We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption • Hacker News Board

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#281

Post by DaiPlusPlus » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 9:07 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #173

l-lousy wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would guess because they didn’t have billions in Vc money to lose while they tried to weed out competition and secure new customers

I would guess they did not have the timing right with the advent of 3G internet with minimum viable bandwidth to be able to operate things like maps and GPS and payment processing in real time, combined with the advent of usable mobile phones with sufficient qualities of battery life, touch screen sizes, and computing power. The 2007 to 2012 period was a perfect storm of bringing together connectivity with never befo…

> advent of 3G internet with minimum viable bandwidth to be able to operate things like maps and GPS and payment processing in real time

I just realized that GPS was probably the reason: I remember my first time using Uber and it was the fact you could see the location of the car and yourself on the map in real-time, and so you could easily get to the car without the usual hassle of trying to locate and identify each other. That's just not possible with SMS (even if a phone did support GPS, I've never seen anything like "send coordinates by SMS" on a feature-phone, and even if the server could render a map it wouldn't be downloaded in real-time to be useful.

...though if it was a Java mobile app for each platform, that might have worked (even over GPRS), but considering how expensive mobile-data was at the time, hmm, yeah.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#282

Post by giaour » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 9:11 PM UTC

SilasX wrote: post #241

MrMan wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the previous poster makes a very important point - Uber re-externalized the costs for fleet maintenance and many other costs and push them outside their balance sheet.

Yes, it’s just a bad point. Uber was popular even when just the black car service, which wasn’t externalizing anything that didn’t already work like that. No magic accounting there, no exploitation of confused drivers.

> Uber was popular even when just the black car service

Where was this true? This doesn't match my recollection at all, though I did live in a market with dense preexisting taxi and black car services (NYC and SF).

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#283

Post by taurath » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 9:24 PM UTC

xmprt wrote: post #18

taurath wrote: post #11

Having taken a $30 Uber to drive 15 minutes lately, when a taxi would’ve cost $10 or so, I don’t think they’ve ultimately created much value with their rideshare service. They’ve basically just moved the entities around, and now it takes a lot longer to get a taxi. Ultimately this is an era largely of the conglomerate, it doesn’t matter who you are unless you’re one of the big fishes. Media, Advertising, etc. Its no…

That doesn't sound right to me. The only place where you're paying $30 for an Uber where 1. it would have been possible to call a taxi, 2. the taxi only costs $10, 3. it's a 15 minute drive, is in the middle of a big city. In that case, why are you calling an Uber instead of using public transit? Yes, Ubers are more expensive than taxis in some cases, but in many other cases, they can do things that taxis can't.

You're right it is in a big city. A taxi meter except to/from an airport is almost always much cheaper than a rideshare. A cab that takes 15 minutes might require a 45-60 minute bus journey if you have to transfer.

It was $30 for the slowest uber or lyft before tip. Taxi fare is $2.60 + $1.70/km, so it would have been around $10 to make the 3.5 mile journey. There used to be enough taxi's in the area to just hail one.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#284

Post by musicale » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 9:25 PM UTC

version_five wrote: post #171

Where I was during uber's ascent, uber's defining value proposition was circumventing the artificial monopoly created by the taxi medallion system. This "disruption" was actually great, it shook up an industry that needed shaking up (ironically I now use cabs because they have become better than uber where I am. This would not be the case if uber never existed). But even if it did some good "disrupting", I think the…

> Uber's defining value proposition was circumventing the artificial monopoly created by the taxi medallion system

Licensing/regulatory evasion is one of the principal strategies that got Uber (taxi services), Airbnb (hotel services) and Paypal (banking services) off the ground and allowed them to compete so effectively against incumbents.

Eventually regulation caught up somewhat but the newcomers still seem to enjoy a favorable regulatory/licensing regime.

And of course another major strategy for Uber and Airbnb was eliminating full-time frontline employees.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#285

Post by taurath » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 9:27 PM UTC

Gareth321 wrote: post #40

taurath wrote: post #11

Having taken a $30 Uber to drive 15 minutes lately, when a taxi would’ve cost $10 or so, I don’t think they’ve ultimately created much value with their rideshare service. They’ve basically just moved the entities around, and now it takes a lot longer to get a taxi. Ultimately this is an era largely of the conglomerate, it doesn’t matter who you are unless you’re one of the big fishes. Media, Advertising, etc. Its no…

>Having taken a $30 Uber to drive 15 minutes lately, when a taxi would’ve cost $10 or so, I don’t think they’ve ultimately created much value with their rideshare service. They’ve basically just moved the entities around, and now it takes a lot longer to get a taxi. You forget just how terrible the taxi industry was prior to Uber. I would walk for miles rather than take a taxi. I would gladly pay 2-3x more for an Ube…

Do you have any examples what was better? Of the reasons I could think of that would constitute poor service, I've had as many Uber's just not show up as I've had taxis. I've had as many very poor drivers in Uber's as I've had in Taxis. The biggest thing I can think of is the average cleanliness of an uber is higher than a taxi.

But like, the taxi meters are just so damn cheap compared to what ubers are nowadays, and thats with $6billion in losses per year. $30 is too much to go just 5 miles in 15 minutes.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#286

Post by Shuang1 » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 9:55 PM UTC

pessimizer wrote: post #249

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, Amazon's business model?

Amazon's business model was being first and not having to pay taxes for a decade and a half.

Amazon was not the first in e-commerce and they "didn't pay taxes" because they reinvested the money rather than taking it as dividends. Amazon won because of their efficiency and customer service. Even today, FedEx usually takes weeks to deliver while Amazon has same day or two day delivery.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#287

Post by grecy » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 10:03 PM UTC

dzikimarian wrote: post #177

grecy wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’ve never seen the need for Uber It's incredible spending time in the undeveloped/developing world - all the problems and solutions that "gig" apps supposedly are good for live on to this day all over the world. Need a place to stay? Ask around the village and someone will be more than happy for you to sleep in the spare room for $1/night. Need a ride? Wait where the locals are, you'll get in a communal "taxi" wit…

> Need a place to stay? Ask around the village and someone will be more than happy for you to sleep in the spare room for $1/night. Out of curiosity - where did you have such experience?

I've done it at least 50 times through Central and South America and all the way around the coastline of Africa.

Real people out there are much friendlier and welcoming than seems possible.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#288

Post by horsawlarway » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 10:04 PM UTC

bsder wrote: post #278

horsawlarway wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What’s missed in these discussions is these regulations had a point to them. This varies a lot by area - For example, I'd say the NY medallion regulations had a point to them, and that point was to systematically abuse cab drivers for the profit of the local government and banks. Then for example - in my area (Atlanta) medallion supply was capped at 1600 - the result meant cabs basically didn't exist outside of the…

> This varies a lot by area - For example, I'd say the NY medallion regulations had a point to them, and that point was to systematically abuse cab drivers for the profit of the local government and banks. NY cab medallion regulations were rooted in the aftermath of the Great Depression where it was a race to the bottom and little things like "car maintenance" were viewed as a burden. Funnily enough, Uber and Lyft ar…

Sure - Regulations need to be a balancing act, though.

Without any - Folks will cut every corner they can to save money, which leads to lots of negative externalities.

With too many - there's no reason to offer a compelling product, because the regulations define such a static status quo.

Both of those are bad. You need a healthy mix.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#289

Post by musicale » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 10:07 PM UTC

> The arrogance of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs seems so outrageous — and so childishly naive — that it is scarcely (sic) hard to believe. How could an industry that has produced so little in terms of productivity seem so sure that they’ve been “changing the world” for the better.

Let's take one fabulously successful/wealthy/arrogant Silicon Valley company – Apple – which helped to improve and/or popularize: personal computers (Apple II), GUI computing (Macintosh), laser printing (LaserWriter), laptops (Power/i/MacBook), digital photography (QuickTake, iPhone), MP3 players (iPod), Wi-Fi (AirPort), smartphones (iPhone), app stores (App Store), tablets (iPad), smart watches (Apple watch), etc..

Silicon Valley also helped to create many beneficial advancements in the areas of: microprocessors, digital storage, the internet, the world wide web, video conferencing, digital and online games, streaming media, automatic translation, etc..

I would imagine that the author appreciates at least a few of these technologies and would not wish to give them up.

Moreover, the claim that productivity has not been increased by computing and information technology seems to have been largely refuted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox

However, the claim that Google and Facebook are disruptors rather than innovators is interesting. I don't think he's talking about disrupting AltaVista and MySpace, but rather disrupting the sale of advertisements and media (newspapers, magazines) that depended on those ad sales.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#290

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 » Sun, Mar 13, 2022, 10:47 PM UTC

This blog post seems quite a departure from the author's portrayal of Silicon Valley in his two most recent books.

In the books he defines "innovation" as a novel solution to an important problem, but highlights that "important" is subjective. What one person think is important may be different from what another person thinks is important.

This subjectivity is exemplified in the top comment in this thread. The commenter believes "AI/ML research" and cashierless checkout from a single company are examples of innovation. This confused thinking is perhaps a contributing reason that today's faux "innovation" is able to gain traction. The top comment believes research is innovation. Further, the important problem to be solved in the opinion of the commenter is the existence of cashiers, not, e.g., how to increase their productivity.

Methods of increasing profits and solutions to important problems (=innovation) are not necessarily synonymous.