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Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

arstechnica.com

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Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#281

Post by jfoster »

onion2k wrote: post #225
alextheparrot wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you all talking about, the original top-level post has a reasonably presented assessment of Tesla’s strategy and the ramifications of such a strategy. Sure, that assessment might be flawed, but I don’t see how any of that is “anti-Musk bias” or “jealousy”. The comment regarding humans not needing LiDAR misses the point, which is that either every other self-driving car group is incorrectly deploying an expen…

The comment regarding humans not needing LiDAR misses the point, which is that either every other self-driving car group is incorrectly deploying an expensive hardware solution or there are valid technical reasons why that might be a better path to L5. Implementing L5 without Lidar must be possible. Humans are absolute proof of that. That's not to say Lidar isn't useful, or cost effective given the complexity of the…

One could also argue that humans are not proof of anything, as humans frequently make mistakes and conduct dangerous maneuvers whilst driving. There are many road accidents occurring right now, today, around the world, as a result of humans being insufficient drivers.

We can say that something better than human-level driving ought to be possible without LIDAR, though; take the perception of a human (cameras) and replace the brain with a computer that can make better calculations much faster than a human can.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#282

Post by cbozeman »

stingraycharles wrote: post #268
joeblau wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The term you’re looking for is “Federated Machine Learning.” The more cars Tesla has, the faster they can train the neural networks edge cases.

They are collecting data on all cars yes, but are training a model in one place. That is not federated machine learning, it’s federated data collection at best.

I think the massive collection of data from more and more Teslas is going to eventually allow them to produce the best self-driving vehicle.

Its been a maxim of history that those with the most data generally win, whether that's military intelligence of troop movements from 2000 years ago, or LIDAR scans from a car today.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#283

Post by jayd16 »

onion2k wrote: post #57
screye wrote: post #35

I worked with a self-driving product team a couple of years ago. Tesla's approach was looked upon with suspicion and often openly mocked. Tesla's entire self-driving strategy is led by Karpathy, who while brilliant, is an under-experienced researcher with a narrow expertise in large scale 2D CNNs. Tesla (and Comma.ai ?) seem to be the only groups that find Lidar unnecessary for L5 self-driving. I completely agree wit…

Tesla (and Comma.ai ?) seem to be the only groups that find Lidar unnecessary for L5 self-driving. There is another group who find Lidar unnecessary for driving: humans.

Yep. It's clear that lidar isn't literally needed. That said, I think the argument just shifts to "the cameras on a Tesla aren't good enough either."

That's also just a shot from the hip, weasely sort of argument but it's harder to dismiss outright.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#284

Post by camjohnson26 »

chillfox wrote: post #203
sorenjan wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why it's legal. How can it be allowed to send out uncertified software to cars on public roads? Aren't there safety standards that need to be met? I thought that safety critical products where better regulated than this.

Well, software that controls a car is a new thing. So I would imagine that it hasn't really been regulated yet in most jurisdictions. For some reason we have a tendency to write laws so that they are specific to individual things rather than general and future prof laws.

I don’t get why it’s not covered under existing laws, clearly every vehicle has to be operated by a driver with a valid license correct? You would think letting a vehicle drive without a licensed operator at the wheel would be negligence.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#285

Post by somedude895 »

anonytrary wrote: post #191
screye wrote: post #35

I worked with a self-driving product team a couple of years ago. Tesla's approach was looked upon with suspicion and often openly mocked. Tesla's entire self-driving strategy is led by Karpathy, who while brilliant, is an under-experienced researcher with a narrow expertise in large scale 2D CNNs. Tesla (and Comma.ai ?) seem to be the only groups that find Lidar unnecessary for L5 self-driving. I completely agree wit…

I think you hit the nail on the head. There is no such thing as "sort of self driving". It's either completely autonomous or I'm going to have to be paying some attention and I might as well be doing all of the driving at that point.

I treat Tesla's Autopilot basically like it's a very new driver or sonebody learning to drive. You're constantly paying attention to what it's doing but you can rely on it to keep its lane and distance from other cars. I appreciate it immensely on longer drives since I don't get as tired / exhausted from constantly having to be giving micro-inputs. It allows me to drive for hours and keep my head feeling fresh for much longer than when I drive other cars with no asststance features.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#286

Post by 0x10c0fe11ce »

rcxdude wrote: post #46
screye wrote: post #35

I worked with a self-driving product team a couple of years ago. Tesla's approach was looked upon with suspicion and often openly mocked. Tesla's entire self-driving strategy is led by Karpathy, who while brilliant, is an under-experienced researcher with a narrow expertise in large scale 2D CNNs. Tesla (and Comma.ai ?) seem to be the only groups that find Lidar unnecessary for L5 self-driving. I completely agree wit…

This matches my experience of how Tesla is viewed in the autonomous car industry. No-one thinks they are a serious contender when it comes to a driverless vehicle (and their business model basically doesn't match with the technology either: every other company is basically going to operate a taxi service because there's far more value to be captured and it can help pay for the hardware making driverless possible)

I’m one of those who will still buy my cars for one simple reason, I’m unable to live in other people’s filth. I’ve rented lost of shared electric cars and sometimes you just want to drive it into the sea.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#287

Post by QuixoticQuibit »

sixQuarks wrote: post #141
vegannet wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll take that bet. How much? I’m not anti-Tesla but I do see Tesla as a brand more than a technology company: good for business but not good good for breaking new ground with technology — I’d put a lot against Tesla on that bet (I don’t think it matters for the business much though).

I say we do $1,000, but what did you have in mind? We will have to put the bets in escrow We need to agree to what constitutes full level 5 self driving. My interpretation of it is a car that can drive itself anywhere in the world, has been approved for commercial use in at least one country, AND recognized as the first to full self driving in at least 2 major publications. We can put a 5 year time limit on the bet.

L5 under those conditions won’t be achieved in 5 years. Might as well not make the bet.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#288

Post by rendall »

justapassenger wrote: post #60
ra7 wrote: post #26

I think the FSD beta rollout is completely irresponsible from Tesla. Rolling out a clearly half-baked safety critical technology to its customers (yes, I know it's only a few beta testers) who are untrained is nothing but a tactic to generate hype and get more customers to buy that $10k FSD package. This is on top of Tesla being the least transparent company out there in reporting safety data or their testing methodo…

FSD rollout is purely driven by Elon’s ego. He’s addicted to fame and power, and that comes from image he created of himself being an Iron Man. I’m pretty sure he got to a point where he believes in it, and thinks he’s invincible and can solve any problem, because he’s so much smarter than everyone. Stock bubble making wealthiest man only helped to solidify that.

> FSD rollout is purely driven by Elon’s ego. He’s addicted to fame and power...

Whoa. You have strong feelings.

One of my Life Rules that has served me enduringly well is to avoid believing that I can confidently have real insight into what motives drive someone. That rule is not for their benefit, but for my own: to putatively "know" something is to invite an incorrect model of reality and thereby incorrect action. It doesn't actually matter what drives Musk or anyone else: ego, pure business interests, a desire to take humanity to the stars, boredom, pathology, space ghosts, whatever. What matters is behavior and its effects.

If you criticize Musk's ego, ambition, pride, there's nothing actionable for anyone, neither Musk himself nor Tesla's potential customers. If you criticize the Tesla FSD rollout, now there's something people can do.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#289

Post by username90 »

epistasis wrote: post #221
cromwellian wrote: post #194

Watching this video of regular folk (not tech journalists or other "reviewers", or paid PR) riding in FSD Waymo has done a lot to reduce my "but it'll never happen" feeling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAZ6tJSj9T4 It may very well be that future FSD modes will require highly detailed maps, manual curation, limited areas where things can work, but even that would be valuable. e.g. if self driving trucks only work…

Huh, I'm surprised you find those videos convincing about the future of self driving cars. To me, they don't seem much better than the demos people were giving ten years ago, in academic competitions, etc. The Tesla videos scare the hell out of me. My own auto pilot purchase scares me whenever I use it. I can't even use cruise control in my Tesla without it randomly slamming on the brakes. It's pretty straightforward…

You don't think that driving actual customers is different from showing a demo that worked in a few cases?

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#290

Post by jfoster »

epistasis wrote: post #221
cromwellian wrote: post #194

Watching this video of regular folk (not tech journalists or other "reviewers", or paid PR) riding in FSD Waymo has done a lot to reduce my "but it'll never happen" feeling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAZ6tJSj9T4 It may very well be that future FSD modes will require highly detailed maps, manual curation, limited areas where things can work, but even that would be valuable. e.g. if self driving trucks only work…

Huh, I'm surprised you find those videos convincing about the future of self driving cars. To me, they don't seem much better than the demos people were giving ten years ago, in academic competitions, etc. The Tesla videos scare the hell out of me. My own auto pilot purchase scares me whenever I use it. I can't even use cruise control in my Tesla without it randomly slamming on the brakes. It's pretty straightforward…

Why do you choose to drive a car where you think the people created it are more crazy than competent?
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