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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#281

Post by flr03 »

thepra wrote: post #110
winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

From Putins interview he does explicitly say that he wouldn't be in this position if the NATO didn't push for Ukraine, as simple as that.

Putin basically made himself the dictator of a country, where political opposition and free journalism is repressed. Where a big % of the GDP is spent on military rather than on the social, economical issues the population suffers from. I don't trust a thing he says, he is a psychopath driven by a massive ego and an bottomless hunger for power.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#282

Post by pseudostem »

wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

I usually avoid posting here as I see far more intelligent people on this forum. Since you asked for conjecture...

I'd recommend Caspian Report's video [1] first. Secondly, if we look at Cuban missile crisis, US had a strong reaction to missiles around them. I see the Russian reaction pretty similar. They do not want NATO expansion and they do not want missiles in Poland.

[1] https://youtu.be/HE6rSljTwdU

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#283

Post by watwut »

icelancer wrote: post #158
watwut wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not understandable. "I don't like nato at the border, therefore I will push my border toward nato". Russian "nato is ennemy" exists, because Russia wants nato be ennemy. It prevents further expansion.

Putin already believes he shares a border with NATO. Ukraine is not independent in his mind. Foundations of Geopolitics explains in depth what modern Russian foreign policy is aiming for.

That would be correct belief. Russia shares border with Estonia and Latvia. If he manage to occupy whole of Ukraine, he will share border with Poland, Slovakia and Romania too.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#284

Post by mopsi »

2143 wrote: post #219
mopsi wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And Russia would've been scared and retreated. Yes. Without sarcasm. This happened several times with Trump, who despite all his faults, was a master bullshitter and master at seeing through other bullshitters. A notable episode was an attack by Russian Wagner group on a small outpost held by 30-something US special forces soldiers guarding a gas plant in Syria. Signals intelligence was later able to capture a few…

> modern army and it was a total massacre You don't get it. Look, nobody has any doubt that USA is very powerful. But that doesn't mean they must annihilate the world. And Russia is no slouch. Diplomacy is the need of the hour. As somebody who lives far far away from Europe and North America (in a country that's supposed to have no skin in this game), I don't want to get killed because Uncle Sam wants to show who's b…

> Look, nobody has any doubt that USA is very powerful.

Russia obviously doubts. All that power is useless if you are afraid of using it. Russia conquered Crimea in 2014 without firing a single shot in the best spirit of Sun Tzu because everyone else was so deathly afraid of what might happen that it utterly paralyzed them.

Congratz on being far away. I live next to a strategically important rail bridge that will get hit by a missile in the next round if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine. I don't think appeasement is going to achieve that.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#285

Post by sgjohnson »

jaspax wrote: post #139
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

It's basically a Mexican standoff, right? In the timeframe of months to years, Europe needs to buy Russian oil and gas as much as Russia needs to sell them. Neither side can unilaterally break off the relationship without suffering massive harm. Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more, not something that you can do in the timeframe of the current conflict.

> Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more.

Try at least 2-3 decades.

Personally I'm still a firm believer in nuclear power.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#286

Post by hef19898 »

glogla wrote: post #279
hef19898 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the Cuban Missile Crisis might have word regarding enemy troops close to the US mainland.

That was before modern ICBMs were a thing. Nowadays it doesn't matter where the missiles are.

Oh, it does a lot. The closer you are the less time your enemy has to react. ICBM launches are detected, buying at least enough time to shoot at least back.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#287

Post by bakuninsbart »

wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

- Ukraine is the entry door to the russian heartland, and as such has always held central importance to the russian military doctrine.

- Russia still has the internal view of a superpower, but they aren't anymore, Putin wants to reclaim lost glory.

- Ukraine becoming a successful democracy right next to Russia would further delegitimize his own regime.

- There's a grain of truth in the lie that russian Ukranians are discriminated against. Ukraine is very regionally divided on wether to have a pro-western or pro-russian government. [0] The pro-russian rebels are certainly supported and probably also instigated by Russia, but they do hold support among the local population in the far east.

This is also my expectation of how the conflict will play out: Russia will bomb Ukraine, invade from all sides in a limited capacity, but with the strategic goal of crippling Ukraine and conquering the whole regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. When those two regions are secured, I suspect a ceasefire wille be reached. That said, I've been wrong before, I truly did not expect Russia to just brazenly invade like this.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_e...

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#288

Post by fromPL123 »

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

I think yes.

So in 2008 when he attacked Georgia back then Polish president Lech told such thing: "first Georgia, then Ukraine then baltic states, then maybe our country". Maybe he read it right and in 2010 it was assassination like some suspect and not "an accident".

IMO lots of EU parties are in Russian pocket and this is nothing good.

This is dark scenario but if they got deal with China, we are all fucked. They will make mess in EU so they can focus on East Asia/Middle East. US is overleveraged and once oil != $ is done.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#290

Post by nickpp »

elric wrote: post #115
d3ckard wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Otherwise you let Putin have Ukraine and basically show your ass. We’re all afraid of nukes, but that fear can’t make us allow for everything. I am a Pole as well and also very uncomfortable. I also believe Nato should intervene in Ukraine. Otherwise, we just wait until it’s our turn.

The nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed ~200k people. Any target worth nuking, (say Nato HQ) will result in millions of casualties. Urbanization & increased population density have many benefits, but they make for mind-bogglingly disastrous targets of nukes. If there's a choice between nukes raining down and between Putin ruling the world, I'll happily choose the latter. No matter the cost, there cannot be a nucl…

Giving up everything trying to avoid a nuclear war is the surest way to get it. I know, it's counterintuitive, but if you want peace you must be willing to go to war.
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