run cover for you indefinitely.

Quoted post unavailable.

In fairness, the "free from government" party has direct ties to foreign powers that are openly trying to drive us to a civil war.

Taking away bodily autonomy is just a minor skirmish; and the means justify the ends, after all.

Wait till next year when the sodomy and birth control laws start to pass, along with the plans to erect border checkpoints within the US to prevent people from entering and leaving certain states.

Those are enabled by existing supreme court rulings. They've already taken up a case for next year that will allow state legislatures (that are already controlled via gerrymandering, and often elected by a minority) to just ignore vote tallies and appoint whoever they want.

I'm curious to see who the military sides with during the inevitable 2024 coup. Last time, they made it clear they would remove Trump by force if needed. Presumably they're not becoming more loyal to him, given that he's out of office, but it will be dicey when they have to choose between ending democracy in the US or overriding the supreme court and also the house or senate.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#284

Post by alchemist1e9 »

rockemsockem wrote: post #276
engineer_22 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CNN headline: Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of Is this a joke? It's like something you'd overhear at brunch from a group of co-eds

Was that actually the headline before? The title I get is the same minus the "white". I wonder if it's A/B testing.

https://imgur.com/a/yW4IXum

I took a screenshot as I had a hunch it would be changed once enough people saw it.

Edit: shows up without the “White” also for me now:

https://imgur.com/a/84X6RKj

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#285

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

djfobbz wrote: post #274
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your conspiracy theory is laughable, primarily because "the current administration" doesn't have any control over the "official" marking of recessions, which is done by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is a private, independent non-profit.

Why does everything you personally don't agree with have to be a "conspiracy theory"? Seems like a trend these days!

The comment I am replying to is pretty clearly arguing that not calling the current situation a recession is due to the current administration not wanting to call it that:

> Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it.

Whether or not I agree with the assessment of the current administration wanting to "shrug away its failures" has nothing to do with it. The parent comment was clearly arguing the theory, which is total bullshit on its face, that the reason it hasn't been officially designated a recession is because the administration doesn't want it to. The reason this theory is total bullshit is because it's pretty obvious the administration has no control over how the NBER marks recessions.

I think it's fair to designate theories which are total bullshit on their faces as "conspiracy theories".

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#286

Post by sseagull »

safog wrote: post #199
ConceitedCode wrote: post #32

In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…

Has a technical recession ever not resulted in an actual recession as declared by NBER?

Yes. In 1947.

"And it’s rare for there to be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP without a recession. In fact, George Washington University professor Tara Sinclair said the only time on record appears to have been 1947."

From: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/biden-adm...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#287

Post by throw8383833jj »

I don't like GDP as a measure of how well our economy is doing.

We need a whole new measurement. A quality of life index, which measures the real cost of living, not in dollars, but in number of hours required to earn the necessities of life: shelter, food, water, and by extension, the things required to get those: transportation (to and from work, avg distance), certification (aka education), and medical insurance.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#289

Post by jjoonathan »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #211
melling wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The Fed learned under Volcker back in the early 80s that prioritizing killing inflation is the best way to ensure medium and long-term economic and employment growth, even if it causes lower growth or recession in the near-term. That’s likely the playbook Powell is operating under now.

Perhaps, but the Fed chair is a political appointment and the politicians learned a different lesson.

Carter appointed Volcker and put America on chemotherapy. He caught blame for both inflation and de-leveraging withdrawal symptoms. Reagan got to take America off chemotherapy and take credit in the popular conscience for both reduced inflation and the re-leveraging boom. The political lesson: putting America on chemotherapy is important but politically somewhere between "thankless" and "suicidal."

When Powell was confirmed, it was with this context in mind. Politicians were thinking "do I want to be the next Carter"? I am worried that they only confirmed Powell because they thought he would not be the next Volcker. Of course, now that he has been confirmed for the next 4 years, he has some freedom to diverge from expectations. We'll see.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#290

Post by systemvoltage »

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

Wait until you hear about ESG which governs some trillions of dollars of assets. ESG is a way for politicians/elites to force ideology on the public without having to go through the electoral process and gaining public support. This power is exercised through the proxy of corporations. It is anything but democratic. It is totalitarian/authoritarian.

Mastercard is already experimenting with CO2 emissions based spending habits: https://www.mastercard.us/en-us/vision/corp-responsibility/p...

I am the last one to believe in these types of things but it is getting to a point where I feel like we're being boiled like a frog.

Climate/ESG initiatives have lost respect in my eyes, I'd like to support sensible things but this is how we'll get totalitarianism on our hands. Then there is the whole WEF agenda.

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