281–290 of 292 posts
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This is bad reasoning. If everyone produces less by the same amount, then even if you produce no less than the next person, the overall production has gone down.
This assumes public schools are so efficient that losing be 8% will be impactful? I just don’t see it.
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My opinion is that people are tired of the orders and that they will not change people’s behaviors.
So we should give up and let the hospitals collapse and an extra few tens of thousands of California residents die?
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It is dense, multi family housing and having to work at jobs that expose you to other people. It isn’t directly race or age.
Well, yeah, those are the factors for which race and age (and wealth) serve a pretty direct proxy in the U.S.
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This assumes public schools are so efficient that losing be 8% will be impactful? I just don’t see it.
I am worried about socialization besides schooling.
Even the 12 year olds I work with who had many years of schooling have had to readapt to meet (greatly relaxed) expectations for in person instruction with several missed months. A whole bunch of 2nd graders with a wasted end of Kinder and 1st grade year is going to be chaotic.
Depression is on a big swing upwards. And there's kids in difficult situations who are not receiving help from caring teachers and social workers. There is going to be impact that lasts for a long, long time.
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Unfortunately i'm about 160 years too late - the zest was added by Darwin. Covid itself is a result of such accelerated selection performed in that Wuhan lab - what is called "gain of function" experiments. A natural example of a global virus evolution phenomenon was observed in the 2nd wave of Spanish flu - that strain was mostly killing by causing hyper-reaction of immune system and especially in the healthy 20-50…
I'd like to see actual evidence that Covid does in fact come from "gain of function" experiments in the Wuhan lab. So far as I could see, your reference doesn't do that.
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My opinion is that people are tired of the orders and that they will not change people’s behaviors.
What makes you think this is a belief held by a large number of people, rather than a vocal minority?
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I'd like to see actual evidence that Covid does in fact come from "gain of function" experiments in the Wuhan lab. So far as I could see, your reference doesn't do that.
Considering 1. the concerns that had been raised about that research in general (and so such a research was halted in US, and US granted funds to that research in Wuhan instead) as well as about safety specifically in those Wuhan labs and 2. exceptional coincidence in time and space I think the onus in on the labs to prove it isn't their virus or at least come maximally open about their situation. If anything we've s…
When I asked you for evidence, you try to reverse the burden of proof. No, you made the claim, you're the one who's supposed to prove something.
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While it's still going to be a very real number, I think you are overestimating the number of deaths considerably. I appreciate that you provided a link, but I don't think that source includes the information you would need to make the estimate you are looking for. First, I think that you are implicitly assuming that there are an equal number of people in each age category. In addition to the percentages you quote, y…
I simply did percent_dead times num_dead/percent_cases times num_cases. That leads to ~0.5%. I agree with you that IFR is unknowable without very thorough sero-survey. So all we have is CFR to go on. The ratio depends on population age and test availability etc.
So, this post suggests that lockdowns don't "work": among other things, a lockdown may create reactance causing people to not not only avoid changing their behaviors to reduce risk, it may even make some perform behaviors to increase risk, to themselves and others. It's just disappointing that, if true, the opposite doesn't work. If only this happened: the gov says "We choose to do no lockdowns, and just have a list…
And then somehow everything got wrong during summer. Ironically, because almost no one got sick during the first wave, it became popular to believe that the entire pandemic is just made up by evil Western media. People took vacations all across the world, and in September shared the viruses at schools, which were no longer closed because "education is important".
In the beginning of September, the situation was worse than ever during the first wave, and the government did nothing. In October it was 20 times higher, and in the beginning of Novermber the goverment finally woke up and imposed some half-assed measures, which at least keep the infection rate constant (i.e. still 20 times higher than during the first wave).
Not sure what is the lesson here. Perhaps that reverse psychology can work for a while... and then it may revert again. Because if it is cool to be a contrarian and oppose the government, soon this opposition becomes the new normal, and then it becomes cool to oppose what was done yesterday. And also that the better you protect yourself against a disease, the more people will believe the disease was not real.