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The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

blogs.sciencemag.org

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Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#281

Post by jjeaff »

argvargc wrote: post #246
estaseuropano wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that the death rates would be manifold higher if not for those measures. In the global study on the effects of covid we are all in the treatment condition. That said, I agree that many of those resources would be better spent on eradicating hunger and slavery, as well as the poverty diseases.

Haven't seen convincing evidence the death rates would be higher without the measures employed, much the opposite (35 studies so far): https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-co... It is heartening to see many here agreeing we could do better.

Do the studies offer explanations as to why red states have higher infection rates than blue states despite being less densly populated?

With just a few examples in blue states where the virus took hold early on in dense urban areas in blue states, i can't think of any explanation except that red states were much less vigilant with lockdowns.

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#282

Post by argvargc »

jjeaff wrote: post #281
argvargc wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven't seen convincing evidence the death rates would be higher without the measures employed, much the opposite (35 studies so far): https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-co... It is heartening to see many here agreeing we could do better.

Do the studies offer explanations as to why red states have higher infection rates than blue states despite being less densly populated? With just a few examples in blue states where the virus took hold early on in dense urban areas in blue states, i can't think of any explanation except that red states were much less vigilant with lockdowns.

Testing is a bit of a mess. There aren't any standards and it's highly subjective and interpretative. Some facilities/tests don't even report the CT of the PCR, rendering the result essentially meaningless (which in many cases then also affects death figures, along with the "died with / died of" debacle).

Cherry-picking of course makes this worse - introducing arbitrary and potentially contaminating boundaries such as governmental policy (red vs blue). Did red states generally employ higher CT's? Do we even have that data? No, sometimes its discretionary or not even recorded. We do know Trump was heavily encouraging more testing, as this painted a better (and, to his credit, ever more accurate) picture of mortality rate, so even just that may plausibly explain such a result.

Conversely, at least regarding all of the testing data as mixed establishes a better starting point for analysis less subject to such foibles.

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#283

Post by warrenm »

notacoward wrote: post #125
brianwawok wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think we do it for malaria these days, just to reduce mosquito stings? Thinking about like mosquito sprays in Chicago...

AFAIK it's more about West Nile and EEE, maybe Zika and even others.

Though, incidentally, if you reduce/eliminate mosquitos carrying West Nile, Zika, etc ... you also reduce/eliminate the ones carrying Malaria :)

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#284

Post by warrenm »

lswainemoore wrote: post #118
jjk166 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are the numbers for a single country. Malaria kills 1-3 million people per year globally.

Unless I'm misreading the link, those numbers (~600k/yr) are global. Still, staggeringly high, and concentrated in a region.

Yes, the number is "global" - but the actual part of the "globe" that's affected is remarkably small ..making its rate far worse than it otherwise appears

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#285

Post by warrenm »

jefftk wrote: post #185
soperj wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think that's probably wrong? The most likely outcome would be that after the initial pandemic subsided (with lots of deaths), most people would catch it when they were reasonably young and then be mostly protected. Then why hasn't that happened with malaria?

Malaria is a very different sort of disease? Among other things, covid is something that (a) doesn't seem to badly affect children and (b) seems to give some kind of immunity. Malaria does not have (a).

Malaria also doesn't [seem] to have (b)

Getting malaria doesn't inherently make you less likely to get it again (if anything, it's the other way around)

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#286

Post by warrenm »

jhayward wrote: post #264
throwawayboise wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly, yes. It sounds cold hearted but many of the COVID deaths were people who were going to die in the next 24 months anyway.

> The average years of life lost per death is 16 years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3 And, dismissing the death of someone by saying "they were going to die soon anyway, so what" is disgusting.

>And, dismissing the death of someone by saying "they were going to die soon anyway, so what" is disgusting.

It may be "disgusting" - but it's also statistics

It was sad when my grandfather died a couple years ago at 87 - but not exactly "unexpected"

Compare that to friends who lost their 18-year-old daughter before she graduated high school

Which one is shocking? Which one "hurts more"?

Deaths rates follow a bathtub curve - ultimately leading to a 100% mortality rate (ie, everyone dies eventually)

If you have to choose between saving a 5-year-old and an 85-year-old, the "smart money" says "save the kid"

If you don't have to choose, then by all means - save both

But that's not how economics works: choices must be made

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#287

Post by warrenm »

jfk13 wrote: post #63
stuff4ben wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to be crass, but why wouldn't that have worked in Africa? Yes DDT is scary bad, but we seem to be doing ok in the US.

The environmental impact of widespread DDT use is pretty devastating. http://www.rachelcarson.org/SilentSpring.aspx

I had forgotten about that piece of tripe until you mentioned it

Re: The most effective malaria vaccine yet discovered

#288

Post by warrenm »

_Microft wrote: post #6

For comparison, the mentioned "RTS,S" vaccine has an efficacy "from 26 to 50% in infants and young children", see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RTS,S

25% efficacy sounds HORRIBLE ... but when you stand it next to 100s of 1000s dying every year - knocking it down by a few 10s of 1000s would be wonderful!
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