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A 3°C world has no safe place

economist.com

281–290 of 291 posts

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#281
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is such a horrible replacement. Let's let future generations deal with the waste from the power that sustained our lifestyle. I hate it. I'd rather live with less.

Every time I mention this here on HN I am down-voted. But I really think that in a next few decades sending (dangerous) cargo to (deep) space will become cheap and reliable. Space tourism just started this month and that will fund thousands of engineers working on that goal.

Looks like I got the downvotes too. Sometimes the unpopular opinion is the correct one.

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#283
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nucelear is the only realistic option to even get to the future.

Nah, we can do pretty well with just wind and solar. The practical difficulty with using renewables effectively is that you need to be able to either store large amounts of energy for later use, or trade power across long distances. We (by which I mean "in the U.S." but for other developed countries it's pretty much the same) could buy solar power from Kenya, Australia, Algeria, or similar places to get us through th…

> That's a major infrastructure project that would cost a lot of money, but I expect it's probably worth it.

So, we'll just keep burning coal.

> I just don't think it's the only option at this point.

It needs to be viable economically and politically, which could be years from now.

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would, but realistically, a majority of people are not willing to live with significantly less (which would entail a contraction in the economy and loss of jobs). And that includes all the people in countries still catching up. Nuclear was the alternative decades ago, and we could have witched to it until renewable tech was up to scale. So we decided a significantly warmer climate was better than dealing with rad…

It does not have to mean a loss of jobs. It would mean different jobs, and it means valuing work differently right along with things.

Realistically, which is all that matters for this issue, you're not going to change how everyone values their work and things. Maybe it changes once we get to 2.5-3 degrees warming.

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#285
post #49

American here. I took a bunch of earth science classes in college in 1999. I realized then, I would just plan ahead and aim for an urbanist lifestyle, because our country would have to change. I focused on transit alternatives as my primary advocacy, because it was the most obvious low-hanging fruit and paired with the public health. I never imagined this would happen, but as the years went on, I grew less astonished…

Have faith, things can change rapidly in the right way too.

loads of resources available

loads of brains

manpower

when people realize and decide, you can flip a lot in few time

it's just the usual society blur and inertia that made people like you unable to do more.. many people tried but you can't carry the world on your shoulder so most people resign

get ready

ps: in dense cities, whenever possible, use your bike; we should make viral vids for bike rallies or bike days, it's 100+ % benefits for everybody in a week

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#286
post #59

Transportation accounts for around 30% of carbon emissions in the US. We could do a lot worse than rethinking our 'suburban experiment' where many people are forced to use an automobile for things our ancestors could walk to in 5 minutes, to paraphrase Chuck Marohn of Strong Towns.

Having started bike commute (20km round trip), I basically don't want to anything by car. With bike-day people could realize how cool it is to glide at 11 mph without traffic. Things are way closer than they appear if you remove congestion, lights and the obligation to do more distance to reach larger roads people use for fast cars.

free workout, free health, gas savings, pollution free .. it's really something to push

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does not have to mean a loss of jobs. It would mean different jobs, and it means valuing work differently right along with things.

Realistically, which is all that matters for this issue, you're not going to change how everyone values their work and things. Maybe it changes once we get to 2.5-3 degrees warming.

All that really needs to happen is for enough people to value other kinds of work to make a market. Once that happens, it will compete with existing ones and that is just fine.

Could happen via government action, literally start paying for work and pay at a rate that seeds a market.

Could happen with individuals too. Think gig work without a company making billions at the top. While that is super attractive for some, it is entirely unnecessary, and in my view, a leaner overall model paying more to labor will prove a worthy device to move these sorts of ideas along. A variation on all this could be collectives. Companies owned by everyone in them, lean at the top, robust otherwise.

As for things, maybe we see a return to longevity in service life being more highly valued. I harbor this value now. Absolutely hate things that I know I cannot use for a decade or more. We can do so much better than the current churn of devices and software. A bit different priority and we could see more things as robust as say, Google maps still able to operate with devices made a long time ago.

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#288
post #277
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not really a critique of someone gawping at a big number to then go and gawp at a bigger one. These two numbers are only related in that they express volumes of water. The context for the comment was that lawns consume water on a scale comparable to all domestic agricultural irrigation, or half of all the domestic reticulated water supply, and it’s not doing much beyond aesthetics. That is significant use of a p…

> These two numbers are only related in that they express volumes of water. No, these three numbers are related in that they express volumes of fresh water consumed per year for particular uses in the United States. The Mississippi River is dumping 16.8 megaliters per second of freshwater into the ocean. In that context, it's totally inconsequential if people in the US spray 0.2 megaliters per second of freshwater on…

*asceticism

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#289
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>...so we really need to cut even more This is the whole pitch of the green movement. Reduce emissions at whatever cost, they completely miss the point that we (the humans on this planet) dont know how to do this. Its not about what we should do its about figuring out how and until we know how there is not much point in making peoples life harder and make them feel bad for doing what they have to do. Or make placebo…

The great majority of the world's population lives in countries with per capita emissions less than a third of the US's. Humans "know how." It doesn't take ground breaking technology for Americans to stop driving Hummers on their office commute. Nor would it take a tech breakthrough for the US government to stop giving fossil fuel companies $20b/year in tax credits and subsidies. Nor any new tech for sunny regions to…

>The great majority of the world's population lives in countries with per capita emissions less than a third of the US's

So what? Emissions are global and rising especially in the places where most people live (Asia). If emission of the whole USA would be zero from today on, global emission would keep growing. At the current rate it would only take a few years for the rest of the world additional emission to replace the whole USA. Needless to to say that zero emission is only a thought experiment. But if this better-than-best-case-scenario can only buy us 10 years or so maybe we should not focus on this?

If the average human causes half the emission of the US people then that is still more than the planet can sustain so why do we focus on the small portion of people who use the most? We should focus on finding a solutions that cuts emission for all. Its not hard to figure out that cutting emissions from all people in halve would have far more benefit than bring the US peoples emission down to the world average or even lower. It intuitively makes sense to reduce emission where it seems the highest but if you look a the whole picture it will not have the desired effect.

>It doesn't take ground breaking technology for Americans to stop driving Hummers on their office commute.

This is exactly what I meant in my original post. The whole green movement is about cutting emission at all cost. Regardless of the fact that removing hummers from Americans or even all cars that use above average fuel would do absolutely nothing on a global scale. Especially not if they have to be replaced by newly build cars.

The whole ideas that us middle-class and rich people who could afford to reduce their emissions should be the once who take the cut is completely absurd. Yes they probably could but would probably crash the global economy if they did and beside that it would not matter at all. The global emissions are not cased by luxury products and people with high emission hobbies like driving a sport car.

> Nor any new tech for sunny regions to cover building roofs with solar panels.....surely we buy a some solar panels and batteries.

It would takes 20-30 years and it would cause and insane amount of emissions to produce solar panels and batteries in these quantities that it would reduce significant emissions. In the same time the rest of the worlds additional emissions would at least double what the USA would reduce. especially if most of the electronics that the USA would need is produces somewhere else and the processing steps that case the most emissions would likely be done outside of the USA.

The reality is we dont know how to reduce global emissions in a significant way (unless you include "solutions" that would directly or indirectly cause the death of millions of people or otherwise would be ethically not okay). We waste time by doing green placebo-solutions rather than putting all the resources we still have into finding real solutions.

Re: A 3°C world has no safe place

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> while China has 28% and is growing in both per person and absolute. I'm personally completely in favor of import tariffs on goods manufactured abroad with dirty energy and immigration quotas on nationals from countries that have decided not to control their emissions.

What does immigration have to do with CO2?

Rich Chinese are obsessed with acquiring western passports. Making it harder will incentivize them to work harder at home to fix their country's horrible environmental record.
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