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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#281

Post by jcadam »

cercatrova wrote: post #226
throwawayboise wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone use it? I am thinking that people are so accustomed to immediate online gratification that waiting a day or three for a DVD in the mail is just not something a lot of people will do anymore. That means you are going to have to think ahead about what you want to watch, and plan a time to do it, rather than just flopping down on the couch and surfing to find whatever catches your eye. And many people don't…

I don't personally as I don't even have a disc drive in my house but when looking online, people in rural areas use it apparently.

Makes sense considering the state of rural internet in many places.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#282

Post by tootie »

ecshafer wrote: post #25

Facebook is currently ahead, but I wonder how much of that is perception. There is a lot of media about how Facebook is evil, but that is mostly from a pretty small circle of media and political people, that Facebook is naturally in opposition to. Facebook also owns instagram and whatsapp as well. But everyone over 30 I know uses Facebook, heavily. Instagram is also used very heavily. Amazon has threats from other E-…

I voted for FB but yeah I really have no idea. I don't get social media at all. I don't get Twitter or TikTok. I don't get how anyone makes a nickel in advertising. I also don't get crypto. They're worth billions based on network effects for reasons I can't comprehend. I understand the internal logic of how they function and monetize but I can't understand how they get so much engagement.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#283

Post by mandeepj »

Clubber wrote: post #9

Amazon, Google and Netflix seem to be happy where they are and don't seem to be innovating much; more interested in collecting rents on existing properties. Apple keeps doing what they've been doing for the last 20 years (successfully). Facebook is trying to pitch this Meta thing, which to me sounds like a desperation play and doesn't sound that interesting, but I'm not hip with whatever is going on in social media.

> Amazon, Google and Netflix seem to be happy where they are and don't seem to be innovating much

Amazon and Google are conglomerates now. So, if you are just focusing on Amazon.com and Google search/ads/email - then it's hard to tell.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#284

Post by jrsj »

b9a2cab5 wrote: post #230
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Netflix is already on the way down. They infused all of their new shows with wokeness. Every new show feels like woke concepts are shoehorned in without regard for their impact on the story that's told. Look at the Witcher for an example. Or if you want to see this kind of shift happening over the course of a show, look at Madam Secretary. Season 1 didn't feature any of this crap and showed a strong woman main charac…

How is the Witcher woke? I actually haven’t really heard this before so I’m genuinely interested to hear your thoughts on it.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#285

Post by 015a »

The leading indicator I'd use to analyze how strong these companies will be in a decade is: how much of their bull market zeitgeist is based around nebulous technology ideas that don't exist, and that investors really don't understand. Its the "hope" factor; if investors are bullish on promises about future tech, it means they aren't bullish about their current tech; and history is the best indicator of the future.

The three big zeitgeists right now are: AR/VR, Metaverse, and Crypto. By this measure:

Amazon is very strong. This is a company that achieved unreal fulfillment numbers during a world-stopping global pandemic that brought their peers to their knees. Yet they only control single-digit percentages of US commerce. They're a company that doesn't just make empty promises about next-gen tech like drone delivery or same-day fulfillment or "supply chain hardening"; they deliver (literally) and are deploying this tech today.

Google is strong. Google is the ghost in the information machine. Ten years ago everyone was so concerned about how competitors could disrupt their control in search, maps, video, etc. No one has. If they have eyes, they will find a way to monetize it. Combine that with their slow but methodical push into B2B, between Workspace & Cloud, and I'm not concerned about them.

Netflix is stable. Piracy will be an issue as these platforms shard more and more good content between different subscriptions, but I also think its a self-fixing problem. We're in a period of striation, and we'll soon enter a period of coalescing; Netflix & Disney+ are very well positioned to survive and continue to do well.

Apple is weak. iPhone is flat. Mac is flat. iPad is flat. Their biggest wins over the past decade have been on the accessory side (Watch & AirPods). AR can either be a "metaverse platform", which will stumble to see "next-iPhone success" because Apple doesn't play well with other children and loves their gardens, or it could be "another accessory", which will also stumble because that's not a trillion dollar business.

Facebook is very weak. The metaverse stuff will probably pay off to some degree, but their biggest gain will be on the hardware side. They just won't be able to produce the same kind of open digital universe that video-game native competitors in this space (like Epic) have spent years preparing for. They aren't a video game company, and that's the skillset this takes.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#286

Post by klabb3 »

faut_reflechir wrote: post #151

Initially voted Google based on a hunch: Google Search is the most likely flagship product of a FAANG to get displaced by a competitor. Unlike, say, Amazon as a hub for products or Facebook as a social network, Google Search is not a natural monopoly -- there's no inherent reason a search engine should maintain dominance if it loses its competitive advantage. The complaints from tech friends ("you can't find anything…

Another thing is that searching the web is steadily becoming displaced by more structured and localized forms of search, such as videos, nearby restaurants, products, used goods and so on. In some cases keyword search is replaced entirely - by recommendations & personalized simple buttons (gas stations on the way to my destination, the latest episodes of my favorite podcasts, etc etc).

From an ad-pipeline perspective, Google isn't entirely left behind in this new world, they still have YouTube, Google maps, Gmail, etc. However, they missed most of social and e-commerce, which feels irrecoverable at this point.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#287

Post by pyb »

hemloc_io wrote: post #266

Weird to see how little traction Amazon is getting. Labor issues, easy antitrust (you can just cut off AWS, Audible etc.) , and a new more passive CEO sounds pretty dangerous to me.

They seem to be having tech talent issues as well. In that regard, the repeat AWS outages, plus the state of the Amazon catalog could be seen canaries in the coalmine.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#288

Post by posnet »

hobs wrote: post #216
cam0 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but Netflix has gotten really good at this over the past 10 years. They create/fund some great content (and a lot of mediocre/bad content) - kind of similar to a VC fund now that I'm writing this out. They're an integral component of the entertainment industry now.

And they've been actively harming that idea by then canceling pretty much everything by the third season.

I keep hearing this from people, so I must be in the minority.

But I actually like the fact that they do limited run or self contained shows.

Not only does it mean that the show doesn't drag on for 10 seasons slowly reducing in quality until it's axed due to waning viewership.

But I've found their limited series runs to be more engaging since the writers and director are able to tell a self contained and complete story since they know the duration of the series and can pace out the story from start to end.

Also on a personal note, seeing a show has more than 5 seasons just feels like an exhausting time commitment to me at this point.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#289

Post by zmmmmm »

aantix wrote: post #55
Clubber wrote: post #9

Amazon, Google and Netflix seem to be happy where they are and don't seem to be innovating much; more interested in collecting rents on existing properties. Apple keeps doing what they've been doing for the last 20 years (successfully). Facebook is trying to pitch this Meta thing, which to me sounds like a desperation play and doesn't sound that interesting, but I'm not hip with whatever is going on in social media.

I think if Meta creates a lightweight, 4K AR or VR glasses specifically for remote presence/sharing, then longterm they have a chance. But right now, Oculus is simply too bulky and too low-res for any sort of meaningful digital work. I think what Spatial.io has done with the Halo Lens looks promising. https://youtu.be/AtRDBnUEXjk?t=16

The fascinating aspect of this is what happens when Apple launches its VR / AR hardware. At that point there is going to be an absolutely tremendous hype and re-orienting of the tech view of AR/VR and people will look for the obvious "number 2" which will default to Meta as the only viable player for mass market.

So it means Meta has the chance to be the Android to Apple's iPhone in the VR/AR space. The main challenge to me looks like that nobody can match Apple's silicon for this kind of application so Meta simply won't be able to compete in the same league as far as on-device computing power. Then, philisophically, I don't think Zuckerberg will be able to stomache opening up the Oculus/Quest ecosystem to become the open "yin" to Apple's closed ecosystem "yang". I don't think offering a second ecosystem that is just as closed is going to cut it if they want to get anywhere near what Apple's market share will be. So there's a strong risk this turns out more like Apple Watch vs Android Wear rather than iPhone vs Android.

Whatever happens, it will be pretty interesting to observe.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#290

Post by cmrdporcupine »

Agree with others about Netflix not being appropriate for this list. Their success or failure in the marketplace will have little to do with the factors affecting the others on this list.

FWIW today is my last day at Google (after 10 years), so maybe that's informing what I'm about to write...

I don't have any particular pick from any of this list which is dominant over any other, but...

People keep bringing up Google Search still being leading and dominant... but Ads is Google's revenue source and product ... and that's only partially driven by search traffic. Even without Search, Google would still be the strongest presence in online advertising.

Google's share price is buoyed quarter after quarter by Google coming in with growth in ads revenue quarter after quarter.

I don't think it's controversial to speculate that some day that has to stop. It's just taking a long time to stop. All markets have a saturation.

When it does, that will have some kind of cascading effect on Google as a whole. Engineering retention, vulnerability to competition, etc.

I think a similar kind of dynamic applies to Facebook as well, with some differences around market segment etc.

At least a couple of these companies' success depends on their ability not so much to innovate or produce a better product but to retain the right talent to stop other people from innovating or producing a better product. And to continue to do what they're already doing at scale. A failure to hand out hundreds of thousands in RSUs per engineer every year and an end to siphoning talent straight out of universities and into their payroll.. and all of that will start to crumble.

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