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ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

bbc.co.uk

281–290 of 466 posts

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#281
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also a fusion power fanboy but >nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone This is just not true, there's no way you can say this. Solar costs are going down massively. Hydro is dirt cheap already. So renewables can absolutely be part of an energetic transition in the near future, while fusion is a…

Hydro is actually pretty bad in terms of big safety incidents (Banqiao: 171000 dead, Machchu: 5000 dead, South Fork: 2208 dead) and solar/wind have trouble beating nuclear on metrics like death/watt because you need lots of infrastructure per watt. Picture a few large cities with contractors running around every roof tending to solar panels and compare to a few experts at a single nuclear power plant. For the contrac…

>For the contractors-on-roofs, the slip & falls add up even though they'll never get an HBO mini-series.

Are solar roofs significantly more dangerous to work on than a normal roof for some reason? Roofs are going up whether they have panels or not.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#283

18b doesn't seem like a huge amount of money these days with the economic stimulus funds being announced around covid-19.

For some reason I often think about things like this in terms of NHS budgets. 18bn is, very roughly, 2 years of healthcare for London.

Or like three pre-launch startups

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the main issue and I don't want to make it any more complicated. But I do want to explain something because people hear arguments between fusion scientists. Within the field no one really doubts that ITER is going to work (there's a few, of course, but the majority don't doubt). The thing they are arguing over is if it is needed. The big reason for ITER is not to generate power but to demonstrate that sustain…

> investing would skyrocket (a government would have to be dumb not to substantially invest in PROVEN fusion devices). Even if it is proven to work that's no proof that it's economically sustainable. The enormous complexity and required scale are huge barriers to adoption. Most of the advantages of fusion reactors are already enjoyed by fission reactors, and it's not like the fusion reactors are going to have that mu…

> Even if it is proven to work that's no proof that it's economically sustainable.

If it is proven to work, then it removes one of the key unknowns: Does it work?

If it can produce more power than it consumes, then it's ahead of the smaller demonstration reactors that have already been built and demonstrated.

> The enormous complexity and required scale are huge barriers to adoption.

Hence they're building this one.

> Most of the advantages of fusion reactors are already enjoyed by fission reactors,

Say what? What do you think the advantages of fusion reactors are, and same question for fission reactors?

> and it's not like the fusion reactors are going to have that much of an easier time managing public perception. "They're building a H-Bomb in your back yard!"

'This reactor can be built far enough away that even if it explodes - and it can't - you won't notice. You won't notice it going off, and you won't notice cancer and birth defects, vast tracts of land cordoned off, water sources rendered toxic, etc for the next few hundred years. And we don't have to bury the waste product somewhere for a millennia or more.'

Sounds like a much easier sell.

> Worse, since fusion reactors aren't useful for making bombs government investment is basically guaranteed to be tepid.

How many power stations are owned by governments around the western world today?

It feels like most of the interesting things happening in high tech now are all privately funded. If / when this works, and there's money in it, government lack of interest due to inability to make bombs from it (and that all sounds dubious to me) is irrelevant.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you mention about billionaires paying for it piques me especially. For someone like Gates, Bezos, Zuckerberg or any number of other ultra rich individuals, the PR value of simply stating that they will themselves pay for such a collider up to the cost of its proposed budget (maybe so long as some organization or government promises to cover any cost overruns, or overruns beyond a certain percentage) would be eno…

Wow. You think that the Gates Foundation has complications and conflicts of interest, and you think that a mega-science project would be free of those ? I mean, first of all, mega-science is just as prone to grift and mismanagement as any other type of mega-project, and far more so than vaccine programs or malaria treatment. And just imagine, what would the absurd conspiracy theory nuts say about a supercollider? Of…

You're right that something like a super collider could produce its own major opportunities for graft and corruption, but because it's a single project with a single construction to production timeline and a much more specific budget proposal, it doesn't quite compare to the endlessly fluid, highly organic and always adaptive nature of many long running billionaire foundations.

So no, I didn't quite prove the idea of its PR value false. Conspiracy nuts will always find a reason to consider anything made by some people or groups as suspect or outright nefarious, no matter how straightforward it is. but foundations oriented towards education, medical research and healthcare for the developing world are easily much more prone to that kind of narrative manipulation than a fixed, specific and extremely complex scientific device that will be used for a more limited range of possible things over a certain period of time.

The same applies to the differences in opportunities for graft and corruption between the two: Dishonest contractors and consultants could find ways to milk a privately funded super collider project during its construction and even during administration, but the scope of their opportunities would be fairly limited beyond a certain point, especially if the (presumably not stupid) billionaire funding it is keeping an eye on details.

Imagine on the other hand how many opportunities something like the Gates Foundation could offer for bad financial administration down the decades after its creator and main benefactor dies of old age or etc. Most of the collider's budget as covered by a billionaire in my scenario above will be a single sunk cost spent during a very limited period of time. The endowment of a giant foundation with flexible goals can on the other hand be managed (or mismanaged) ambiguously for decades.

The two things are not the same either administratively or philosophically.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#286
To have a sense of scale, it would be super cool if someone could make a photo montage with some aerial pictures from https://www.iter.org/album/Media/4%20-%20Aerial and some other big known structures.

Maybe one of the Tesla Giga factory on top of the same picture (correctly scaled of course) ?

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#287
I have such mixed feelings about ITER. I hope we learn the things we want to from it, and that what we learn is good news. But ITER is very far from being a demonstration of a practical power plant -- it's a science experiment first and foremost. (Well, it has really been an experiment in international government cooperation...)

I'm concerned that fusion research could have an 'AI winter' if there are any problems with ITER. (Similar to what has happened to inertial fusion in the failure of NIF to achieve ignition.) On the bright side, I think Commonwealth's SPARC experiment has a chance of beating ITER to hit 'scientific' break-even (Q>1) -- although ITER should top out around Q=10-20, where SPARC is aiming for Q~4. (Q~20 is needed for a power plant.)

The issue of 'disruptions' (rapid unscheduled disassembly of the plasma) has not been solved. ITER's construction was premised on the idea that we need it to be solved, so therefore it will get solved. The situation is very similar to that of self-driving cars -- avoiding 90% of disruptions seems pretty doable, but a percent or so happen without warning.(https://fusion4freedom.com/pdfs/Disruption-Risk-poster-Wurde...)

I hope that people don't get the wrong idea about fusion from ITER. Fusion reactors don't scale down well, but they also don't have to be quite as large, slow, and expensive as ITER. Tokamaks only use about 10% of the available magnetic field pressure, which means about 100x less power density than is theoretically possible, for a given magnetic field strength. Also, ITER is limited by its superconductors to about 5T. REBCO superconductors could potentially triple that, which would increase power density 81 times. So, there is a ton of headroom to improve performance -- dealing with the outflux of power becomes the major issue, actually.

Ultimately, fusion is a long way from market still. It's hard to innovate rapidly with devices that cost billions and have life-cycles of decades. Private enterprises are pushing down on those numbers, though -- that's where I'm pinning my hopes. Given that renewables are approaching grid parity, it looks like the goalposts will start receding before fusion even achieves net power production.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#288
So many fusion sceptics in the comments that it sounds like a congregation of anti-vaxxers. Funding for fusion has been ridiculously low for decades and it's exactly because of sceptics with myopathy like the ones present here.

Countries could've been pumping trillions into fusion and other clean energy, together, for years, but we'd rather vote for politicians willing to bomb the oil out of a poorer nation than think more than a decade or more ahead. Now that climate change is finally becoming more of a reality, the myopathic sceptics are turning into temporal sceptics "but we won't have enough time". People like them create the issues we have and every time a solution is proposed, they'll cast doubt.

I'm glad things are moving along at all. I say stop oil, petrol, gas subsidies in every country, and get out of countries you all shouldn't be sticking your noses in. Invest in something that will actually let your grandchildren inhabit a planet with less friction and a much smaller threat to their way of life (climate change, overfishing, plastic pollution, etc.). Stop being so selfish.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#289
post #276

“We hope to see first plasma in five years. That will only be a short plasma - lasting a few milliseconds” this is a quote from original article.I was wondering why `few milliseconds` can make such a huge impact?What does this `few milliseconds` plasma mean?

You gotta start somewhere! The plasma discharges will eventually last several minutes, but they will 'exercise' the machine very carefully/gradually over the course of a few years to be sure that nothing breaks.

Re: ITER: World's largest nuclear fusion project begins assembly

#290
post #7

I am going to need some help on this one as my knowledge on physics is limited: What makes scientists believe that the solution to nuclear fusion power is only a matter of scale? I desperately want nuclear fusion to work because nuclear power is the only realistic way to solve the looming energy crisis of the 21st century while still maintaining the same standard of living for everyone. It's also 500% more important…

> What makes scientists believe that the solution to nuclear fusion power is only a matter of scale?

The sun is nuclear fusion, so it is proven to work if your scale is big enough ;-)

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