Why is it so hard to be rational? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#281

Post by elihu » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:44 AM UTC

I think the main problem with trying to be 100% rational is that even if you could predict the outcome of your decisions perfectly, the question of which outcome is "best" is inherently not a rational one. First you need to have some goal in mind, then (maybe) you can apply logic and reason to achieve that goal.

I think a lot of political disagreements aren't really about logical arguments at all, but rather differences in opinion over relative priority of some ideals that are all important. There isn't always an objective right answer.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#282

Post by paulpauper » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 2:56 AM UTC

How much do you think Greg is worth? Several thousand is a lot but if the author has debt then maybe not

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#283

Post by michael1999 » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 3:01 AM UTC

kubb wrote: post #39

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #31

> In a recent interview, Cowen—a superhuman reader whose blog, Marginal Revolution, is a daily destination for info-hungry rationalists—told Ezra Klein that the rationality movement has adopted an “extremely culturally specific way of viewing the world.” It’s the culture, more or less, of winning arguments in Web forums. This matches my observations, too. > Cowen suggested that to understand reality you must not just…

One of my many pet peeves are people who travel to more than a 100 countries to get "experiences". It feels misguided, wasteful, excessive and done to impress others, as a sort of a status symbol. I bet he wouldn't be able to name all those countries and cities that he's been to. A deep and meaningful experience requires way more than a superficial visit.

He's an academic in economics with interests in the role of institutions and culture in how we economies develop and function (or don't function). How else shall he do his job? I would suggest you should save your disdain for economists who never leave their office.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#284

Post by paulpauper » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 3:15 AM UTC

Greg has much more money but one of the perks of being a profesional writer or coljmnists is ppl care about your views and they have potentially some impact on society. The classics are immortalized but ray dalio a year ago wrote a book about his 'values'..it made a splash for a week and was soon forgotten, condemned to an early pulp-ing.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#285

Post by klipt » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 3:21 AM UTC

JohnPrine wrote: post #207

Nav_Panel wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you hung out much with rationalists?

i consider myself a rationalist (or at least, an aspiring rationalist), and people like hanging out with me. learning about this stuff has changed my life and relationships for the better.

Interesting, can you give a specific example of using rationalist techniques to solve a relationship problem?

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#286

Post by ad8e » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 3:35 AM UTC

threatofrain wrote: post #213

btilly wrote: post #14

I maintain that it isn't just hard, it is computationally impossible. We should all know that given a belief about the world, and evidence, Bayes' Theorem describes how to update our beliefs. But what if we have a network of interrelated beliefs? That's called a Bayesian net, and it turns out that Bayes' Theorem also prescribes a unique answer. However, unfortunately, it turns out that working out that answer is NP-h…

Daniel Kahneman has soured on his own System 1/2 theory, plus his original theory discussed bounded rationality and not the kind of objective rationality which fell out of favor in econ literature a long time ago.

I'm interested in learning more. Is there a resource where I can see Kahneman's changed thoughts?

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#287

Post by Nav_Panel » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 3:54 AM UTC

skosch wrote: post #276

Nav_Panel wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you hung out much with rationalists?

Have you? Because the rationalists I know are genuinely well-adjusted people. It's cheap and easy to make fun of the lesswrong community as a cringy cult of AI-obsessed neckbeards. And to be fair, the writing style on LW tends to support that impression. But I've found that most of the actual people within the rationality/AI safety/effective altruism communities actually don't fit that stereotype at all.

Yes, I was in the community for several years and then "left" but still spend a lot of time on its edges. I'm not trying to call them "neckbeards" (although I knew many of those too), only saying that there is an air of superiority without any actually radical content.

I consider EA separate but related, and it definitely qualifies as staking out a superior position within the constraints of liberal morality.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#288

Post by mbesto » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 4:12 AM UTC

danans wrote: post #104

I think there is a simpler explanation that draws from evolutionary theory: being excessively rational is not a good survival strategy, be it in the distant past or today. If our ancestors would have made the rational assessment that there is unlikely to be a predator hiding behind the bush, that would have worked only as long as it worked, until one day they got eaten. Irrationally overestimating threats and risks i…

I like this, but I also like the even simpler explanation. Our bodies/minds require energy and "skipping" to conclusions (irrationally) expends less energy.

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#289

Post by FeepingCreature » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 5:08 AM UTC

lmm wrote: post #280

skosch wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you? Because the rationalists I know are genuinely well-adjusted people. It's cheap and easy to make fun of the lesswrong community as a cringy cult of AI-obsessed neckbeards. And to be fair, the writing style on LW tends to support that impression. But I've found that most of the actual people within the rationality/AI safety/effective altruism communities actually don't fit that stereotype at all.

I went to a couple of meetups and found one cool dude surrounded by a group that exactly fit the stereotype, FWIW.

I went to a couple of meetups and never met anyone who would fit that description.

But then, as a lesswrongy person, maybe it's me, maybe "feeling superior" or whatever is just normal to me :shrug:

(But my actual theory is, it's probably just geographical.)

Re: Why is it so hard to be rational?

#290

Post by nathias » Tue, Aug 17, 2021, 5:55 AM UTC

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #12

nathias wrote: post #3

Ah yes, the modern rationalists, few things are as cringe as modern adaptation of classical intellectual currents. Like reddit atheism, it makes a great disservice to the concept from which they steal their name. They have no education beyond their narrow limits, no interest in what lies beyond their time or their common sense.

Sure, naive rationalism is intellectually dead, but post-rationalism deserves a better endorsement, thus the downvotes. I suspect most people aren't yet familiar with the discourse. If I was more qualified I'd write it myself, but alas.

Yea, I consider myself a rationalist because I share a similar epistemological framework to the classical rationalism, I was very disappointed to find that a 'rationalist' movement exists and takes nothing but the name from rationalism.