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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#281

Post by gbear605 »

gshubert17 wrote: post #233
sytelus wrote: post #200

Meanwhile stock market is preparing to for its record high :).

> Meanwhile stock market is preparing to for its record high :) Yes, and I don't understand it. The S&P500 is within 8% of its all-time high (3393). Even without a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths, the current levels of unemployment, defaults, and bankruptices, I can't see what supports these asset price levels. Any ideas?

Part of it is that there’s nowhere else to put the money. Currently we’re in a situation where no one has a way that they can spend money to make more of it.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#282

Post by MiroF »

ed25519FUUU wrote: post #14
mullingitover wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Savings rates are through the roof right now, I would worry more about a deflation spiral.

You may be biased as a WFH/silicon valley type (continuing to produce income despite shelter at home). The median checking account balance was $3,400 in 2019, and that was before COVID19 struck. There's a lot of people who were already barely hanging on, and now covid and demonstrations have pulled the rug out from under them. We're only 2 months in. Things will get worse before they get better. 1. https://www.valuep…

This is entirely unresponsive to the parent and really only further demonstrates the point that deflationary pressure is the real risk here, not absurd claims of "hyperinflation."

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#283

Post by xenospn »

busyant wrote: post #267
ianlevesque wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These stories that come out of the woodwork every time tenants are mentioned are why I’ll never be a landlord.

> These stories that come out of the woodwork every time tenants are mentioned are why I’ll never be a landlord. My wife and I own a number of (8) rental properties. My wife manages them and we rarely have problems with tenants. I will tell you what I think is the secret. My wife figuratively crawls up the ass of all prospective tenants. She needs to see credit history, pay stubs, and proof of punctual rent payments…

Last time I rented from a private person, they asked me for some basic information. I sent them my last 3 pay stubs and a credit check in a short email. They accepted me on the spot, and said most people can't even manage to write a proper email.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#284

Post by rubidium »

colejohnson66 wrote: post #239
devado wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The starting price of this is 28k per edmunds. That is quite expensive (even for someone from tech sector).

$28000 for a car is cheap , especially for a truck. For comparison, the 2020 Honda Civic starts at just shy of $20000.

Unless you need the carrying capacity to survive, $28,000 for a car is expensive. Buy a low mileage, older sedan for $5000-$7000. It’ll last 10 years and rarely have problems.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#285

Post by mindslight »

arberx wrote: post #6
0x8BADF00D wrote: post #2

Yet the S&P500 is still green. The Fed continues to print in order to delay the inevitable. Either a currency crisis or hyperinflation.

Or deflation, a bigger worry as consumers might be expecting lower prices in the future and delaying purchases. Leading to a deflationary spiral.

Given the natural resource depletion caused by our economy, plus technological progress implying that we all should be working less, how is this remotely worrying? We've had strong deflation in the tech sector for over four decades, and the results have been fantastic.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#286

Post by MiroF »

0x8BADF00D wrote: post #2

Yet the S&P500 is still green. The Fed continues to print in order to delay the inevitable. Either a currency crisis or hyperinflation.

The Fed targets inflation and can do so pretty precisely - massive amounts of QE are in order to combat deflationary pressure in the economy right now.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#287

Post by jungletime »

drewmol wrote: post #270
jungletime wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're very lucky. Rented to a single mother with two teenage sons. The teenage sons that decided to strip down living trees of their branches, to make bonfires for parties in the backyard. Two trees are severely damaged, and anything that was burnable in the landscape is burnt. I don't even know how to go about pricing out the damage. Insurance is paying for their rent, because the last house they lived in burned do…

How big is the tree? Beavers cause this type damage and they also can't be reasoned with. If it's small enough to reach 60% of the bark just have it cut down and into pieces. It seems to make good enough firewood for them, hopefully the'll burn through most of it and you can plant a new tree in the ashes next month?

The pine tree is fully mature, maybe 40+ feet high. Its the one with the most damage to its bark. Too big for me to cut down on my own. Its also next to a fence. The blue spruce I could cut down.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#288

Post by asjw »

thephyber wrote: post #180
tinza123 wrote: post #62

As a passive real estate investor I'm seeing bidding on new sales has actually been more competitive than ever in my area (Atlanta GA). A lot of houses are selling above asking prices with 8-10 offers on the table. I am not sure if people genuinely think it is a good time to buy, or is it mostly FOMO.

I think people who can work from home and who didn't get laid off are fine and the stonks appeared to mostly recover (which may explain some of the money sloshing around the market). I think there will be massive economic damage in 6 months that we aren't focusing on right now.

That's my understanding as well.

My wife started a co-working space January this year, it was her office and the co-working bit was to save on the rent with a prediction of some profit in a year or two.

Then covid happened, so we gave our notice to the landlord and are looking for a bigger house, with a spare room she can use as an home-office

We're saving money from the office rent and investing them in a less potentially profitable solution, but safer, at least for the moment.

Apparently this is a thing not just here, but it's global.

I think that's gonna keep the market alive for the next few months, I really can't say what could happen after that.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#289

Post by gen220 »

qchris wrote: post #248
notJim wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are that many people really moving away? I understand the logic, but it's a major life decision, so I'm surprised if it's happening so rapidly in response to covid. I've heard of people leaving the city temporarily, but assumed many of them were maintaining their apartments. I would have guessed the lower rents were more about money drying up, and landlords being desperate to hang onto any tenant who can pay.

Anecdotally, I know two professionals in their late twenties who used to live in New York City, but moved home to be with their family during quarantine. Their leases are up in September, and neither one seem likely to renew, since their jobs can be done remotely and their offices are planning on maintaining the status quo for the forseeable future, past the point when many people usually sign leases. I don't have da…

We're in a similar situation in our household. Our jobs are remote until (at least) 2021/1/1. Our lease is up in December, instead of June/July (unfortunately for us!).

In our case, instead of moving away, we'd be pouncing on the way-below-baseline price, high-quality rentals that have been popping up for the last couple months.

The market's totally inverted. It used to be that if deals like these appeared, they'd be snapped up within 48 hours or less. Nowadays, they linger for days and even weeks in some cases.

To clarify, I've been tracking 1-2BR apartments in the Clinton Hill-Brooklyn Heights-Park Slope-Carrol Gardens quadrangle. I've heard that other neighborhoods are popping in the other direction, but I don't follow them as avidly.

This crisis is terrible in many ways, but it's also a perfect opportunity to find your long-term rental "forever-apartment", if your lease is up.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#290

Post by MiroF »

boromi wrote: post #3
0x8BADF00D wrote: post #2

Yet the S&P500 is still green. The Fed continues to print in order to delay the inevitable. Either a currency crisis or hyperinflation.

Bingo, there's also been a huge influx of retail investors fueling the earlier Bull rise

This is just not how the stock market works. "More investors" doesn't trigger price increases.
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