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Krugman on BitCoin

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

281–290 of 306 posts

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#281
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what about the people that want to use it as a currency, to buy things? If everyone views it as an investment, and not a vehicle for trade, it will fail as a currency / never take off as a currency. A lot of this logic is circular - the value will continue to rise because people will keep investing because the value will keep rising, etc.

People are not all going to hold on to it and not spend. Some people are going to feel that due to hoarding, it won't become a currency, and hence it's not a good investment, and will be more likely to spend.

"...due to hoarding, it won't become a currency, and hence it's not a good investment..."

Not necessarily.

The prospect that it's not a currency is what makes it attractive to hoarders. Hoarders/investors don't want Bitcoin to be a viable currency; they want it to be an investment commodity. And that's the crucial problem with Bitcoin: its use as a currency, and its use as an investment, are fundamentally at odds with one another. At any given time, it makes sense to be either buying/selling (hoarding) or buying/spending (transacting); at no point in time does it make sense to be doing both.

Transactors essentially believe that the value of Bitcoins will converge around a stable mean, thereby facilitating the currency's use for transactions. Hoarders believe the opposite: that the value will either be totally volatile (with lots of peaks and valleys against which to speculate), or that it will steadily climb.

Finally, we should distinguish between "selling" and "spending." A hoarder who wants out of the market will not spend his hoard; he'll sell it. A transactor also buys and "sells" Bitcoins, but in his case, "selling" involves spending them on goods or services -- not converting them back to dollars. This is a subtle, but crucial distinction. Both users buy into the market, but they exit the market differently and with different outcomes. And both will only be able to exit the market if there's liquidity in the form of willing new buyers or willing acceptors of BTC in exchange for goods and services. Each of those two outlets has a different liquidity dynamic, too.

(Sorry for the tl;dr)

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Upvoted since genuine comments and questions should not be downvoted. The concept is known as the paradox of thrift: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/the-paradox-of-t... The counterintuitive thing is that you would think that all savings flow back into the economy as investment so demand will always equals supply. This is an axiomatic assumption of classical economics (the idea is known as Say's Law) and i…

Demolished it how? All I have seen is that Keynes promotes printing of money and lots of government spending, and the people in power love this! Please enlighten us.

Say's Law implies that you can only have structural unemployment: the unemployment rate should never be above 4 percent for any real length of time. Even before the Great Depression this was obviously wrong, but no-one had a cogent explanation for why (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave for an example of the sort of tortured logic people tried to use to explain the recurring bouts of prolonged mass unemployment).

Keynes' General Theory was revolutionary because it attacked the foundations of the classical economics which were still taught but which clearly failed to describe the real world. His book outlined a number of reasons why economies don't stay in equilibrium: expectation changes, wage stickiness, the "animal spirits" of investors, etc.. You can take or leave his individual points (people have tried regressing them out), but at the end of the day he was a voice in the wilderness telling the world that deflation was bad at a time when conservative economists were advocating deflation as the solution (!!!). Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon at the time was even saying the same sort of thing we hear from Austrians and Ron Paul today, that the solution to the Great Depression required the government to "liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate [and] purge the rottenness out of the system."

This was actually monetary policy after 1928 and it only made things worse, tanking the economy and ultimately sparking a series of bank crises in 1931. Yet there is no explanation for how things could have gone so badly according to the classical economic theories which predate Keynes. Keynes' core insight was showing on a theoretical basis how economies can fall into suboptimal equilibria ("liquidity traps") characterized by high unemployment and deflation and fail to recover on their own. By the time Friedman made the remark that "we are all Keynesians now," he was pointing out that even Keynes' critics accepted his points as true by the 1970s, a time when the academic debate had shifted to whether fiscal policy (government spending) or monetary policy (interest rate manipulation) made for better policy.

> Keynes promotes printing of money and lots of government spending

This is the sort of thing you hear from people who haven't read him - Keynes did not champion indebtedness. The closest you will get is an allegory he presents in the General Theory of having the government bury money in mineshafts so the unemployed can dig them up.

Republicans trumpet this example as absurd because they think Keynes is telling us to pay people to dig holes. In fact, Keynes knew the example was absurd and was using it to parody his critics. Replace the moneybags with gold and you have exactly what happens to deflationary economies on the gold standard: as the value of gold rises in relation to the currency, the economy devotes more resources to digging up gold until the money supply expands enough that deflation stops. It is not hard to see from this example that embracing deflation is about as silly paying someone to dig holes in the ground, and actually much worse given the enormous social costs of mass unemployment you have to suffer in the meantime.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#283
post #84
post #33

"What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that’s not at all what is happening in Bitcoin." Spot friggin' on, Mr. Krugman. Bitcoin's supply limiting design has added a psychological dimension that encourages collecting. Perhaps when Bitcoin reaches supply maturity the value will stabilize but for now its…

> Perhaps when Bitcoin reaches supply maturity the value will stabilize I absolutely hate Krugman, but this is Econ 101 and even he gets it right. Bitcoin was a flawed experiment from the start because it has an absolute supply limit. Reaching that limit won't help. It'll make things worse. The money supply needs to expand for healthy economic activity and growth. If it doesn't, weird shit starts to happen. Here's an…

> I absolutely hate Krugman....

Why? ... Perhaps your views are different. Can you please point to a few good writers which you like with contrasting views than his.

(Asking a serious question. Since I, for one, like his views a lot)

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#284
post #256
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an investment, it's like gold but without the intrinsic value part and the "historically used as an investment for the past couple of millenia" part.

The intrinsic value of bitcoin is as an uncensorable way to transfer money, for example to donate to Wikileaks when Visa and Paypal won't let you. It becomes more valuable the more governments try to stop transactions. This is why I'm bullish on it.

Oh, uncensorable? You mean as long as the government permits both parties to be connected to the internet. When they block either of you, it's about as good as a hundred dollar bill.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#285
post #253
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an investment, it's like gold but without the intrinsic value part and the "historically used as an investment for the past couple of millenia" part.

The intrinsic value of gold is quite a bit less than its market value, though - it's very hard to separate that from the "historically desired" aspect. If you want intrinsic value, you're probably better off investing in good quality rifles.

Well, of course. But bitcoin doesn't have even that.

Though I would suggest that you would have to time your entry into the quality rifle investment market well to avoid getting hit by a speculative markup caused by people's expectations of their future intrinsic value.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#286
post #283
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps when Bitcoin reaches supply maturity the value will stabilize I absolutely hate Krugman, but this is Econ 101 and even he gets it right. Bitcoin was a flawed experiment from the start because it has an absolute supply limit. Reaching that limit won't help. It'll make things worse. The money supply needs to expand for healthy economic activity and growth. If it doesn't, weird shit starts to happen. Here's an…

> I absolutely hate Krugman.... Why? ... Perhaps your views are different. Can you please point to a few good writers which you like with contrasting views than his. (Asking a serious question. Since I, for one, like his views a lot)

> Why?

He has a tendency of twisting basic economic theory to fit his political agenda. It makes me nauseous.

> Can you please point to a few good writers which you like with contrasting views than his.

Just read the Wall Street Journal. They actually specialize in this sort of thing. You'll get a far more accurate picture of what's going on. NYT is good for regional and national news, not for business and economic commentary.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world already works like that. You can buy money from countries other than the US, you know.

Legal tender laws should be abolished is the thrust.

What's the advantage you get from even more currencies that you don't get from today's basket of international currencies? The only one I see is that, if you build a big enough reputation to issue your own currency, you get to collect seignorage.

In exchange for that, you now have to carry n different currencies to make sure you can buy gas at a Shell station and an Arco; small retailers go out of business because they can't afford the overhead of combating so many varieties of counterfeiting--which, while still technically illegal, is much harder to prosecute--medium sized retailers go out of business because of the accounting overhead of setting appropriate prices when several currencies could be undergoing hyper(in|de)flation at any time.

I'm not sure that's a good trade.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#288
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what about the people that want to use it as a currency, to buy things? If everyone views it as an investment, and not a vehicle for trade, it will fail as a currency / never take off as a currency. A lot of this logic is circular - the value will continue to rise because people will keep investing because the value will keep rising, etc.

People are not all going to hold on to it and not spend. Some people are going to feel that due to hoarding, it won't become a currency, and hence it's not a good investment, and will be more likely to spend.

Some people are going to feel that due to hoarding, it won't become a currency, and hence it's not a good investment, and will be more likely to spend.

But if I as an individual consumer feel that bitcoin won't become a currency, why would I even be converting my money into bitcoin in the first place?

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#289
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes sense, but what I'm wondering is: why doesn't the same argument apply to all products in the presence of deflation? It seems to me the real problem of deflation is that debts get harder to pay off, not that people put off their purchases. But the "deflationary spiral" of delayed purchases is what people keep talking about, and I haven't heard a good reason why the tech industry is uniquely exempt from that…

Deflationary spirals happen when the average price of everything, economy-wide, is going down. It’s perfectly normal for some things in the economy to get cheaper while other things get more expensive. Consumer technology is conspicuous and the way it gets cheap is conspicuous, but it accounts for a small proportion of what the average American spends money on. (The average American spends a small proportion of his/h…

Sure, but why does that make the difference? Why doesn't that incentive work the same way when it's one class of products, as when it's all products?

Also, there are several periods in American history when we had modest deflation and a booming economy. The Roaring Twenties was one. How did that happen?

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, for all I've read about Austrian Economics, I've never heard that simple yet devastating argument.

Austrians don't advocate for a deflationary currency, they advocate for competing currencies. Rothbard, one of the "pillars" of Austrian Economics, even stated that The Great Depression was due to deflation not inflation. Lots of people that scratch the surface of Austrian Economics immediately start shouting the ills of inflation and such. Most "hardcore" Austrians I know would like a currency that's supply grew wit…

Thanks. I knew this was wrong as soon as it left my keyboard.

I guess the problem we're having is that the Fed's mandate is to keep unemployment low, not to expand the currency as the population expands.

I really don't understand how a currency supply is supposed to track growth, when one of the means of controlling currency expansion, the discount rate, can actually stimulate growth sometimes, right?

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