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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

spiegel.de

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#281

Post by slaw »

nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

So you pay 700€/year for electricity and twenty times more for rent. I think energy is still inexpensive compared to rent prices.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#282

Post by ceejayoz »

danans wrote: post #270
skrause wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heat pumps are not an alternative in the next few years because there are not enough available on the market. I know someone who wanted to buy one for his house in Germany and the waiting list is more than 1-2 years right now.

In the US, you can get one shipped to you in 1-2 days right now: https://iwae.com/shop/4-to-5-ton-18-seer-variable-speed-mrco... Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse. Why can't they build them?

> In the US, you can get one shipped to you in 1-2 days right now:

Sure. Can you get millions, though?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#283

Post by baisq »

excieve wrote: post #245
baisq wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Empathy is what distinguishes us from being just angry monkeys. But then, there are of course very selfish goals like long-term survival and freedom to live as you like outside of yet another authoritarian prison of nations. Which would be less likely for at least a significant part of Europe should most not care now.

Practically nobody had empathy when the West bombed the Middle East for decades. I guess we all are angry monkeys. ;)

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#284

Post by _ph_ »

rmbyrro wrote: post #223
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

I remember Trump saying that "Germany is a captive of Russia" [1] because of the prospect of weaponized gas supply cuts. I also hate to say, but, at that particular moment, the man was right. This is why political extremism is bad. Nobody in Europe listened to him. Had him be more respectful, polite and balanced in his communication, maybe he could have convinced Germany to anticipate what they're scrambling to do no…

A lot of bad country leaders have been right at times. I am trying to resist to invoke Godwin's law here...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#285

Post by hyperman1 »

throwawaysleep wrote: post #51
pastor_bob wrote: post #13

Quoted post unavailable.

Plenty of countries that were not Germany predicted this. This was not some unique insight on his part.

'Literally dumber than Trump' is not a good label, even for a politician.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#286

Post by jonathan-adly »

bilbo0s wrote: post #266
jonathan-adly wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, Crimea would have been the perfect time to realize that depending on a rational, happy Russia for gas is a bad idea. Don't worry though, America is repeating the same mistakes with China. So, its not just Europe.

We don't depend on China for energy.

But we depend on them for everything else. I am deeply embedded in the drug supply chain - we would run out of live-savings drugs in 3-6 months of China closed shop.

(and drugs are not fundamentally different from any low-margin manufacturing critical item)

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#287

Post by s1artibartfast »

Scarblac wrote: post #253
hans1729 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This asserts that Russian aggression would transcend across NATO-borders. Is that a given? 1. Party Z invades Country U. 2. Continent C denounces the invasion of U and sanctions Z. 3. Z retaliates against C. Does an act of retaliation (weaponizing Gas) from Z towards C count a declaration of war? Because if not, who exactly did Russia declare war on? Europe is many things, most prominently a continent and an idea. Wa…

I see cutting off the EU's has supply as very similar to war, and they started doing that last November. So they will again, the moment the EU doesn't do exactly what Russia says.

The same thing holds true for freezing Russia's foreign Reserves.

In many ways the EU and Russia are at War. It's just not a shooting War

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#288

Post by hdjjhhvvhga »

killjoywashere wrote: post #130
nisa wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am on the margin. So is my family. I'm getting by fine at the moment but I'm just a little above the poverty line but have no reserves. I have no choice anyway. I just hope that if I can't pay the bills there will be a moratorium to cut energy for a while. I'm trying to buildup a reserve for a few months exactly for that situation. It's also not clear when the price hikes will hit the consumers so I hope I have a f…

A large-scale theme in humanity that usually goes unnoticed is how much more the poor are willing accept privations and duties in the name of patriotism. They are also more charitable on a per-cent basis, and certainly on a marginal per-cent basis.

In this case it's not just patriotism and noble ideas but sheer realism. The civilized world needs to do everything to weaken Russia to minimize the chances of them expanding the war. We got totally dependent on cheap Russian gas in spite of warnings and now is the price to pay. There is really no alternative. I mean yes, we can lift sanctions and let Russia build advanced rockets with our chips, but is this really the future we want to build?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#289

Post by _ph_ »

TuringNYC wrote: post #219
DeWilde wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share the sentiment regarding Russia's fascist regime but it seems much more realistic that the EU will just silently walk back on the embargoes. After all, if the populace gets too uneasy with higher energy bills the politicians won't have any issues dealing business with Russia. And with the support for energy embargoes already falling to 32% in Germany[0] in mid July this seems like the most likely outcome. Ques…

>> Question is will Russia then attempt to hurt Europe by blocking gas deliveries like it is doing now with Nord Stream 1. Sorry for the naive question, but are the Nord Stream gas deliveries: 1. blocked because sanctions dont allow for commerce/transactions, or 2. blocked to hurt the customer (Europe) by not transacting even when transacting is possible?

There are no sanctions against Russian gas and the contractual agreed money is paid as specified in the contracts. The involved Russian banks have been excluded from the sanctions to facilitate that. On the other side, Russia has started to starve Europe of Gas about a year ago, also showing how long planned this war is. The boiling of a frog metaphor applies here and has been executed perfectly by Russia. As shown by how many people don't realize what had happened.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#290

Post by stingraycharles »

hans1729 wrote: post #274
bell-cot wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The old cynic in me wonders what it would take, for Germany to care about building major new infrastructure fast . Asteroid Dino-Doom 2.0 headed straight for Dortmund, and the needed interceptor rockets stacked like logs outside the barely-started launch facility?

When covid hit, governments across Germany realized wait, we need videoconferencing for students! . For the prime ministers and their ministers of education, this meant they could either shine in comparison to the others, or the opposition would rip them apart in the next election. Suddenly: money everywhere, zero red tape, worry about compliance later, get it done now . So, if the political will is there, things are…

So the conclusion is that they don’t yet believe the danger is imminent?

As a Dutch person whose country is equally dependent on gas (but happens to be sitting on gas as well, which can’t be used for political reasons), I’m flabbergasted by the optimism of the politicians.

Yes, it may be fine, but why bet on it? Why isn’t there more central EU coordination in case there actually will be a gas shortage, and we need to divide the gas? Who gets what and who should deliver to whom?

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