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u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

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Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. When a hedge fund is getting its face ripped off because its shorts are up 50 - 200%, it will liquidate its longs to cover. The rotational dynamics of many funds doing that at once can drive the price down on traditionally stable stocks that everyone owns. In a worst case scenario that could trigger a massive selloff which would crash the market. This is compounded by the fact that funds will defensivel…

After the sell-off, there’s a lot of cash (yes even more) washing around right? It has to go somewhere , and so it will come back into securities in probably a few weeks or max, months. The value represented isn’t exactly disappearing it’s still in the ‘system’. So why is a crash in equities prices such a big deal?

It depends.

If a hedge fund went bankrupt, the cash will go to investors who may be risk averse.

If the hedge fund survives it will have significant losses and probably be cagey about deploying a lot of capital again too quickly because it just stared into the face of death.

In the case of individual investors selling off everything, they might be scared because everything is crashing.

There's no rule that says the money will come back to the market quickly. It depends on investor sentiment. Often things have a V-shaped recovery and things are more or less "fine". We had a few of those over the past few years.

But put it to you this way, if this statement of yours:

It has to go somewhere, and so it will come back into securities in probably a few weeks or max, months. The value represented isn’t exactly disappearing it’s still in the ‘system’.

...was correct, then we wouldn't have crashes. But we do. When fear takes over the money doesn't just come back into the market quickly. And then even if it could, it doesn't because second order effects take over. Small businesses close en masse, etc, which magnifies the downturn until it snowballs into a legitimate recession.

I'm not saying a crash will happen because of this. I'm saying it very realistically can happen.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#282
post #263
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GME is absolutely going to crash and everyone knows it. There was a mod post just today reminding everyone to be ready. The stock is worth $10-20 on it's merits and that's where it will land. We just don't know when. The chance of this as a contagion that brings down indexes seems very unlikely.

GME is worth what a few dozen billion at its current valuation? How would that impact SPX, DJIA, etc.

It's at like $25B last I looked. The market cap of the S&P is $36T. The NYSE manages about $25T. So this is like 0.1%.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#284
post #225
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. My biggest concern with these plays, at this point, is that they're not taking into account the possibility of bankruptcy. There's a ton of "they have to buy it, if we hold all the shares then it'll go to the moon, 1k, 2k, 4k". (1) The sheer variety of financial vehicles available to professional investors is staggering, and while the initial DD was really good, we probably missed something at this point, and…

> My biggest concern with these plays, at this point, is that they're not taking into account the possibility of bankruptcy. Whose bankruptcy? The WSB crowd are very vocal in their goals of bankrupting hedge funds who have a lot riding on forcing gamespot's stock price to plummet.

The funds. There's an ocean of difference between "we finished the year down 98% but we met all of our obligations" and "we finished the year down 100%, and we also failed to meet our obligations". Those obligations include the repurchase and repayment of short-sold stocks sold by the brokerage.

WSB wants a short squeeze. They got that. But, their theory is that it isn't over, and if they get the 10x+ returns in the coming weeks (I don't think they will, but lets say they do), then these funds are potentially looking at commitments that approach their AUM, and a nasty margin call. That's a real recipe for shutting down, and if that happens, there is no more short to squeeze. Everyone loses.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is an artificial price and how does it differ from a real price?

It's a price that "does not reflect legitimate forces of supply and demand". One of the canonical examples of an artificial price is spoofing, where you set up fake sell orders to trick people into thinking a stock is crashing so you can buy it at a discount.

So when people who want to buy and have the funds to buy are prevented from buying by their broker, would the resulting price be one that "does not reflect legitimate forces of supply and demand"?

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people constantly have to re-invent the wheel? :( Freenet [0] has been providing censorship-resistant, anonymous, decentralized hosting for 20 years - and is still in active development! You could upload it to Freenet without any server whatsoever and it would stay online for as long as it is popular, even if your machine goes offline. And you'd be anonymous while doing so! [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr…

Is it really anonymous? How does it compare to Tor and i2p?

> Is it really anonymous?

It at least aims to be so :)

As with any anonymous p2p network you need to know:

Your level of privacy depends on your threat level. If the government is after you, they may very well know exploits. If you just want privacy from corporations for perfectly legal reasons then you might be fine.

> How does it compare to Tor and i2p?

See "How is Freenet different to Tor?" here:

https://freenetproject.org/pages/help.html

TL;DR: Freenet is a self-contained *storage* network. Tor is a *communication* network, I2P as well. The latter is also self-contained. However as they're both communication networks they do not provide censorship-resistance. The endpoints you're connecting to are central servers and can be taken down.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#287
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike Cramer, he provided DD and was transparent on his positions.

I keep seeing “DD” and I’m finally going to ask: what does this stand for.

due diligence, I suspect. i.e. "show your work".

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#288
post #203

Does anyone know if it's illegal to lie about your holdings as an individual retail investor? I've seen a handful of screenshots on /r/wallstreetbets showing large holdings, but it would be trivial to modify the page source before taking a screenshot.

Not illegal in itself. It's probably possible (though almost impossible just based on a random screenshot) for someone to prove that you committed fraud and it directly caused them harm.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#289
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was a professional poker player for ~5 years, and my wife—who has a much lower risk tolerance—asked that I never share variance with her since it causes quite a bit of anxiety. My daily numbers were in tens of thousands range rather than $11M, but the effect was the same.

How'd you get into pro poker? I'm good at statistics and would be interested in learning how to play really well.

Not a pro but I recently started learning some poker. Two texts that absolutely opened the game up to me were The Grinders Manual (fundamentals) and The Mathematics of Poker (where your stats/math background will be useful). The way I started was by dedicating 2 hours per day (1 hour studying, one hour playing online micro stakes). Next I will start learning and memorizing output from Solvers, that seems to be key to success at higher levels. Good luck on your journey if you get into it!

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmTW7sdBbZ1BXau8Cmrpv5srf38GZi1AiWWBBkv... There you go. It's not perfect though because a lot of the links still point to live assets. But it captured the important bits.

That only captured the first 4 paragraphs.

I thought there only was 4. I guess I got paywalled.
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