It's an internal resistance conducted by the military. In the coming days I would expect a coup, Putin's arrest(or worse), the new administration, end of war.
Willing to put money on that?
I think it's immoral to bet on people's lives.
What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
281–290 of 791 posts
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#282[deleted]
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#283Earlier quoted context omitted.
MIG-29s which they are already flying, not B-52s which are useless to them. The deal fell apart, however. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-poland-sending-fighter-...
This is a kind of Catch 22 situation with how to deliver those MIG-29s: If a Polish pilot flies it to Ukraine, Russia will consider that an act of war, and possibly start bombarding Poland. If Ukrainian pilot comes to Poland and takes off from a Polish airport then again: that is an act of war. The only possibility to deliver them without joining the war against Russia seems to be to disassemble those MIGs and send t…
All EU countries started supplying arms to Ukraine. If it is a plane or anti-tank missile makes no difference.
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#284Earlier quoted context omitted.
If that is the case, why would officials and experts be "stumped"? This seems like the obvious explanation.
Depends on what you mean by experts. The strategist I know said this is a political decision. They don't want to inflict too much damage to avoid bloody insurrections in the future. Russian aircrafts are not that precise. What is more, UA army received manpads. It's not worth it.
> They don't want to inflict too much damage
Have you seen what they have done to Mariupol and Kharkiv the last few days? Maybe this was the original plan, but with that botched there seems to be no consideration for damage to civilians.
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#285I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…
It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly.
We must define "efforts" or "avoid" very differently. At the very start of the invasion, there was a video of Russian tanks deliberately trying to run over civilian cars.
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#286Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree, they have used their airforce extensively in Syria with precision guided bombs, and I'd be very surprised if that didn't help the pilots gain a lot of experience too. All those reasons might have explained a lower intensity air presence but not the outright absence of russian planes. I think it's mostly due to public perception because air strikes, no matter how precise, cause a lot of collateral damage,…
This is what the article argues. That it is possible that they used up most of their precision guided bombs in Syria and are mostly left with unguided munitions.
I'm not sure I'd agree because they haven't even used their ballistic or cruise missiles in any significant number either. And we know they have a lot, lot more of those even if we just count Soviet stock. To me that indicates that there is something more to it than just lacking the munition itself.
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#287I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…
This is a war of hatred towards Ukrainians from Putin. Therefore he's both 1) not expecting resistance because enemies are dehumanized and weak according to his worldview, 2) probably ready to start genocide if enemies resist too much, after all, Holodomor happened less than a century ago.
My pet theory is that, in addition to (1), Putin believed his own propaganda and thought that the Ukrainian people (and even parts of the Ukrainian military) would welcome Russia with open arms. This is somewhat backed up by Putin urging the Ukrainian military to perform a coup on the second day of the war[1].
[1] https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-urges-ukraine-military-to-o...
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#288I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…
I still can't see how (b) doesn't still lead to (c). He needs to control the security apparatus, and that means essentially being an occupying force. It's not like the Ukrainians have not already have their security trampled all over already, so the usual limits on a popular uprising are gone already.
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#289I can only assume they are keeping their powder dry, or working to limit casualties. I saw a video of a lady riding in a car beside a convoy, and then she threw a molotov and the driver sped off. If that were Iraq in 2003, she car probably would have been lit up.
I thought the same thing when I saw that video - how the heck did the people in the car survive that?
Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
#290Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does NATO membership imply that America owns the country? I haven't witnessed anything like that in any of the European NATO countries.
>Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm Like I said, I'm not enlisting if the Russians invade Poland. If individual American citizens want to…
Are you saying you would enlist if Germany, France, or the UK was invaded, but specifically Poland isn't worth enlisting for, because it's a former Warsaw Pact country?
Or are you saying that you just don't believe in NATO, you would like the US not to have mutual defense alliances at all, and the expansion of NATO is completely irrelevant to your feelings about NATO?
Poland and Hungary have done autocratic things I don't agree with, but their governments seem to come much closer to following the will of the people then they would if they were again inside Russia's sphere of influence, and I think bringing them inside NATO was good for them.
I'm not sure whether it was a good maneuver strategically, but I'm also not sure it wasn't.